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Author Topic: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (Game Over): Lessons Of Mob Mentality  (Read 111847 times)

Vector

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R4, Day 3): But Time And Time Again This One Erodes
« Reply #1575 on: November 13, 2021, 09:54:09 pm »

Drat, so I am right.  Vector has been lying all along.

I ... no? I'm town.

Jack, you've realized the only person that could be the Vector poisoner is you yourself, or Vector has to be lying. I get that now.

@WEB: This is why. Anyway, as I'm not lying I guess it's EuchreJack 9_9
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

nonbinary/genderfluid/genderqueer renegade mathematician and mafia subforum limpet. please avoid quoting me.

pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".

EuchreJack

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R4, Day 3): But Time And Time Again This One Erodes
« Reply #1576 on: November 13, 2021, 10:11:37 pm »

Drat, so I am right.  Vector has been lying all along.

I ... no? I'm town.

Jack, you've realized the only person that could be the Vector poisoner is you yourself, or Vector has to be lying. I get that now.

@WEB: This is why. Anyway, as I'm not lying I guess it's EuchreJack 9_9

I appreciate the confirmation, Vector.  I sometimes worry that I've missed something, but now I at least know you are scum.

I also must assume that you are in a position to win as mafia.  Your failure to die EOD, after we vote, will prove you are mafia, and you need 2 mafia to win with 7 total players and 3 nights to prime.

Hm, but would town!Vector be going after me, with their theory of the game?  Under their theory, they've been BOTH primed AND poisoned.  I'm a weak player, so wouldn't they be going after the person they feel is my scumbuddy?  Under their theory, there is time to eliminate the more competent player on the scum team.

Speaking of which, who do you feel is my scumbuddy Vector?  Town!Vector would tell us.

webadict

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R4, Day 3): But Time And Time Again This One Erodes
« Reply #1577 on: November 13, 2021, 10:12:14 pm »

@Jack:
Why not consider Webadict is mafia with Roden or Max? Even though both Roden and Max couldn't have poisoned Vector they could still be mafia with Web if Web is the poisoner.
I've realized this likely isn't possible since Web knew Max's role, so I see what you mean there.

Jack, you've realized the only person that could be the Vector poisoner is you yourself, or Vector has to be lying. I get that now.
I actually don't know Max's role. Just that action. I also have a copy of it.

Not to throw wood onto my own fire, but there is a possible setup where NJW2000 covers for me and I rolecop Max on N1 and see his role enough to know priming exists. But, then someone has to be able to Prime. It would have to be me in that situation, because NJW still knows Jack's action and target (either that or NJW has a different ability in this hypothetical.)

If you believe that, though, then I either couldn't poison, or something else happened, because NJW2000 was poison protected. A 1-shot Poison Doctor implies that someone was definitely poisonable N1, no? But, I would have had no way of knowing Vector was 1-shot, and I also would've been making targets on me and my partner.

If we accept Vector is Town, then we accept that Poison is a potential kill method.
Priming is a scum kill method regardless, as three people confirm it exists. (me, NJW, and Max) In fact, it might be a completely passive ability, unless Roden did it, Jack or I has Multitask, or NJW2000 is lying.

Drat, so I am right.  Vector has been lying all along.

I ... no? I'm town.

Jack, you've realized the only person that could be the Vector poisoner is you yourself, or Vector has to be lying. I get that now.

@WEB: This is why. Anyway, as I'm not lying I guess it's EuchreJack 9_9
I'm not willing to vote Euchre or you until I'm done musing.
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webadict

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R4, Day 3): But Time And Time Again This One Erodes
« Reply #1578 on: November 13, 2021, 10:14:23 pm »

Drat, so I am right.  Vector has been lying all along.

I ... no? I'm town.

Jack, you've realized the only person that could be the Vector poisoner is you yourself, or Vector has to be lying. I get that now.

@WEB: This is why. Anyway, as I'm not lying I guess it's EuchreJack 9_9
Also, if you try to convince me to vote with you, you are mistaken. I would vote you over Jack.
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Vector

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R4, Day 3): But Time And Time Again This One Erodes
« Reply #1579 on: November 13, 2021, 10:18:59 pm »

OK. I am going to die at EOD and I frankly don't give a shit if people vote me out or not, because I'm already dead. In fact, voting for me is effectively voting for No Launch.

I did lie about my role. I'm a 2-shot poison doctor.
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"The question of the usefulness of poetry arises only in periods of its decline, while in periods of its flowering, no one doubts its total uselessness." - Boris Pasternak

nonbinary/genderfluid/genderqueer renegade mathematician and mafia subforum limpet. please avoid quoting me.

pronouns: prefer neutral ones, others are fine. height: 5'3".

