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[SHAD0Wdump]

Well by the time we'd get space tankers I'd think we'd have space refineries.

[DJ]

Now I know oil isn't much better, but my point is that at our current level of technological prowess and corruption, we should wait before making a major leap to alternate power sources.

The problem is, we can't wait. We have reached peak oil, which means the global economy has peaked. The only way from here is down, and that implies stuff like wars, mass starvation (did you know it takes 10 calories of fossil fuel to produce one calorie of food?) and general chaos.

I didn't read much else after this, but like...

Are you sure you have your unit conversions right?  A "Food Calorie" is actually a kilo-calorie of energy...  So I could understand if 10 calories of fossil fuel could produce one (kilo)calorie of food...

But then again I could be wrong.

Nope, it really is a ten to one ratio. The figure includes energy costs of running the farm mechanization, fertilizers, irrigation, processing the food and finally transporting and storing it. Here's a quote from that site I linked to:

In the U.S., up to 20 percent of the country's fossil fuel consumption goes into the food chain which points out that fossil fuel use by the food system in the developed world "often rivals that of automobiles". To feed an average family of four in the developed world uses up the equivalent of 930 gallons of gasoline a year - just shy of the 1,070 gallons that same family would use up each year to power their cars.

[PTTG??]

Please. We have been claiming to reach peak oil for many, MANY years now. The only difference now is that the sources we have been depending on for a long time have...

 Actually, I can't think of an oil well that is drying up now...

Actually, there have been several "oil peaks"
There was the Texas oil peak and the United States oil peak. These are what you're thinking of. Texas and the rest of the US have been producing less and less oil ever since the 70's and 80's. What we are approaching- and may have already passed- is the WORLD production peak. Particularly, Saudi and Mexican oil fields. There are some places that may have as much as a decade of growth left in them, but they won't keep up with the declining global production.

There won't be riots. There won't be wars. There won't be starvation.
...Immediately.

Oil Prices will tend to increase (though not continuously- there are variations in this and short term drops are guaranteed), and alternatives, most likely a combination of small fuel sources, will arise. These will most likely not be as much as oil produces, but they will be close.

The real effects will be subtle but universal. A few things you might expect:
-Air Travel will be rarer: You can't make an electric airplane with current technology; and though fuels will be available that can run jets and aircraft, they will be more expensive, so only the wealthy will fly (until new technology is developed)
-International Trade will slow: those big boats need a lot of fuel. There will be alternatives, but these will take some time to adapt to and be expensive. Thus, more "made in the USA" stickers.
-Food will be local-grown: With fewer(not absent) Trucking and shipping, you'll see less food coming from CA in NY. And less SoCa food in NoCa. The funny thing is that organic foods will increase in price less than, well, inorganic food; you may get healthier.
-More jobs: On the farm. Whee. Beats McDonald's, though. The differece is that these farms will be smaller and closer to home.
-You will have a generator and a well: It's going to get less profitable to run the Electric company and the Water company. They will decrease service and many people at the edge of the grid will drop off entirely. Rolling black-outs may occur until new power sources are used.

It's not the end of the word, it's just annother change, and not too bad at that.

[JoshuaFH]

subsidiary farming? Yay, we're back in the feudal era!

Now all we'd need for the energy apocalypse is to have lords, knights, fiefdoms, Kings, and religion that rules every aspect of our lives! Maybe throw in a plague or two and our serfdom will be complete.

come on guys, it'll be just like the bad old days!

[DJ]

The thing is, we are utterly reliant on fossil fuels for our agriculture. There's a reason why Earth's population was pretty much stagnant before the industrial revolution. Without oil, we can produce maybe 1/5th of the food we need.

[Sergius]

The great thing about electric engines is that the power comes from the city (fed by a big power plant, probably nuclear), so we'll start using electrical tractors, etc. We can fix the air and sea problem by making nuclear powered boats and airplanes!

[Sean Mirrsen]

Or magnarotors (sorry, I'm a little fixated on magnetism). Even if magnets can't fuel a renewable energy source, then can damn well be a medium for one. Depleted magnets can be 'recharged' (at "clean" energy sources like hydropowerplants or desert-based solar furnaces), and are fairly cheap. Even if a typical set of rare-earth magnets lasts one month inside a car - that's still a car running for one month between 'refuel' cycles. Practical applications can easily be found, the problem is that everyone labels magnetism-based devices as free energy and throws them into the "impossible or impractical" bin.

