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[Strongpoint]

https://twitter.com/CinC_AFU/status/1662451731261796353

Russians, this is how you do motivational war propaganda. (It has too many "Holy  army of God" vibes for anti-theistic me but it is epic)

[jipehog]

There a lot of speculation that the counter offensive is imminent. In the last month we have seen an uptake of attacks of all kinds. Including infrastructure and supply depots across occupied territory and deep in Russia; Probing attacks to obtain information about enemy forces, identifying weak points and creating them e.g. there is an uptake in artillery units destroyed

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

more actions from Belgorod (with constant harassments ) to an attempt on Ivan khurs.

[jipehog]

‘The intensity is increasing’: Ukraine says first steps in counteroffensive have begun
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/27/first-operations-in-ukraine-counteroffensive-have-begun-says-top-official

Btw there are a lot of talks about Zaporizhzhya. Ukraine says that Russia could cause an incident in the nuclear power plant in a bid to thwart the expected counteroffensive by Ukraine

[EuchreJack]

I'm reasonably sure the "Counteroffensive" is going to be a probing attack that does well enough that it needs more support to maintain momentum.

[King Zultan]

I have a feeling that nuclear plant is gonna be a smoking ruin by the time this is all over.

[martinuzz]

Let's just really hope not. That thing is quite a bit bigger than Chernobyl, and even though it's mostly shut down, it's cores are still in need of active cooling.
Things blowing up there could still trigger a horrible disaster.

[Strongpoint]

I have a feeling that nuclear plant is gonna be a smoking ruin by the time this is all over.

Smoking ruin is extremely unlikely, but "minor" accident(s) are quite possible. Making the territory of the plant itself radioactive will benefit Russia both short term (delay the advance) and long term (make the further operation of the plant problematic)

Nova Kakhovka Dam is another thing that worries me. Russians may blow it up should we try to cross the Dnipro in the Kherson area.

[jipehog]

I'm reasonably sure the "Counteroffensive" is going to be a probing attack that does well enough that it needs more support to maintain momentum.

yeah, it will be a Schrodinger's counter-offensive. This time its tougher as there are no Kherson like area where Ukraine have an overwhelming conditions in its favor, with several lines fortifications in each direction and Russia managing to solve its critical shortage of manpower. Likely Ukraine will be focusing on grinding Russian forces capabilities trying to set the conditions for victory in any of their planned venues of advance and attempt to exploit any weakness.

[jipehog]

Russian Ministry of Economy to authorize a six-day work week for workers without offering additional pay in order to satisfy the demands of the wartime industrial complex

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Btw in Prigozhin recent interview he argued that Russia should institute martial law and go to war time footing closing down like North Korea. While he is too powerful to get thrown out of the window but subsequent to the new censorship edict even mention of his name will be considered as discrediting the Russian armed forced and subject to jail time. So he is more isolated than ever and the damage he is doing to the Russian propaganda is limited, judging by interviews most people never heard of him.

Ukrainian war song about trench warfare "Me, my buddy and 2 shovels" - nice chorus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9rljnSnIH8

Some footage of fighting over the access to Bakhmut, in sense its more gritty but less action packed than most
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LulaA-U7-M

[Strongpoint]

So, according to Russian sources, around a dozen of small drones "attacked" the Moscow region with a few of them hitting random buildings. Yeah, it is exactly how Ukraine uses those and it is entirely consistent with our strategy...

It is either a false flag or some local group that knows nothing about how to use their resources effectively.

I bet on the false flag because Russia is ramping out terror attacks on Kyiv with Shaheds and they need to feed "Ukrainians do that too." whataboutism.

[King Zultan]

So, according to Russian sources, around a dozen of small drones "attacked" the Moscow region with a few of them hitting random buildings. Yeah, it is exactly how Ukraine uses those and it is entirely consistent with our strategy...

It is either a false flag or some local group that knows nothing about how to use their resources effectively.

I'm guessing it's another false flag since Russia did this recently, not sure why they decided to do it again.

[Strongpoint]

So, according to Russian sources, around a dozen of small drones "attacked" the Moscow region with a few of them hitting random buildings. Yeah, it is exactly how Ukraine uses those and it is entirely consistent with our strategy...

It is either a false flag or some local group that knows nothing about how to use their resources effectively.

I'm guessing it's another false flag since Russia did this recently, not sure why they decided to do it again.

Well, some drones are definitely Ukrainian-made and not of the type Russia could capture intact, so I must change my assessment. I am curious what where the targets

[martinuzz]

False flag is not unlikely. Perhaps to dissuade Western nations from providing long range weapons.

[jipehog]

My guess is that those are Ukrainian drones[1] that either had technical difficulties or Russia have jammed/shootdown (there are videos of one blowing up in field) and Russia propaganda trying to frame the incident for their own devices.

This month Russia have conducted almost daily strikes against Ukraine with drones and missiles, the vast majority of which have been shoot down. I am not sure what their goal is in focusing on civilian rather than military targets at time when Ukraine is ramping up its attacks. Maybe its just psychological warfare or an attempt to exhaust American patriot system or 

Meanwhile Ukraine had some really nice success recently, not sure if its great intelligence or luck but reportedly the have made several strikes in which over 100 Russian solders were killed each time (conservative estimate)


[1] In recent days we seen several attempts of Ukraine to hit infrastructure buildings deeper inside Russia including around Moscow, not always successfuly for example. They are intentionally using long range drones rather than western weapons.

Btw how Ukraine operates drones at distances of 500km+? local operators? intermediary drones for signal boost? sat connection?

[Strongpoint]

False flag is not unlikely. Perhaps to dissuade Western nations from providing long range weapons.

It is not and it was my initial assumption but looking at the available evidence including some hints from guys who specialize in crowdfunding drones, I think it is a legit Ukrainian attack. It is of dubious effectiveness (Like those naval drones that fail to do real damage again and again. Last one, most likely, Mark14ed instead of adding to the Russian underwater fleet) but I think it is our attack that will not be publically admitted anytime soon.