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Author Topic: A Mischief of Birbs: Forgotten in the Night: Mafia Victory  (Read 9544 times)

hector13

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Re: A Mischief of Birbs: Day 2 - Slip a bird on the barbie (4/6)
« Reply #135 on: December 08, 2023, 01:14:07 pm »

There is town valuable discussion here, but by discussing results, not strategy. We wasted a big chunk of D1 discussing your strategy, and I don’t want D2 to get bogged down in discussing something NAI than actual mechanical information.

You are right in one thing though: scum doesn’t know who the other players visited, which means they have zero knowledge of the space they have to fakeclaim their action.

Claiming who you visited but not the result reduces that space because it means the scum can’t fakeclaim without risk of being outed via a lie.

We need to find the scum, not piss about discussing the finer points of strategy.
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Egan_BW

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Re: A Mischief of Birbs: Day 2 - Slip a bird on the barbie (4/6)
« Reply #136 on: December 08, 2023, 02:31:26 pm »

I also visited max.
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Imp

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Re: A Mischief of Birbs: Day 2 - Slip a bird on the barbie (4/6)
« Reply #137 on: December 08, 2023, 02:51:45 pm »

And absolutely no discussion at all of my proposal, interesting.

From someone who didn't discuss why they saw scummy folks scummy.

And we're not discussing.

Joy.

My thoughts:

Alright.  I visited Hector.

To my thinking, unless Cry says they visited me, none of us can be considered confirmed town.  If Cry's town and says Imp visited Hec, yay, Imp town.  If Cry's Scum and says Imp visited Hec, yay, Imp town.

if Cry visited anyone else, it's either someone who visited Max or it's Max, so can't confirm anything.

If Cry confirms me town, then time for me to die tonight, surely.

If Cry can't confirm me town/visited Hec, then none of us are confirmed to anyone else.

What I think of No Lynch today vs tomorrow:

Presuming I'm not confirmed by Cry, then anyone we agree to lynch today has a 1/3 chance of being scum for the town voters.
Presuming I am confirmed by Cry, then to me anyone we agree to lynch today has a 1/3 chance of being scum for the town voters, the rest of you it's a 1/2 chance of being to the town voter...

Presuming confirmed town dies tonight, or nobody's confirmed town, and we have a death tonight, then the town survivors have a 1/2 chance of voting scum.

I don't see a track cycle saving town.

Let's say all 4 of us go into night, A inspects B inspects C inspect D inspects A - if scum is A then scum kills D, known to be visited by C.  B confirms C visited D.  D can't confirm who A visited.  C confirms they went to D.  A claims they went to B.  A is scum, but who can prove it?  B is confirmed town and must pick between lynching A and C.

it's still all guess.

So we need to be talking, please.

Many of you are more experienced than me.  3 of us are town.  Townies, can you help save your town, please?
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Egan_BW

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Re: A Mischief of Birbs: Day 2 - Slip a bird on the barbie (4/6)
« Reply #138 on: December 08, 2023, 03:11:45 pm »

tldr
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Imp

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Re: A Mischief of Birbs: Day 2 - Slip a bird on the barbie (4/6)
« Reply #139 on: December 08, 2023, 03:15:00 pm »

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For every trouble under the sun, there is an answer, or there is none.
If there is one, then seek until you find it.
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Egan_BW

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Re: A Mischief of Birbs: Day 2 - Slip a bird on the barbie (4/6)
« Reply #140 on: December 08, 2023, 03:16:54 pm »

What you should be asking is "what should we do", which is a different question because I think it's silly to crunch a bunch of numbers for the sake of winning a silly fun social game.

So I'll propose that we all reveal our track results and then decide on who to murder. I visited Max, who visited me.
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hector13

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Re: A Mischief of Birbs: Day 2 - Slip a bird on the barbie (4/6)
« Reply #141 on: December 08, 2023, 03:21:29 pm »

What exactly is not being discussed? We have three claims so far, two of which are the same. I know the response Egan needs to give to be cleared by me, because I know who Max visited. I don’t want that to be outed until CM posts though.

PPE: never mind then. That gels with what I have.