EuchreJack

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R4, Day 3): But Time And Time Again This One Erodes
« Reply #1580 on: November 13, 2021, 10:21:06 pm »

Well, this might summary of events D3 might help:
I have night action news but will wait for Wubz to post.

Maximum Spin has Ember Tracking, which does exactly what he says it does.

Webadict is never town in this game, ever.

I explained in my notes, but I can paste them here:

1. Why did Webadict target Vector on N1? During D1 other players made large hints that they were a type of investigator (such as Jack), but Webadict chose to "copy" Vector who had only hinted at the fact they were a doctor. Vector was a prime kill target, not a prime target for Webadict's inspection copy ability. His night-action choice makes no sense, but NJW spotted it so he chose to confirm himself on that.

2. As mafia last round I was the first vote on every mislynch that happened. This is a huge scumtell. Webadict is the same this round.

3. Town!Webadict would never misread both me and Tric like this.

4. Webadict didn't hesitate at all trying to kill me through all of D2 while I was hesitating over the fact we could both be town and team-killing each other. Hence why I unvoted him multiple times and wasn't even voting Web for end of Day 2. This shows an agenda-based play by Web which is a big scumtell. Mafia want to follow a plan they have and will only deviate if it benefits them.

I'm willing to out Roden today as well, but my vote is not leaving Webadict until he's dead.
You are STILL going for me. I wish you were Mafia, I truly do.

Not quite, Jack. Vector is basically confirmed town due to the unclaimed mafia prime unless exactly with NJW, but NJW is very very likely town as well since Web is mafia.

You and Max are a tier lower in the "probably town, but not as convincingly town as Vector/NJW".

And at the bottom are Web and Roden.

And since I'm below Vector in the Towniness assessment of our Confirmed Townie Toonyman, I think that means I have to claim before Vector and NJW.

I inspected NJW, and nobody targeted NJW.

I None'd, and I have been poisoned. I will die post-elimination at EoD.

I haven't fully deciphered this sequence of events, but I think its important.

EuchreJack

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R4, Day 3): But Time And Time Again This One Erodes
« Reply #1581 on: November 13, 2021, 10:22:07 pm »

OK. I am going to die at EOD and I frankly don't give a shit if people vote me out or not, because I'm already dead. In fact, voting for me is effectively voting for No Launch.

I did lie about my role. I'm a 2-shot poison doctor.

If you believe me to be scum, and believe yourself to be dying at end of day, whom other than myself should town be suspecting?

Maximum Spin

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R4, Day 3): But Time And Time Again This One Erodes
« Reply #1582 on: November 13, 2021, 10:45:57 pm »

If we accept Vector is Town, then we accept that Poison is a potential kill method.
Unfortunately, you accept that either poison is a potential kill method or there are totally useless poison-related abilities as a prank regardless, because I also have one.
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webadict

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R4, Day 3): But Time And Time Again This One Erodes
« Reply #1583 on: November 13, 2021, 11:35:31 pm »

OK. I am going to die at EOD and I frankly don't give a shit if people vote me out or not, because I'm already dead. In fact, voting for me is effectively voting for No Launch.

I did lie about my role. I'm a 2-shot poison doctor.
Well, this is believable, at least, since you stated Noning earlier.

If we accept Vector is Town, then we accept that Poison is a potential kill method.
Unfortunately, you accept that either poison is a potential kill method or there are totally useless poison-related abilities as a prank regardless, because I also have one.
Hm... Okay. Then I believe that. And if I believe that, then I also believe Vector is Town. But, the thing is, I also believe EuchreJack is Town. And ToonyMan is Town. And if all those are Town, how do I justify Roden and NJW2000 as scum?

N1
NJW2000 (Voyeur) - Voyeurs Vector, sees Prodigious Study, Investigate, Prime
Vector (Poison Doctor) - Protects NJW2000
webadict (Investigative Student) - Prodigious Study Vector, gains nothing
Maximum Spin (? JOAT) - Ember Tracks EuchreJack, targeted Vector
EuchreJack (Investigator) - Investigates Vector (sees was targeted)
ToonyMan (Vengeful Roleblocker) - None
Roden (Delayer) - Delays ToonyMan

Confirmed Facts:
NJW2000 semi-confirms the actions of webadict and EuchreJack.
webadict and EuchreJack mostly confirm the action of NJW2000.
Maximum Spin confirms the target of EuchreJack.
If the Prime happened, it was done by scum.

