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[notquitethere]

p.s. Dolores, to expand a bit more: my case on Leafsnail was relatively weak. I just thought he was a better fit than Toony, and more over *structurally* it was most likely that Toony was town at the point I tried to intercede as he was the player that was going to be minority lynched if the players didn't act proactively. This had nothing to do with what Toony had said or hadn't said but about the overall pattern of votes.

[IcyTea31]

ICT, more broadly, what often happens is no one questions the shape of the lynch and a minority candidate is lynched without scum having to break a sweat.

"Dead Air, Dead Townie" was mentioned, and that EOD was everything but dead air.

I spotted something interesting about NQT that I'll want to talk to him about.

Did you say what this was?

You spent much of the EOD saying that it's going terribly and you don't like how the wagons are going, but then you said this. Why the change in opinion?

I didn't want it to end like this, but I'm still pleased I made such a fuss. It's been a great end of day! I only hope I can live to do the analysis

I think we should induce a highly suspicious player who doesn't have a confirmable night action to take this badge by the end of the day:

It could limit the mafia's ability to make night kills.

Wouldn't have a massive effect, since there's still a full mafia team out there and they can just have someone else perform the kill. More effective would be to put that badge on everyone even slightly suspicious, though that would be costly.

[4maskwolf]

A few quick thoughts from work. Still PFP.

Luckyowl is about as close to lock-town for me as you can get. I have no reason to believe he’s experienced enough to mimic his town game this closely as scum. He’s exhibiting the same degree of total mechanical candor (sometimes to the point of indiscretion) he did in Paranormal 26 and so far I haven’t seen anything from him that makes me think he’s being coached from behind the scenes. I understand that he’s new and learning and it makes him hard to get a good read on, but as far as I can tell he’s town.

A lot of people, including my mason buddy, are telling me that heydude is definitely town, and for the life of them I can’t figure out why. He’s on the very short list of people (him, NJW, and to a lesser extent Nirur) who flew completely under my notice on D1 and with my current thoughts on the gamestate that’s automatically interesting to me. I put him as “most likely to not be scum” in my PoE out of respect for Icy’s read of the situation but I’m not convinced.

I’m not fully confident that my PoE earlier actually contains the majority of the scumteam but I am convinced that, as things stand right now, I’m not going to lynch outside of it. Doing otherwise would require me to chug some wine I’m not ready to open yet. I’m going to have to eventually, picking any four-man scumteam from among those five leaves me with a scum world I’m not happy with, but I still think everyone in there is >rand scum.

[Leafsnail]

Leafsnail, why didn’t you speak up during that critical moment?

The former, I thought the fact that the question immediately followed the one directed at you would be enough context. Let me do it again for clarity’s sake.

Leafsnail, why didn’t you speak up when me and Iceytea were squabbling over the contracts?

I didn't see any benefit to doing so - why do you think I should've claimed? I might've claimed if I thought one of you was going to be wrongly lynched over the contract timing but that was nowhere near happening.

Keeping the information secret had the clear upside of allowing me to confirm that someone was telling the truth about giving out the contract later. For instance I could've done that for TM if he claimed earlier.

This is what happened right? Was Toony literally just assuming heydude was town because he claimed something which scum!heydude would know was owned and known about by a non-scum player? Am I actually delusional?
He didn't even have insider knowledge about anything but the fact that the contract was real, what the fuck.

No, you just misread him. He was saying that a mafia member would probably not just open palm slam their role PM into the thread without asking their buddies, and that the PM was posted too fast for him to have asked (also I am doubtful that any possible scumteam would've advised doing something that could get you modkilled). He already knew about the timing because he was the contract-sender.

Well that was less than ideal, but still potentially useful. There's a lot to unpack here but first of all, from the top of my head:

- Toony was town, so I'm pleased my instincts about the shape of the lynch were right, even if ultimately I helped my attempts to switch over to Leafsnail weren't successful
[...]
- That ability was a one shot, but it wasn't my only vote related ability as you'll soon see.

notquitethere. Your actions at the end of day one make no sense. You switched between three separate wagons using your vote ability to try to save yourself, and now you have the cheek to try and claim that you were right about the guy you got lynched. We know there is a lylo-breaker in the game and I have no intention of letting you live to be one.

I also strongly suspect some of your buddies switched their votes to save you and I'll be looking into the late ToonyMan votes.

