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[EuchreJack]

You got some links on the Snake Island stuff?

[Strongpoint]

This Wikipedia article has a list recent Ukrainian counterattacks with links.

[martinuzz]

Cheers, thanks for the link brewer bob.

martinuzz, I tried yours but the Times doesn't want me reading without signing up, sorry.

Firefox + NoScript

Heh, I never realized it was paywalled without that

[Cthulhu]

Russian bridging attempt fails with ludicrous casualties

How the fuck do you lose 32 armored vehicles in one fight in 2022 as one of the supposedly top militaries in the world?  That's basically an entire BTG rendered combat-ineffective.  Not even counting human losses which I have no idea, 150? 200?  More?

[martinuzz]

Finland will apply for NATO membership, the Finnish president and the Finnish prime minister just stated. They hope their official application will be ready within the next few days.
Sweden will likely follow.

[brewer bob]

Finland will apply for NATO membership, the Finnish president and the Finnish prime minister just stated.

This was expected. The last survey showed that around 75% of Finnish people wanted to join NATO, which is a huge increase from what support was before the war.

Also it was expected that Russia will threaten to take 'retaliatory measures':

Russia will be ‘forced to take military retaliatory steps’ in response to Finland's Nato bid

Russia will be forced to respond to Finland’s decision to join the Nato alliance, its foreign ministry said in a statement.

The ministry’s statement said:

“Finland joining Nato is a radical change in the country’s foreign policy.

Russia will be forced to take retaliatory steps, both of a military-technical and other nature, in order to stop threats to its national security arising.”

[Starver]

The UK (and possibly others[1]) has already agreed mutual-support for the grey-area between "having applied" and "gaining full NATO status". (As I read it, it could mean that Finland might have to help if Russia first invades the UK, or similar. Not sure that's something we could see tested, though.)

Boris says it's not just for the transition period, but effectively NATO membership would trump any UK promises, turning the close cooperation/training long since practiced into "they attack you, they attacked us, we all attack them".


(And, with Boris Johnson (flapping about, his government threatening to back out of the latest EU/NI border-trade-fix-thing) I'm not sure it's actually cast iron and not purely homegrown face[2]-saving PR thing to prop up his personal banner. Let us hope that it's taken bother seriously and literally by Putin, so that WW1-level cascading treaty-forced involvements don't engulf NATO anyway. This is drifting away from the subject at hand, though.)


[1] Not sure how similar the US's promises are, but probably more significant if as solid.

[2] And/or arse.

[Starver]

(Double-post, 'new' thing.)

A case of particularly clear war-crimes caught on cameras and well documented.  The chances are low that the individuals will be directly held to account, I imagine, but a much higher chance of positive identification and a lower degree of plausible deniability (that may get them in trouble back home for being so blatant).

[martinuzz]

Well, it looks like Finland and Sweden can forget NATO membership.
Erdogan stated he is against it. New members need to be approved by all members.
According to Erdogan, Sweden and Finland harbor PKK terrorists.
He adds that "previous Turkish leaders have made the mistake of allowing Greece into NATO, I will not make a second mistake".

More piss on Atatürk's grave.

[heydude6]

So strange. My first thought was “Russian plant!”, but apparently this guy is connected to Turkey who has been one of Ukraine’s most important allies thanks to their Bayraktar drones.

What the hell even is a PKK terrorist? Why is that more important than letting Finland become Russia’s next target? It’s not like there isn’t a precedent for Russia attacking Finland.

[martinuzz]

So strange. My first thought was “Russian plant!”, but apparently this guy is connected to Turkey who has been one of Ukraine’s most important allies thanks to their Bayraktar drones.

He is the president of Turkey.
Their drones were of great help. Yet, Erdogan has a history of pissing off NATO allies, like when he decided to buy the Russian S400 anti air system instead of NATO Patriots.

What the hell even is a PKK terrorist? Why is that more important than letting Finland become Russia’s next target? It’s not like there isn’t a precedent for Russia attacking Finland.

The PKK is the Kurdish labour party, which has been declared a terrorist organisation by Erdogan, and EU and US have also listed them as such.
However, Erdogan is easily inclined to label anyone who he does not like as a 'member of PKK', even if they have jack shit to do with it.
For example, journalist reporting about corruption, or artists criticizing Erdogan in their works.
It is highly unlikely that Sweden and Finland harbor actual PKK terrorists of whom it can be proven they are a member (since they agreed on PKK being a terrorist organisation).
Perhaps they have some in their jails. That is possible, because most European countries do not extradite people to countries where they have a chance of being tortured, or to countries which have death penalty.

Erdogan is the most horrible and incompetent (his economic policies have now got Turkey to 70% inflation) asshole president Turkey has had in a long time, and he has been pissing on Atatürk's vision of a modern, secular Turkey ever since he got into power.

Erdogan doesn't care one bit if Russia would annex Finland and Sweden, as long as he can imprison people who compare him to a cow.

EDIT: Him helping Ukraine with drones is not because he doesn't like Putin or minds other autocrats invading other nations. It's because Ukraine is one of Turkey's largest trade partners. So is Russia. During the first month of the war, Erdogan proposed that he would intiate peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, because of his friendly relations with both.

[martinuzz]

Update.
Apparently, Erdogan has only said that he considered vetoing the membership of Finland and Sweden.
Analysts believe that he wants to use it as leverage to force Sweden and other EU countries to restrict freedom of speech and demonstration for the many supporters of KCK, an overarching political organisation under which PKK also falls.
KCK is also regarded as terrorist by Erdogan, but not by the EU.
In the 1990s and beyond, millions of Turks fled their country's brutal military oppression of Kurdish militants and applied for political asylum. 85000 of them live in Sweden.

[Strongpoint]

So strange. My first thought was “Russian plant!”, but apparently this guy is connected to Turkey who has been one of Ukraine’s most important allies thanks to their Bayraktar drones.

What the hell even is a PKK terrorist? Why is that more important than letting Finland become Russia’s next target? It’s not like there isn’t a precedent for Russia attacking Finland.

Turkey is not a Ukrainian ally. Turkey makes money and benefits from the situation. Erdogan always plays his own game.

Now, being one of the strongest countries of NATO (My personal opinion that Turkish armed forces are second only to the USA but it is debatable) they will try to negotiate something useful for their aye vote on Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO
__________


In other news - Macron offered Ukraine to give up sovereignty so that Putin would save face — President Zelensky 

[brewer bob]

If "harboring PKK terrorists" means that we've taken in Kurd refugees and allow them to hold demonstrations against Erdogan's regime and Turkey's oppression of Kurds, carrying placards with pictures of Öcalan and PKK flags, then yes, I guess we're guilty of that.

[scriver]

We've almost certainly harbouring terrorists that've gone into exile among them, there's no need to pretend we're not. But anyone actually relevant would be old and gray by now.

Historically Sweden has not been opposed to harbouring political activists as long as they keep orderly here. That might have changed since 9/11 for all I know though, and any PKK people would be from the 70's or 80's probably.