Speculations
If EuchreJack is scum, then NJW2000 is scum OR you believe EuchreJack was given a pro-Town and very weak ability as scum.
If I'm scum, then NJW2000 is scum OR you believe I was given a pro-Town and semi-weak ability as scum.
If Vector is scum, then NJW2000 is scum OR you believe scum primed their partner.
If NJW2000 is scum, then there are no limitations on their partner.
If Roden is scum, then there are no limitations on their partner.

N2
ToonyMan Haunts Roden
Maximum Spin Revives ToonyMan
webadict Prodigious Studies Maximum Spin, gains Ember Track.
EuchreJack Investigates NJW2000, sees no one
Vector Nones (Is poisoned)
Roden (assumedly) blocked
NJW2000 ?



... Hm. I think I'm going to do something stupid.

I'm gonna assume Vector AND EuchreJack are both Town. It makes sense for them to both be Town.
I'll slightly lower NJW2000's potential Towniness, but...

I'm gonna do something even stupider.

I'm gonna take the risk and assume Roden is solo scum.
And I'm going to assume that... we, at best, have two solo scum (Either 2 unteamed Mafia, or Mafia and Mafia-Ally.) But, it also possible we have one really powerful scum.

Hmm...

Very confusing.
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Maximum Spin

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R4, Day 3): But Time And Time Again This One Erodes
« Reply #1584 on: November 13, 2021, 11:41:09 pm »

(It's "Arsonist JOAT", because of all the igniting.

Well it's a little more than that, but nothing helpful.)
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ToonyMan

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R4, Day 3): But Time And Time Again This One Erodes
« Reply #1585 on: November 14, 2021, 12:09:48 am »

The main part I don't like about N1 is the prime on Vector. That was clearly scum if NJW isn't lying. And I don't think NJW is lying. Which means Vector is also town.

Removing multi-tasking, Max and Roden are the only two people who could have primed Vector. Max claimed their track on Jack too late so that could be faked. Roden claims a delay on me which could also be faked since I claimed doing no-action before Roden's claim. So for both of these cases their claim isn't confirmable sadly.

In the case of Web/Max, Web knowing Max's role ability for Web/Max isn't surprising there. Max would be the one that primed Vector in this scenario, although I admit it's odd that Web would also target Vector alongside Max.

And for the case of Web/Roden that means Roden primed Vector while Web again also targeted Vector. They've explained why they targeted Vector, but I still disagree with them on that.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R4, Day 3): But Time And Time Again This One Erodes
« Reply #1586 on: November 14, 2021, 12:14:51 am »

I'm gonna take the risk and assume Roden is solo scum.
And I'm going to assume that... we, at best, have two solo scum (Either 2 unteamed Mafia, or Mafia and Mafia-Ally.) But, it also possible we have one really powerful scum.
How? I blocked Roden last night and Vector claims to be poisoned. You also seemed ASSURED of poison's existence on D2 when there was no evidence of it. If Vector's claim is the truth then it's like you knew, impressive!
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ToonyMan

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R4, Day 3): But Time And Time Again This One Erodes
« Reply #1587 on: November 14, 2021, 12:26:56 am »

Web/Max is nuts though because that means Web was like "hey Max revive the guy who wants me dead", definitely ruling that out.

I really don't see this setup as one mafia or one mafia plus one ally. I really think it's two mafia. Mafia haven't even killed a player yet, although Vector should drop dead at the end of day regardless. I still think Vector and Max are town.
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Maximum Spin

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R4, Day 3): But Time And Time Again This One Erodes
« Reply #1588 on: November 14, 2021, 12:33:28 am »

How? I blocked Roden last night and Vector claims to be poisoned. You also seemed ASSURED of poison's existence on D2 when there was no evidence of it. If Vector's claim is the truth then it's like you knew, impressive!
Well, both Vector and I agreed poison existed D1. That isn't a reason to be "ASSURED", but it's definitely "evidence".
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Maximum Spin

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 3 (R4, Day 3): But Time And Time Again This One Erodes
« Reply #1589 on: November 14, 2021, 12:39:04 am »

Anyway, if you think Vector and NJW are honest town then that pretty much concludes that Jack is scum, right? You could invent scenarios where web gets to use that power on two people n1 and learns my ability then and only admits it now to cover for poisoning, but that seems like a hell of an Occam's Razor scenario compared to Jack being the poisoner.

Okay, fine, multitasking is possible if and only if it's web (or me, but you cannot reasonably think I would have rezzed you as mafia, it just wouldn't be the right choice). I mean, Jack could also be multitasking, but since he is unconfirmed anyway and doesn't NEED to be, I'm not counting that.
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