So, it looks like Egan and I can clear each other (or I can clear Egan, as he said it first) so that makes my life easier for choosing between CM and Imp.

But yeah, Egan is correct in the assertion that doing maths isn’t going to help us figure out who is town a scum. There’s the whole of D1 to go over, and CM needs to post a bit more today so we can figure them out. There’s no need to panic.
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Imp

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Re: A Mischief of Birbs: Day 2 - Slip a bird on the barbie (4/6)
« Reply #142 on: December 08, 2023, 03:29:11 pm »

So, it looks like Egan and I can clear each other (or I can clear Egan, as he said it first) so that makes my life easier for choosing between CM and Imp.

How are Egan and you clearing each other?

If you're both town, great.

If one of you is scum that said, I will honestly say I visited Max - what prevents that from being the case?  How are either of you cleared?
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hector13

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Re: A Mischief of Birbs: Day 2 - Slip a bird on the barbie (4/6)
« Reply #143 on: December 08, 2023, 03:34:48 pm »

Egan is clearing himself in my eyes because I visited Max and got that Max visited Egan. If he got that result, he didn’t kill him.

I seconded that, which could just be me copying Egan. Frankly it doesn’t make that much of a difference to me if I’m cleared or not.

Are you saying you visited Max, not me?
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If you struggle with your mental health, please seek help.

Imp

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Re: A Mischief of Birbs: Day 2 - Slip a bird on the barbie (4/6)
« Reply #144 on: December 08, 2023, 03:37:45 pm »

Are you saying you visited Max, not me?
Alright.  I visited Hector.

WIFOM is strong.  I can see it either way.  What I do not see is clear 'clearly both have confirmed each other'.
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For every trouble under the sun, there is an answer, or there is none.
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Crystalizedmire

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Re: A Mischief of Birbs: Day 2 - Slip a bird on the barbie (4/6)
« Reply #145 on: December 08, 2023, 03:40:19 pm »

I visited Hector
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hector13

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Re: A Mischief of Birbs: Day 2 - Slip a bird on the barbie (4/6)
« Reply #146 on: December 08, 2023, 03:42:31 pm »

Are you saying you visited Max, not me?
Alright.  I visited Hector.

WIFOM is strong.  I can see it either way.  What I do not see is clear 'clearly both have confirmed each other'.

I will honestly say I visited Max

You started it, sunshine.

Though having read it again, you appear to be speaking for Egan or me.

Punctuation, or the lack thereof, has meaning, speech marks are your friend.

Egan tracked Max. That means he didn’t kill him.
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Imp

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Re: A Mischief of Birbs: Day 2 - Slip a bird on the barbie (4/6)
« Reply #147 on: December 08, 2023, 03:43:13 pm »

What you should be asking is "what should we do", which is a different question because I think it's silly to crunch a bunch of numbers for the sake of winning a silly fun social game.

So I'll propose that we all reveal our track results and then decide on who to murder. I visited Max, who visited me.

Okay.  Everyone revealed track results.

Should we just decide who to murder now?

How should that be decided?
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For every trouble under the sun, there is an answer, or there is none.
If there is one, then seek until you find it.
If there is none, then never ever mind it.

hector13

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Re: A Mischief of Birbs: Day 2 - Slip a bird on the barbie (4/6)
« Reply #148 on: December 08, 2023, 03:44:01 pm »

Well, you both visited me. Am I lying about having visited Max?
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Look, we need to raise a psychopath who will murder God, we have no time to be spending on cooking.

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Imp

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Re: A Mischief of Birbs: Day 2 - Slip a bird on the barbie (4/6)
« Reply #149 on: December 08, 2023, 03:44:55 pm »

You started it, sunshine.
author=Imp link=topic=182243.msg8515634#msg8515634 date=1702067351]
If one of you is scum that said, I will honestly say I visited Max - what prevents that from being the case?  How are either of you cleared?
[/quote]

I see punctuation.  Did not intend to confuse, though.

What do you think we should do next?
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For every trouble under the sun, there is an answer, or there is none.
If there is one, then seek until you find it.
If there is none, then never ever mind it.
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