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[Jim Groovester]

I suspect both but more for FallacyofUrist's interactions with Luckyowl than anything Luckyowl has done. Lynching FallacyofUrist more directly confirms my suspicions than lynching Luckyowl would.

Luckyowl lurking the entirety of Day 1 wouldn't be horribly out of character for him. Letting lurkers off the hook is bad, so I don't mind his lynch.

[notquitethere]

Preliminary D1 Vote Analysis

OK a lot of stuff has been said, but how are people voting? I've tallied up all the non-RVS votes so far. Here's what I've got. If you look at the lessons from previous games, like the recent Supernatural, among the players that have the least post and unique targets, you will find scum (esp. malicious 3rd parties) BUT this obviously isn't 100%. Players can be active and stay out of the pool and town can be lazy and slip into the pool. Still, on average, scum will cluster here. So what do we got? Well not a lot. Most players are being remarkably tunnely today:

Spoiler: Unique Cases (click to show/hide)

Caz   3
notquitethere   3
4maskwolf   2
BluarianKnight   2
FallacyofUrist   2
Reverie   2
TricMagic   2
Jim Groovester   1
Luckyowl   1
Secretdorf   1
Toaster   1
ToonyMan   1
Vector   1

Toony is 99% town, so that leaves Lucky (useless), Secret (scatty), Toaster (aggro), Jim (even more aggro), Vector (mostly absent).

Most Suspected Player
LuckyOwl - 8 people have voted Lucky. This is 5 more than anyone else in the game. If everyone had voted at the same time it'd be hammer.

Least Suspected
As you might recall, in Supernatural, the Devil Jim was the least suspected player on D1. Kept a low profile and harvested the rewards. Here are the players no one is voting. Obviously most are probably town, but still:

Reverie  *Vector had a RVS vote on her, and there have been some suspicions cast but no serious votes
Toony
Vector
Blu
Tric

If we look at the overlap between the two groups, we get Vector as the player keeping their head down lowest. In fact, when I was going back over this, I still didn't see any follow up to my rebuttals or questions in our last interaction despite them posting since. Pretty typical tactic to just ignore what you don't want to deal with.

Like, take this whole post, but this bit in particular:

Vector must have figured I didn't care about the answers because they complained about the questions and then didn't answer the one I asked them, despite it being the most game relevant question I asked anyone.

Vector you ignoring me on purpose, or...?

[4maskwolf]

Wolf team is Caz/NQT/Fallacy.

FallacyOfUrist, since NQT won't fly today.

[TricMagic]

Wolf team is Caz/NQT/Fallacy.

FallacyOfUrist, since NQT won't fly today.

Must you make alarm bells ring in my head?

[Reverie]

NQT, I feel like that your analysis would have served better as an opener to D2 if you were serious about convincing people. With hours to go this timing just doesn't work.

[4maskwolf]

Wolf team is Caz/NQT/Fallacy.

FallacyOfUrist, since NQT won't fly today.

Must you make alarm bells ring in my head?

Yes. It's mandatory.

[notquitethere]

Reverie

NQT, I feel like that your analysis would have served better as an opener to D2 if you were serious about convincing people. With hours to go this timing just doesn't work.

There's still 7 hours, isn't there? This stuff is absolutely more useful after a full day but it's how I make sense of what's going on. How is convincing people after the lynch supposed to help with the lynch? Makes no sense. Posting early and often always better.

Tric, just to be clear, did you ever vote 4mask like the vote count says or is your vote still the vote you placed on Lucky during the RVS stage?

[Secretdorf]

I want to vote fallacy but i won't because I fear scum are trying to save lucky.

[TricMagic]

One thing to note. Secret has his Wand stuff, Vector seems to have used it, Fal has his mansion. And we got someone with a Countdown active. WHY LYNCH FAL?

Reasons Why: Because he claimed to want to daykill Lucky, then did the Mansion instead.
Reasons Why Not? His day ability today is confirmed, so he didn't do the ominous countdown. Likewise if he does have a vig ability he can use it tomorrow, or eat the kill tonight from Mafia. Luckyowl isn't participating, Caz is suspicious, NQT is suspicious. Fal is too, but we know what he did, and can keep an eye out. And if he's town we are likely shooting ourselves in the foot if he's lynched, with something so obvious popping up. Why claim it?

Many reasons not to, 1 to do so. Anyone have others to add to the reasons why we should?

[Secretdorf]

Ok, I am going to bed. Whoever is lynched be mafia.

[TricMagic]

zzzzzzzz

Sleepy. Luckyowl are you awake yet?

This is the last vote I made on Luckyowl. Till now anyway. Quick note, he's still not awake.

[notquitethere]

Either way, Reverie is right about one thing, with eight hours to go, I should follow my own advice and coalesce. Vector won't happening and we're swearing off CFDs so I'll have to pick this up tomorrow.

Back to LuckyOwl. Just dreadful showing.

One thing to note. Secret has his Wand stuff, Vector seems to have used it

I think you meant Toony here?

[TricMagic]

Yep.. I should probably go eat lunch I guess. And wait for the wand to resolve, but at this point it might just be something that is delayed to activate at the end of the day, not when it's cast.(Web doesn't take Delayed Actions from players themselves.)

[4maskwolf]

NQT as town: Lucky is town because everyone is suspecting him and nobody likes him.
NQT as wolf: Imma vote Lucky who everyone suspects and nobody likes the play of.

[4maskwolf]

If you know his meta and some of the behind-the-scenes mech NQT is pretty obviously wolfing.

Caz's play this game has been so out of character for town Caz the conclusion is pretty obvious.

Fallacy is one I'm sheeping off players better than myself.

That's the scumteam, and these are the only acceptable wagons today.