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[Egan_BW]

Rood. Just targetting the new players who don't know any better and Max, who does deserve it.

[Maximum Spin]

are you seriously scumreading me because I got to the thread later than nqt

[ToonyMan]

are you seriously scumreading me because I got to the thread later than nqt

That does seem unfair.

Okay, you're the least suspicious of the three. But still not a good nominee.

[Maximum Spin]

But still not a good nominee.

Why not? Why is notquitethere a better one?

[ToonyMan]

He made me laugh. The rest made me sleepy.

[Maximum Spin]

Just targetting the new players who don't know any better

That might apply to you, but the new guy is supposed to be a veteran player and ought to know better.

[webadict]

But still not a good nominee.

Why not? Why is notquitethere a better one?

I dunno. He just seemed like he'd be good on the bench, and nobody else seemed good. You seem too eager for it.

[reina]

Sorry everyone, guess I forgot that editing is frowned upon. Makes sense tho, i just reflexively fixed a typo.

I was curious to see what our nomination choices might look like if we considered just the probabilities:

Code: [Select]

|     |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |
| --- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- |
| D1  |            Town           |            Scum           |
|     |            7/10           |            3/10           |
|     |                           |             |             |
| D2  |    Town     |    Scum     |    Town     |    Scum     |
|     |     6/9     |     3/9     |     7/9     |     2/9     |
|     |             |             |             |             |
| D3  | Town | Scum | Town | Scum | Town | Scum | Town | Scum |
|     | 5/8  | 3/8  | 6/8  | 2/8  | 6/8  | 2/8  | 7/8  | 1/8  |

Those are the chances we nominate a given faction for each day.

Chance to vote scum day 1: 30%
Chance to vote scum day 2: 27%
Chance to vote scum day 3: 25%

Not sure if that's useful in any way. If we left it purely up to chance then our day 1 nominee is the most likely to be town.

[webadict]

The chance to vote scum seems like 0 if you vote NQT, so I think you're math is off.

[Jim Groovester]

Oh, I can make it even better. We're not voting any one of the three of you! Ever! Thank me later.

But we need one member of the Onyx Cabal in the final election if we're going to elect an Emperor, otherwise we get the Jade Council ending which is lame.

He made me laugh. The rest made me sleepy.

This honestly. Fun banter is a town tell for this game I'd say.

But now that I've said this it no longer is.

The cool kids' club is no longer accepting applications.

[reina]

Sorry everyone, guess I forgot that editing is frowned upon. Makes sense tho, i just reflexively fixed a typo.

I was curious to see what our nomination choices might look like if we considered just the probabilities:

Code: [Select]

|     |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |
| --- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- |
| D1  |            Town           |            Scum           |
|     |            7/10           |            3/10           |
|     |                           |             |             |
| D2  |    Town     |    Scum     |    Town     |    Scum     |
|     |     6/9     |     3/9     |     7/9     |     2/9     |
|     |             |             |             |             |
| D3  | Town | Scum | Town | Scum | Town | Scum | Town | Scum |
|     | 5/8  | 3/8  | 6/8  | 2/8  | 6/8  | 2/8  | 7/8  | 1/8  |

Those are the chances we nominate a given faction for each day.

Chance to vote scum day 1: 30%
Chance to vote scum day 2: 27%
Chance to vote scum day 3: 25%

Not sure if that's useful in any way. If we left it purely up to chance then our day 1 nominee is the most likely to be town.

Along these same lines our probability of nominating all 3 Cabal members and triggering the early defeat is ~0.8%

[reina]

Chance to vote scum day 1: 30%
Chance to vote scum day 2: 27%
Chance to vote scum day 3: 25%

Not sure if that's useful in any way. If we left it purely up to chance then our day 1 nominee is the most likely to be town.

Wow, just realized I brain farted and got the last sentence backwards. We actually have the highest chance of a town nominee on day 3 not 1.

[Maximum Spin]

The cool kids' club is no longer accepting applications.

Your mom is still accepting applications.

[Jim Groovester]

The cool kids' club is no longer accepting applications.

Your mom is still accepting applications.

how dare u

[EuchreJack]

Alright, first thing we should do is determine Jack's alignment since he's the easiest to read. If he's town, we just win. If he's mafia, well that's one mafia member down.

This is a great plan, and I will eventually be seeking a nomination.  It also sounds like something town!Roden would say.

I have an Influence Ability that I can activate on the Third Day, so I'll probably be going for a nomination on the Second Day.

But first...
Nominate Jim Groovester
Why? Well, if Jim is town, then Jim will have great insights...and probably will bungle the vote.  So, let's get him out of the way.  The Nomination process will hopefully put enough spotlight on Jim to ascertain whether or not Jim is town.

I do NOT think knowingly nominating Onyx players is a good idea. However town potentially bears the most risk with exactly 1 Onyx player, as that means 2 Onyx players and 5 Jade players will be voting.  I probably should not be giving the Onyx team any advice, but they have a private chat to figure this out.  We as town need to get out information and strategy.

NQT is a terrible candidate because I think this whole "running as a candidate" is a way to "hide in plain sight".  NQT doesn't have to scumhunt as they can instead post about what a great candidate they would be.  Fluffy posts with no substance.

@Max: Is Knightwing town or scum?

@reina: I'm scumreading you, because your statistics are a way to post without scumhunting.  Thankfully, you can't get lynched in this game, but watch it!

Web & Toony: I'm not sure about, but they can coerce people's votes regardless of their ability to vote, so I don't care if they are nominated at this time.

@Egan_BW: Please vote Jim! Or tell me why not...

Since you all want humor, have a classic EJ comment:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Everyone is scum! They're all out to get me!