[Tylui]

Now I know oil isn't much better, but my point is that at our current level of technological prowess and corruption, we should wait before making a major leap to alternate power sources.

The problem is, we can't wait. We have reached peak oil, which means the global economy has peaked. The only way from here is down, and that implies stuff like wars, mass starvation (did you know it takes 10 calories of fossil fuel to produce one calorie of food?) and general chaos.

I didn't read much else after this, but like...

Are you sure you have your unit conversions right?  A "Food Calorie" is actually a kilo-calorie of energy...  So I could understand if 10 calories of fossil fuel could produce one (kilo)calorie of food...

But then again I could be wrong.

Nope, it really is a ten to one ratio. The figure includes energy costs of running the farm mechanization, fertilizers, irrigation, processing the food and finally transporting and storing it. Here's a quote from that site I linked to:

In the U.S., up to 20 percent of the country's fossil fuel consumption goes into the food chain which points out that fossil fuel use by the food system in the developed world "often rivals that of automobiles". To feed an average family of four in the developed world uses up the equivalent of 930 gallons of gasoline a year - just shy of the 1,070 gallons that same family would use up each year to power their cars.

Wow, that's crazy.  Not to mention ridiculous...

[DJ]

Are you doubting the numbers? The guy that runs that site cites sources for all of his claims. His source for that particular claim was CNN, which I consider fairly reliable, as sources go.

[Tylui]

Nah, I trust the numbers.  I was just saying that it's ridiculous because I've never heard of the fact that it takes a lot more energy to make food than we gain from it.  It's not supposed to be that way.  Haha.  It's completely counter-intuitive.

[Jreengus]

Well if you want to drink your oil pure be my guest.

[DJ]

The fact that it takes so much oil to produce food is the reason why we're so screwed by peak oil. World population continues to grow at an alarming pace while food production stagnates, and in time decreases. This will lead to a huge increase in food prices, and that can't be good for anyone.

As for electric tractors and stuff - it's a pipe dream. It takes a lot of oil to mine metal, smelt it and process it into electronics (there are a lot of steps involved, and they all require energy). Not to mention that we're also facing a metal crisis, and making all those electronics would take a lot of metal. Copper, for example, has quadrupled in price over the past five years because Chilean copper mines are running out, and they are the source of over one third of world's copper ore.

[A_Fey_Dwarf]

It takes a lot of oil to mine metal, smelt it and process it into electronics (there are a lot of steps involved, and they all require energy).

Very true, about a 1/5th of all power consumed in New Zealand is by just one aluminum smelter.

[Il Palazzo]

Ok, mr. Sean Mirrsen, would you mind providing some more info on those magnet-motors of yours? Some article maybe, describing the principle on which they're supposed to work, so we can asses their suitability(or just call them impossible)?

[Sean Mirrsen]

That's the whole point, no real guide to creating one exists, most just denounce the possibility of one being made.

There are several basic problems with making a magnarotor work.

One is that the entire mechanism must be nonmetallic, as magnetism will induce electric currents and heat up metal, reducing effectiveness and possibly degrading the magnets with the heat.

The other, most important one, is the zero point problem. To work, a magnetic motor must be able to somehow circumvent the repulsion force and the oddities in the shape of the magnetic field that attempt to stop the mechanism's rotation (effectively compensating the initial impulse and fulfilling the principle of conservation of energy) at the starting point. I have no practical model, but it's quite obvious that just sticking a row of magnets onto a rotating ring with some other magnets to rotate alongside them isn't going to work.

I'm more inclined toward the reciprocator design, as in similar to an internal combustion engine, with pistons. If specific placement or a special mechanism can orient one magnet so that it approaches another at a point where they attempt to push each other apart, thus forcing the motion further - then this is going to work. Think a set of pistons on a fixed base sharing an axis with a large ring housing one or two magnets specially synced with the others to approach them in the described manner. It doesn't violate the second law of thermodynamics, because if there is energy stored in the magnet this process will just extract the energy and deplete the magnet - and if there isn't and the magnet indeed funnels some kind of "ether" through it - then you've just harnessed another force of nature, jobwelldoneetcetc.

Mind you, this is all speculation based on common sense and observation, not on any scientific knowledge.