[Vector]

It wasn't the role PM, and it actually wasn't a direct quote (or even paraphrase) of any PM. It was just formatted in such a way that I couldn't tell the difference.

[Leafsnail]

Well, doesn't look like it.

webadict, I'm going to use my Scanner on TricMagic.

Jim Groovester pulls out a Scanner and scans TricMagic, who probably wishes they could talk right now.

webadict: can an action performed publicly at night in this way be affected by private night actions, or does it happen "immediately"?

If it can be affected then I give no weight at all to the inspection result, any number of possible scum roles (eg any redirection/bussing ability) could interfere with it and they knew it was happening.

[dolores]

Oh right, I never asked this though I'd guess the answer is 'yes'
Webadict: is it possible to buy a badge and put it on a player who cannot be the target of any abilities?
ICT: anyone you disagree with being in my towncore? I'm looking for thoughts specifically on NJW, though obviously the others if you also disagree with those.
4mask: if you're not sure why I and ICT think heydude6 is town and you have a spare 2-4 hours, read just this post, then try your hardest to find reasons to call him scum in it. I get that that whole double post and the related responses is exactly the kind of thing when people talk about WoT they skip over, but I went through that spoiler at the bottom line by line and it sure as fuck didn't escape my notice that someone posting like tryhard!newtown wrote a manifesto detailing his thoughts coming out of a very aggressive newtown!gambit and every bit of it seemed like he genuinely believed it. The gambit was heydude's idea, the work he had to do because of the gambit was his own fault, and he did it. What newscum, playing in a game with a dozen players they think are strong, would put themself under that much scrutiny and force themself to have to put out that much activity? We now know where the real contract came from, so what newscum, playing in a game with a dozen players they think are strong, would get day actioned by someone outside of their scumteam and instantly put themself under that much attention, force themself to do that much work while the original contract sender could have called them on lying, then write that much without any of the stronger players picking up that they're being deceptive when examining their reasoning?

Anyway, thoughts on NJW? I still feel like he's hardtown and I'm wondering if you can offer a reason why I shouldn't.

[webadict]

Well, doesn't look like it.

webadict, I'm going to use my Scanner on TricMagic.

Jim Groovester pulls out a Scanner and scans TricMagic, who probably wishes they could talk right now.

webadict: can an action performed publicly at night in this way be affected by private night actions, or does it happen "immediately"?

This was a Night action, so yes, it could still be affected by other abilities during the Night.

Oh right, I never asked this though I'd guess the answer is 'yes'
Webadict: is it possible to buy a badge and put it on a player who cannot be the target of any abilities?

Oh, my mistake if I missed that. The answer is yes, but only when a Badge is bought or created. When buying or creating a Badge, you may choose a player, which is not the same as targeting. However, dolores, you may not trade Badges, as that would be a targeted action.

[TricMagic]

In that regard I can give you a No Bonk badge dolores. I got the pons for it and another.

[Vector]

Oh, also: I'm still waking up, hence why I'm ignoring the more complicated asks, but:

ICT: I targeted myself twice (hat + personal action) and got roleblocked with the flavor text of chasing my bottled water that people kept kicking further down the hallway. If I was more popular than those three actions it's new to me.

[Toaster]

Dolores:

Toaster: can you elaborate on why you think NQT definitely isn't scum?

Sure.  LYLO breakers (mostly vote steals or extra votes) are extremely powerful abilities that can turn a difficult LYLO for Mafia into an easy win.  The best part of them for Mafia is not revealing that they exist.  NQT pops his (limited use or not, relevant either way) on D1 when he was part of a three way tie.   All he had to do to save himself was single vote for Toony, making it 5-4-3 Toony-NQT-Leafsnail.  Popping his ability then was in no way necessary.  I still argue it was a dumb play regardless of his alignment, but it would be a terrible mistake for Mafia NQT.  NQT's no dummy and I suspect he knows this.  I'm not saying this is a guarantee of townhood, but it's an extremely solid clue; enough that I am in no way interested in lynching him any time soon.


TricMagic:

As usual, would be fine with a Vector lynch since as far as I know, a trade action uses up your action for the day. Dolores' post links to a post on them that has my own defeatist post. I would like Leafsnail to give his reasoning for voting me.  And that leaves Toaster as the one who wouldn't change their vote at all. Why so certain?

