A dwarven caravan arrived, but 1 wagon got scuttled in the entry tunnel somehow. I didn't see it happen, but one of the merchants "didn't feel anything after seeing a wagon die." and there is a pile of forbidden stuff not too far from her. There was an announcement that the merchants have arrived and are unloading their goods, but only 1 wagon is there. The rest of the merchants / wagons stopped moving. There depot says there are no merchants trading right now. May have to deconstruct the depot to get them to leave.
A 3 tile wide entry tunnel goes through a light aquifer, and so there is occasionally 3/7 water on some tiles. I suspect this caused 1 of the wagons to swerve into the wall and turn into a pile of forbidden trade goods.
A previous year, the same sort of thing happened to the human caravan. Only it was a different tunnel, crowded with dwarves, and I assumed it was due to too many dwarves in the way. But that tunnel also went through a light aquifer. Now that there's a second data point, the common variable seems to be the presence of occasionally 3/7 water. Both happened at the bottom of the ramps. There are grates after a 1 tile flat spot at the bottom of the ramp, the same spacing for both tunnels. I don't think moving the grates closer would help, since I spotted 3/7 on 1 of the ramp tiles as well.
If I didn't already carve a lot of the fort around the path, I would try widening the trade route; so I'm going to have the dug out ramp tunnel replaced with a constructed one to keep it dry.