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[scriver]

So speaking of troops sitting on routes, do you think them letting Wagner sit on Bakhmut while the Russian army retreats is to give the Russians time to prepare whatever the next defensive line will be?

[Strongpoint]

So speaking of troops sitting on routes, do you think them letting Wagner sit on Bakhmut while the Russian army retreats is to give the Russians time to prepare whatever the next defensive line will be?

I expect Wagner to be rotated and get at least some rest (and the opportunity to spend earned money). Mercenaries were hired to capture the city and they did it. In their mind, their job is done. And I doubt that they are interested in a "sit in a half-destroyed city and die from artillery strikes" kind of contract.

People wrongly assume that Wagner is something like a paramilitary organization under the unified military command or even just a part of the Russian Armed Forces. No, they are not, they are merely cooperating with the Russian High Command, don't take orders from them.

[EuchreJack]

They can't leave if they're abandoned.

[jipehog]

We are close to strategically encircling Bakhmut – Commander of Ukrainian Ground Forces

hmm.. Amazing if true, but I have strong doubts.

Trains and trucks can stop. That means men and materiel can now move into Bakhmut, and all the fronts along the rail and roads coming out are now supplied by rail and road. Which tends to make those fronts move forward.

True if they can utilize the rail network to Bakhmut, which I am not sure that they can atm. Their game plan was crippled by losses in the east, since then it felt like Russia just moving through inertia relying on brute force. From my reading of the map, the rail line to Bakhmut is essentially the frontline, easily observed and for tens of km is in range of not just HIMARs but even simple mortars..

Do we have any evidence that this line is used? for anything train to rail carts. (except as path to follow for retreaing Russian soldiers)

So speaking of troops sitting on routes, do you think them letting Wagner sit on Bakhmut while the Russian army retreats is to give the Russians time to prepare whatever the next defensive line will be?

Russia already have the cement cone" line they started their advance in the winter. Though I suspect that there is no shortage of trenches in between after almost a year of crawling advances

I expect Wagner to be rotated and get at least some rest (and the opportunity to spend earned money). Mercenaries were hired to capture the city and they did it.

I think that Prigozin had an idea that quick victory would be a political ladder for him. Do you think that Moscow will let him pullout and regroup after all his ranting against the MoD and even grandpa ?

[King Zultan]

I wonder if is the beginning of the end for wanker Wagner?

[Strongpoint]

I wish the Belgorod People's Republic luck in resisting the evil Moscow regime. Destroying Moscow's border checkpoint using tanks and artillery is a bold first move!

__________

The Legion “Freedom of Russia” and the “Russian Volunteer Corps” are conducting an operation on the territory of the Belgorod oblast to create a “security strip” to protect Ukrainian civilians, Andrii Yusov, spokesman for the Main Intelligence Directorate, said. According to Yusov, only Russian citizens are taking part in the operation


Khe-khe-khe

[Jerick]

Here's the thing just by being there they're doing tremendous damage to the Russian war effort. The Russian government cannot politically afford armed anti-government militias taking and holding territory. There are other anti-government groups that have been arming themselves this last while and if they see this invasion do well they'll be emboldened. For that and many other reasons, the Russian government can't allow this to have any appearance of success. If they get bogged down they lose. If they ignore it they lose. They're going to have to hit that incursion with overwhelming force and to do that they'll need to pull that force from somewhere. We all know Ukraine has been performing shaping operations and getting all their ducks in a row for a major offensive. This could pull a whole bunch of Russians away from the front.

I don't think this incursion is going to be too successful. I do however think it'll be the prelude to something beautiful.

[EuchreJack]

They can also use NATO equipment to hit supplies and logistics in a way that Ukraine publicly can't. Nobody can blame Russians for invading Russia!

[Strongpoint]

Here's the thing just by being there they're doing tremendous damage to the Russian war effort. The Russian government cannot politically afford armed anti-government militias taking and holding territory. There are other anti-government groups that have been arming themselves this last while and if they see this invasion do well they'll be emboldened. For that and many other reasons, the Russian government can't allow this to have any appearance of success. If they get bogged down they lose. If they ignore it they lose. They're going to have to hit that incursion with overwhelming force and to do that they'll need to pull that force from somewhere. We all know Ukraine has been performing shaping operations and getting all their ducks in a row for a major offensive. This could pull a whole bunch of Russians away from the front.

I don't think this incursion is going to be too successful. I do however think it'll be the prelude to something beautiful.

I agree. I don't think that it is a serious attempt to hold territory and is more like a raid that will force Russians to transfer some troops needed elsewhere. I expect As soon as those will arrive, the "Freedom of Russia" legion will fall back.

As a nice bonus, some of the artillery that shelled the Ukrainian side from "safety" will be destroyed or captured

[KittyTac]

BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD

[Strongpoint]

I suggest nuking Belgorod to show those separatists from BNP their place!

[jipehog]

F16 are officially on the table and would be provided by Netherlands. Interestingly, Netherlands lost close to 200 citizens in the MH17 flight that was shot down by Russian forces.

Btw didn't Ukraine already started pilot training in the west over a month ago?

[hector13]

Not for F-16s, Biden only said they can be given to Ukraine a few days ago, though I don’t know how (dis)similar F-16s would be to other jets their allies are providing.

[Strongpoint]

I wonder if there will be volunteer F-16 pilots\ground crews. Those would help a lot. Especially ground crews.

[martinuzz]

According to the region's governor, most of the population of Belgorod has fled the region after the attacks on the border post.

Haha, hilarious! Yes, go partisans! Bring the war home!

At the same time, if true, the people of Russia must really be made afraid by their propaganda of being invaded by nazi demons, that just a small attack on a border post sends them fleeing the region.