I provisionally believe Jim's inspect on you.  Not near as much as I believe NQT but I'm willing to back off you for now.  As of end of D1, I still favored your lynch (even over Leafsnail) because


IcyTea:

Vector: you were popular last night. Did you receive any feedback from all the actions that were played on you?

I find this interesting.  Did you have a specific reason to watch Vector?  Action claims can be used to catch out liars come mass claim, so that's always useful.  Vector was targeted a lot because of seniority, I suppose... we'll see.




Speaking of IcyTea and 4maskwolf, IcyTea and by extension 4maskwolf are mafia.  I have reason to suspect we should lynch 4maskwolf first and IcyTea tomorrow (or better yet someone shoot him at night.)

[Toaster]

That's what I get for doing posts out of order and starting lunch midway.

I provisionally believe Jim's inspect on you.  Not near as much as I believe NQT but I'm willing to back off you for now.  As of end of D1, I still favored your lynch (even over Leafsnail) because

...because you had claimed anti-town motivation D1, more interested in getting your hats back than finding scum.  Leafsnail had merely not contributed, and (and I said) was on the line between active lurking and just plain lurking; a player trait I don't lynch target first but am not sad to lose.  NQT, as said above, I read strongly town.

[dolores]

Toaster
What do you think about the fact that NQT just said that he was posting from phone and genuinely thought "his head was on the block"?

Speaking of IcyTea and 4maskwolf, IcyTea and by extension 4maskwolf are mafia.  I have reason to suspect we should lynch 4maskwolf first and IcyTea tomorrow (or better yet someone shoot him at night.)

Gonna let us in on what this is?

[notquitethere]

Vote History

With about two days until the end D1, this is how things stood:

Spoiler: D1, EOD -50 hours (click to show/hide)

Vote Count
------------------------
4maskwolf -
dolores -
FallacyofUrist - heydude6*,
heydude6 -
IcyTea31 - juicebox*, FallacyofUrist*,
Jim Groovester - TricMagic*,
juicebox - Luckyowl*,
Leafsnail - notquitethere*,
Luckyowl -
Nirur Torir -
NJW2000 -
notquitethere -
Toaster - IcyTea31*,
ToonyMan - 4maskwolf*, dolores*,
TricMagic - Leafsnail*, ToonyMan*, Vector*, Jim Groovester*, Toaster*,
Vector -
No Lynch -

Not Voting - Nirur Torir*, NJW2000*,

9 to Hammer. Day ends on December 29, 2020 at 19:00 CST (~50 hours from now).

Tric was on track to get lynched. If Tric is town then scum didn't have to do damn thing, they can snooze the rest of the day. If Tric is mafia then they need to save their buddy.

This is what we then see happen, a big shift to Toony: NJW and Nirur start voting and put their votes on him. Vector switches off of Tric. IcyTea takes their useless Toaster vote off and puts it onto to Toony. And like that, the wagon has swapped over to Toony.

Worth noting, Tric doesn't have to be scum for scum players to prefer a Toony lynch. Toony is a stronger player and Tric had already gathered up a lot of heat and would be easier to lynch on subsequent days especially with the 3rd party allegation hovering over.

Either way, we know that by 21 hours to go, Town-Toony was up for the lynch and scum could go put their feet up and snooze the rest of the day:

Spoiler: D1, EOD -21 Hours (click to show/hide)

Vote Count
------------------------
4maskwolf - 0 -
dolores - 0 -
FallacyofUrist - 0 -
heydude6 - 0 -
IcyTea31 - 1 - Luckyowl*,
Jim Groovester - 1 - FallacyofUrist*,
juicebox - 0 -
Leafsnail - 3 - notquitethere*, ToonyMan*, juicebox*,
Luckyowl - 0 -
Nirur Torir - 0 -
NJW2000 - 0 -
notquitethere - 0 -
Toaster - 0 -
ToonyMan - 7 - 4maskwolf*, Nirur Torir*, TricMagic*, dolores*, NJW2000*, IcyTea31*, Vector*,
TricMagic - 3 - Leafsnail*, Jim Groovester*, Toaster*,
Vector - 0 -
No Lynch -

Not Voting - heydude6*,

9 to Hammer. Day ends on December 29, 2020 at 19:00 CST (4 hours and 25 minutes remaining.)

