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[EuchreJack]

Yes, everyone clearly knows plague follows war, not the other way around 

[da_nang]

I wonder when we can expect a Ukrainian counteroffensive. You can't just sit in the cities and be shelled to rubble day after day.

Now, Ukrainian OPSEC obviously prevents us from hearing much about the army.

But that southern front... I'm worried about it.

[Il Palazzo]

What counteroffensive? These are not equal opponents. No matter how many heart warming tales of the plucky underdog and the bumbling giant we may tell each other, in terms of pure military might the conclusion is pretty much foregone. Without actual boots-on-the-ground military aid the best they can hope for is that the resistance and the sanctions and the ramping up political fallout will make the invasion too costly to continue.

[Vector]

Trans people unable to leave Ukraine for the usual documentation reasons

Also, allegedly there is a plan to purge (=torture, kill) GLBT Ukranians in the event of a successful annexation.

[Muz]

I don't know if this was posted yet, but it's a very good summary on the situation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE

tldv:

• Russia/Moscow isn't defensible without more buffers to the west.
• Russia is highly dependent on oil sales, and EU is dependent on Russia for it. Ukraine has discovered plenty of oil natural gas deposits in Crimea, allowing it to become the region's second petrostate, which also gives them negotiation grounds into NATO.
• Russia's manpower is going down gradually. Not mentioned is that Ukraine's manpower is increasing rapidly.
• Ukraine is soft-sieging Crimea via water supply, and has stated their goal is to take Crimea back.
• Ukraine is too poor to exploit their oil reserves and relies on foreign investment. Violence will reduce appetite for foreign investment.

Basically, Russia fears becoming Ukraine's bitch in the future.

[The_Explorer]

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/ukraine-russia-conflict-live-updates/news-story/66a590bb28fbca02e9e46db2edc962b3

China’s bombshell Russia move

A shocking Western intelligence report has revealed that China allegedly asked Russia not to invade Ukraine until after the Beijing Winter Olympics had concluded.

According to the New York Times, the report proves Beijing has prior knowledge of the invasion, which began on February 24 - just four days after the Olympic closing ceremony.

In fact, Vladimir Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping of China in Beijing on February 4 ahead of the opening ceremony, raising eyebrows at the time.

It comes as China abstained from a UN vote condemning Russia’s invasion.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/us/politics/russia-ukraine-china.html

So...china knew all along. Figured as much tbh.

As an update. Its definitely confirmed.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/02/world/china-russia-ukraine-invasion-olympics-western-intel/index.html

China knew all about it and said (quote in the article, quote was when they had met during the olympics) "their partnership has no limits" and China condemned NATO expansion.

I wonder how much China is planning their own moves then.

[Random_Dragon]

Basically, Russia fears becoming Ukraine's bitch in the future.

I get the feeling they wouldn't have gone off half-cocked if they actually thought Ukraine was much of a threat, so I'd take this claim with a grain of salt.

[heydude6]

It's a good video, I saw it earlier. It really showcases how Russia basically is dying as a country, but the pedant in me has to correct your typo. The video states that Ukraine has a lot of newly discovered natural gas reserves, not oil. The war for oil logic still applies though.

My only complaint is that the guy adopts an aggressively neutral tone that almost seems to excuse Putin's actions. I don't care how much Russia "needs" these things, they have no right to subjugate an independent country to do so. What Russia needs the most is a government whose sole purpose isn't to siphon public funds to oligarch's. That will do the country way more good than a successful conquest.

EDIT:

I have officially changed my stance on this video. After thinking about it for a while, I realized that this is just an outsider reaching to come up with rational explanations for what is at it's core, an insane series of actions. The video's only merits are as a summary of Russia's economy and issues and of some of the recent conflicts between Ukraine and Russia, but for the latter, it is only touching the surface of it to the point of being misleading. You cannot talk about Russia vs Ukraine without mentioning the fact that the ousted president Yanukovich was a corrupt piece of crap (for even Ukrainian standards) who did not deserve his seat in the government. For fucks sakes, one of the first things he did when he gained power was to illegally jail the runner-up candidate who had loyally served as Ukraine's prime minister and was beloved by the people. Doesn't that sound like someone you know?

Just more proof that not everyone with a polished presentation is necessarily right.

ENDEDIT


Ninjaed:

Basically, Russia fears becoming Ukraine's bitch in the future.

I get the feeling they wouldn't have gone off half-cocked if they actually thought Ukraine was much of a threat, so I'd take this claim with a grain of salt.

Ukraine was seen as an economic threat to them, not a military threat. That's why they tried to solve this economic problem with an army.

[Random_Dragon]

And now it seems there's more economic threat to be had in the consequences of committing to an invasion, plus the potential for driving more countries to NATO and basically ensuring that if Ukraine survives this they'll likely get pushed firmly into the EU and NATO camps for good. Smart. :v

[Frumple]

• Ukraine is soft-sieging Crimea via water supply

For what it's worth, my understanding is that this isn't actually true; Crimea has a fully sufficient amount of local water for its population, it'd be largely impossible to "siege" it by cutting off the water Ukraine used to supply to it as part of, well, Ukraine. The folks in Crimea weren't and aren't going to run out of water without aggressive mismanagement getting involved.

