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[heydude6]

If we're going to talk about peaceful vs violent protest, I should probably remind you guys that we Ukrainians violently ousted a Russian puppet from presidential power in 2014 and we turned out relatively fine in spite of Russia's annexation of Crimea.

Sometimes, effective social change really is as simple as removing one bad actor.

EDIT: If it helps Hector, I don't think you're arguing in bad faith. I thought the article you linked about non-violent protest to be very good.

[hector13]

In what way am I arguing in bad faith? Because I refuse to accept your position? I’ve been saying violence will either result in a prolonged civil war in which there are so many competing factions that nothing gets done, or will just result in the autocrat being replaced by the same or worse.

What’s the point in taking action if it will result in either no change or something worse than what you have now? It’s akin to breaking a finger and treating it by cutting off your hand.

[Strongpoint]

If we're going to talk about peaceful vs violent protest, I should probably remind you guys that we Ukrainians violently ousted a Russian puppet from presidential power in 2014 and we turned out relatively fine in spite of Russia's annexation of Crimea.

Sometimes, effective social change really is as simple as removing one bad actor.

Well... not a perfect example. Maydan 2014 always was about people responding to violence symmetrically. Protesters never were ones to raise the level of violence. And in the end, we used constitutional means to kick Yanukovich out. I am sure Putin hoped for anarchy in Kyiv, never happened.

[heydude6]

And in the end, we used constitutional means to kick Yanukovich out.

There's a provision in the Ukrainian Constitution that allows you to oust a leader by storming parliament?

[MorleyDev]

I think there's a definition problem going on.

From what I recall/regoogled, the 2014 ousting of the Ukrainian President was more from what could be called 'mass acts of civil disobedience' rather than a 'violent revolution'.

Hector13 seems to be referring to needing to avoid organization armed insurrection under a figurehead leader/group or series of them, since that tends to lead to either said figurehead leader/group simply becoming "meet the new boss, same as the old", or dragged out martial conflict between multiple vying groups.

Mass civil disobedience instead forces those in positions of power other than the immediate direct leadership to reevaluate priorities and either come out of from the background and more openly push for reform, or to switch positions and align themselves with reform for fear for their positions/livelihoods/lives. This brings about change in the system whilst leaving wider societal structure intact and allows for the emergence of leaders under more constrained and safeguarded circumstances, rather than the assertion of leadership by individuals backed up by force.

[Strongpoint]

And in the end, we used constitutional means to kick Yanukovich out.

There's a provision in the Ukrainian Constitution that allows you to oust a leader by storming parliament?

It wasn't the cleanest procedure but all was done through actual, legit, votes of an elected internationally recognized parliament. Yes, strictly speaking, procedures of removing Yanukovitch from power weren't followed but when 328 MPs of 450 vote for something it has weight in a democratic country.

And what storming of the parliament you are talking about? Parliament was allowed to work, there were no protestors inside during voting. Sure they were under the pressure but it is how it should be because, as the constitution says - The people are the bearers of sovereignty and the only source of power in Ukraine.

[Strongpoint]

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1565037514888560641

I don't know who is behind the official Twitter account of the Ukrainian ministry of defense but I love him (or her)

[Lord Shonus]

Yeah, France had a democracy for a very short period before it was usurped. I think a lot of people see the US and think it's often like that, but the US's formation was an exception to the rule, and if Washington hadn't been who he was it's possible that the US would have turned into another monarchy pretty promptly too.

While Washington gets lionized as The Man Who Would Not Be King, the way British colonies were set up in those days had more to do with it. Unlike Spain or France, which used a system of imperial viceroys and governors laying down the law from the mother country as holy writ, Britain's colonies were largely self governing. All of the thirteen colonies had some form of parliament that handled pretty much all local affairs, and the people were accustomed to having their voices heard. Indeed, their initial response to a lot of the British acts that offended them was to simply petition Parliament for redress of grievances, and if Pitt the Elder had been able to secure a stronger position that would probably have worked. Fundamentally, for most of the colonies little changed in the Revolution other than swapping London for Philadelphia.

[EuchreJack]

This thread isn't fun anymore, I'm considering locking it ...

[heydude6]

People are getting a tad emotional, I agree. Perhaps lock it for a couple of days to give people time to calm down.

Don't recommend locking it for very long though. The counteroffensive has just begun and people are going to want to talk about it.

[Random_Dragon]

We do still have the other thread that's supposed to be the "actual news on how the war's going" thread, I wouldn't mind if more actual info on how things are going got posted there to be honest.

[EuchreJack]

Since I lost the ability to unlock treads, just pretend this thread is locked for 48 hours, Starting NOW

[Great Order]

Could ask Toady?

[MaxTheFox]

-snip-

Whatever, this clown is clearly ignoring our points. I'm done. Go sing Imagine with your fellow doves.

[hector13]

I’m not discounting the potential positives in armed conflict. I provided evidence that the most likely outcome is the repression will be worse than it was before, and that’s even assuming your side wins. I’ve also provided an example of an extended civil war that started from armed resistance in the comparatively tiny country of Syria, that’s still ongoing, and the regime there is using horrible weapons on the civilian populace there.

You’ve claimed before that Putin will order peaceful protesters. What do you think he’ll do to them if they shoot back? He’s claimed Ukraine is Russia, and the soldiers there are raping and murdering civilians, they’re raping, torturing, and murdering POWs. He’s using illegal weapons against civilians. He has used nerve agents and nuclear agents in enemies of the state like Skripal, Litvinenko, and Navalny.

PPE: you’re too late I saw the post. I’m not the only one not listening. You say I’m discounting the positives, you’re not even thinking about the negatives, the possibilities listed above, and probably more, and worse. Putin’s has nukes ffs. Do you think he would never use them against his own people? I mean, for there too be change, you have to win. I don’t think you know what that even means.

You say you’re willing to take the risk. Are you willing to put at risk every person you’ve ever known? Because that’s what armed resistance against a regime that has been entrenched for two decades plus will do. Every single person in Russia that has an iota of wealth, power, and influence has it thanks to Putin. You don’t get rid of that overnight. Quite frankly I don’t think you ever get rid of that unless you excise them all, and I don’t think complete anarchy from having local, regional, and national government, the entire military command, and the leadership of all law enforcement and security completely destroyed is better than what you have now.

I mean, you’ve been posting openly for at least the last few months about wanting to murder Putin and his cronies. Are you taking precautions? VPNs? Tor? If not, are you at all worried about being disappeared in the night?

Anyway, good luck with the resistance. You’ll need that and a lot more.