This is dream time for the scum. Then I decide to mix things up and try to prevent the Toony lynch. I had already been doing the work of badgering people to make their final cases and join wagons, but then I decide to make a positive case for lynching Leafsnail instead. Lynching lurkers is usually considered a bit weaksauce on this forum. Like, bottom of the barrel easy case that's low info flip. Especially at Christmas. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't still do it sometimes because scum genuinely do lurk! Anyway, I prompt people to lynch Leafsnail instead.

Fallacy joins in but otherwise there's quite a bit of resistance. 4mask calls me manipulative (and why shouldn't I be!), Nirur questions the validity of Fallacy's move. Then Toaster joins on the Leafsnail wagon and we get to this point:

Spoiler: D1 - EOD -1 hour (click to show/hide)

Vote Count
------------------------
4maskwolf - 0 -
dolores - 0 -
FallacyofUrist - 0 -
heydude6 - 0 -
IcyTea31 - 1 - Luckyowl*,
Jim Groovester - 0 -
juicebox - 0 -
Leafsnail - 6 - notquitethere*, ToonyMan*, juicebox*, Vector*, FallacyofUrist*, Toaster*,
Luckyowl - 0 -
Nirur Torir - 0 -
NJW2000 - 0 -
notquitethere - 0 -
Toaster - 0 -
ToonyMan - 6 - 4maskwolf*, Nirur Torir*, TricMagic*, dolores*, NJW2000*, IcyTea31*,
TricMagic - 2 - Leafsnail*, Jim Groovester*,
Vector - 0 -
No Lynch -

Not Voting - heydude6*,

9 to Hammer. Day ends on December 29, 2020 at 19:00 CST (1 hours and 0 minutes remaining.)

Up until about this point, I thought the day was ending and that Vector would break the tie and vote Leafsnail and I'd get what I wanted. But then Everything Went Horribly Wrong.

Moreover, at this point, one hour to go, if Leafsnail was mafia then his buddies need to work overtime to get him off. If he's town then they can stay in Snoozeville, population 4. So what do we see happen?

A post later Fallacy leaps off of the Leafsnail vote onto NQT, followed by 4mask who crawls off Toony. This looks good for 4mask's alignment actually, as he was helping lynch Toony before. As for Fallacy, it sort of looks ok for him too: he should be tie breaking onto Toony if Leafsnail were scum. If it's T/T, neither of them need to do any of these last minute shifts, they can take it easy, but getting rid of a nuisance NQT might make sense for scum team.

Tric flips over to NQT off of the self-pres Toony vote, but they don't actually believe in the vote at all. They call it horrible, but better than Leafsnail. Hmm. At this point, Toony sees which way the wind is blowing and wagons me. Putting it dramatically at 4/4/4 Leafsnail/Toony/NQT.

Spoiler:  D1, EOD -38 mins (click to show/hide)

OK, who knows what the vote count is . . . because I don't.

Coming right up!

Vote Count
------------------------
4maskwolf - 0 -
dolores - 0 -
FallacyofUrist - 0 -
heydude6 - 0 -
IcyTea31 - 1 - Luckyowl*,
Jim Groovester - 0 -
juicebox - 0 -
Leafsnail - 4 - notquitethere*, juicebox*, Vector*, Toaster*,
Luckyowl - 0 -
Nirur Torir - 0 -
NJW2000 - 0 -
notquitethere - 4 - 4maskwolf*, TricMagic*, ToonyMan*, FallacyofUrist*,
Toaster - 0 -
ToonyMan - 4 - Nirur Torir*, dolores*, NJW2000*, IcyTea31*,
TricMagic - 2 - Leafsnail*, Jim Groovester*,
Vector - 0 -
No Lynch -

Not Voting - heydude6*,

9 to Hammer. Day ends on December 29, 2020 at 19:00 CST (0 hours and 38 minutes remaining.)

Again, it it's T/T/T, scum don't need to do anything. If it's M/T/T, then they need a final push on NQT or Tric to make it happen. Everything is happening quickly though. I make myself look dodgy by double voting Tric, using Tric's own vote. It's a self-preservation move but I got the calculus wrong, I thought the Leafsnail vote couldn't happen at this point and so I moved to Tric. (Won't lie, there was a bit of outraged OMGUS about this after Tric attacked me). But the very act of doing this gives cause for others to vote me and the Leafsnail vote completely collapses as Toony and later Juicebox move off of it and onto me instead, while Vector and Toaster shift to Tric, and Heydude crawls out of the woodwork and decides to vote me.