What happened is that Ukraine didn't continue to supply all the water Crimea needed for its agriculture exports without, y'know, being sufficiently paid given everything involved with an annexed portion of its country wanting Ukraine to continue to maintain a hostile region's civil infrastructure. Which made a sufficient amount of water to cover that suddenly... expensive. Not missing, because the area still produced a massive pile of stuff to ship out (if at the expense of its water table, but again, see mismanagement), but expensive. Something likely could have been negotiated on that front, but, well. Probably a little late at this point.

Video might have addressed that more fully, but just to make that more clear for the folks that don't want to watch a video, heh.

[heydude6]

And now it seems there's more economic threat to be had in the consequences of committing to an invasion, plus the potential for driving more countries to NATO and basically ensuring that if Ukraine survives this they'll likely get pushed firmly into the EU and NATO camps for good. Smart. :v

You gotta understand that Putin literally did this exact same thing in Georgia without any hitches. Sponsored some breakaway states and then commenced a full invasion. No one gave a shit back then.

It's kind of amazing that Putin failed to pull it off a second time. My people have been fighting hard, but their success is more on Russia's incompetence than it is on our troop's heroism. As horrible as it is to say, we have been incredibly lucky.

• Ukraine is soft-sieging Crimea via water supply

Video might have addressed that more fully,

Nope, the video didn't. Says the people there are living on water rations. Though I'm not surprised to learn that Russia decided to prioritize agricultural exports over it's people *cough*.

[Frumple]

Yeah, the amount of water Crimea sunk into ag, like, last year (just by weight of its exports) would have fully hydrated its population like... several times over, iirc. It was trillions of litres worth of farm water vs billions needed to fully hydrate everyone for the year (and that easily fulfillable with what they have access to inside their borders, nevermind getting imports from non-Ukraine sources), something along those lines. If they're on personal water rations, it's because someone's prioritizing the exports over the local civil usage, not because the country lacks the water to give people a drink.

[Flying Dice]

One also has to wonder about the capability of the Russians to treat their wounded.  Did they properly plan for wounded?

There were reports, prior to the invasion, of military hospitals being erected near the borders, where the 'just exercises' were taking place.

That explains the high casualty rates, if those military hospitals were not moved forward during the conflict.
Time to binge watch MASH to determine competence at 1970s levels.
Relevant

What I've been seeing sporadic reports of is that a lot of Russian infantry are dying because they're staying mounted in their IFVs which has the natural result of drastically increasing how many people die when those IFVs get hit by drones and AT teams. That would seem to mesh with their force composition and lack of coordination -- conscripts scared of disembarking while taking small arms fire who have limited contact with their own commanders and no enthusiasm about fighting are a lot more prone to that sort of behavior than veterans or heavily drilled troops.

That combined with so many vehicles being essentially stationary targets because of supply issues, traffic jams, &c. could go a ways towards explaining high casualty rates. Well, that and how many transports Russia seems to keep sending on suicide runs.

I mean for god's sake he hasn't even achieved air superiority and he's just pushing in waves of half-trained infantry who are dying in droves because they don't have the knowledge or discipline to get out of their IFVs.

Major air superiority is there. What Russia doesn't have is air supremacy. Something USSR\Russia had in every war since WW2. They don't have a clue how to fight when the enemy has their own airforce.

I would be wary of painting the Russians as incompetent here. By all counts they have a vastly superior air force that they simply aren't employing in its full capacity (yet). When your enemy has 15 aircraft/helicopters for each of yours, then you don't really have an air force.

Or their vastly superior airforce exists only on paper and the majority of aircrafts aren't combat-ready.

Given how many of their ground vehicles appear to be poorly maintained Soviet-era retrofits I wouldn't be surprised if the same was true of their air force. They also seem to be taking pretty steady losses. One of the post-action inspections that just went up was of a downed Ka-52, and there's footage of Su-25s in action (rather than any of their modern multirole fighters), so it definitely looks like they're just throwing piles of ordinance from the 80s/90s against a Ukraine armed with modern ATGMs and MANPADs.

I stand by what I said before, they don't have the sort of defense (kek) industry they need to mass-produce modern equipment. They've got fewer than 20 operational current-gen fighters and no combat UAVs. Ukraine only has a relatively modest roster of 80s-era Soviet jets, but they've got probably a few dozen TB2s (which Russia evidently doesn't have the capability to counter outside of their failed attempts to hit potential bases) and plenty of capable anti-air platforms. If they actually get the jets they're asking for from the EU (particularly if things escalate to the point where their western neighbors pull a Rhodesian Bush War move and surreptitiously allow them to base inside their borders) Russia is going to have to start committed their limited numbers of modern aircraft and we all get to find out how good the stealth systems on the Su-57 are.

And yeah, I can't speak for anyone else, but this is 100% incompetence on Putin's part. There are no hidden daggers here, the man's just an egomaniac who doesn't listen to competent advisers. He sent possibly the worst force composition he could into superior numbers of highly motivated defenders with apparently no logistical planning and went all surprised Pikachu face when Ukraine didn't immediately capitulate and let him genocide them.

[wierd]

Sounds like the holodomor all over again...

Ukraine needs soldiers, not gear.

[Lord Shonus]

Given how many of their ground vehicles appear to be poorly maintained Soviet-era retrofits I wouldn't be surprised if the same was true of their air force.

The Soviet-era retrofits are the part of their gear that's working. It is the much-vaunted newer stuff that's falling apart or simply missing.