Spoiler: D1, EOD -22 mins (click to show/hide)

I literally cannot keep up in real time with this.

Vote Count
------------------------
4maskwolf - 0 -
dolores - 0 -
FallacyofUrist - 0 -
heydude6 - 0 -
IcyTea31 - 1 - Luckyowl*,
Jim Groovester - 0 -
juicebox - 0 -
Leafsnail - 1 - juicebox*,
Luckyowl - 0 -
Nirur Torir - 0 -
NJW2000 - 0 -
notquitethere - 4 - 4maskwolf*, ToonyMan*, FallacyofUrist*, heydude6*,
Toaster - 0 -
ToonyMan - 4 - Nirur Torir*, dolores*, NJW2000*, IcyTea31*,
TricMagic - 6 - Leafsnail*, Vector*, Jim Groovester*, Toaster*, notquitethere*, notquitethere*,
Vector - 0 -
No Lynch -

Not Voting -
9 to Hammer. Day ends on December 29, 2020 at 19:00 CST (0 hours and 22 minutes remaining.)

And then before your know it, Tric is back on the chopping block. If Tric is scum, then mafia have 22 minutes to save their buddy. If Tric is town, then they can snooze. So what happens?

ICT moves from Toony onto NQT for some figleaf reason. Followed by Dolores who would prefer to kill Toony but doesn't want to kill Tric. And with that NQT is set to be lynched:

Spoiler: D1, EOD -10 mins (click to show/hide)

Vote Count
------------------------
4maskwolf - 0 -
dolores - 0 -
FallacyofUrist - 0 -
heydude6 - 0 -
IcyTea31 - 1 - Luckyowl*,
Jim Groovester - 0 -
juicebox - 0 -
Leafsnail - 0 -
Luckyowl - 0 -
Nirur Torir - 0 -
NJW2000 - 0 -
notquitethere - 7 - 4maskwolf*, ToonyMan*, juicebox*, dolores*, IcyTea31*, FallacyofUrist*, heydude6*,
Toaster - 0 -
ToonyMan - 2 - Nirur Torir*, NJW2000*,
TricMagic - 6 - Leafsnail*, Vector*, Jim Groovester*, Toaster*, notquitethere*, notquitethere*,
Vector - 0 -
No Lynch -

Not Voting -

9 to Hammer. Day ends on December 29, 2020 at 19:00 CST (0 hours and 10 minutes remaining.)

So scum can high five, breathe a sigh of relief, NQT is gonna die. But then Dolores takes NQT's offer at killing Toony instead. And so switches over. 4mask, apparently satisfied does so as well. ICT follows suit. Leafsnail swaps from Tric to NQT. Vector makes a final vote to avoid ties and we reach day end with a dead Toony:

Spoiler: D1 End (click to show/hide)

hector13's eyes begin to glow red, and he begins to look towards the voteboard. The votes shift rapidly at the end of the day, like a roulette wheel, but the only color on the wheel today is red.

As the end of Day approaches, the timer begins to tick down. The votes move faster. Everyone is watching intently, and the board itself cannot keep track as the Day ends...

It stops.

Vote Count
------------------------
4maskwolf - 0 -
dolores - 0 -
FallacyofUrist - 0 -
heydude6 - 0 -
IcyTea31 - 1 - Luckyowl*,
Jim Groovester - 0 -
juicebox - 0 -
Leafsnail - 0 -
Luckyowl - 0 -
Nirur Torir - 0 -
NJW2000 - 0 -
notquitethere - 5 - Leafsnail*, ToonyMan*, juicebox*, FallacyofUrist*, heydude6*,
Toaster - 0 -
ToonyMan - 8 - 4maskwolf*, Nirur Torir*, notquitethere*, notquitethere*, dolores*, NJW2000*, IcyTea31*, Vector*,
TricMagic - 2 - Jim Groovester*, Toaster*,
Vector - 0 -
No Lynch -

Not Voting -

ToonyMan has been lynched!

ToonyMan has become a Wayward Soul.

Initial Analysis

Players that acted to save Leafsnail when it looked like Leafsnail might die:
Fallacy (sort of)
Heydude6
+ if they were on a fake bus before:
Toaster
Vector

Players that acted to save Tric when it looked like Tric might die:
NJW
Nirur Torir
ICT (both times)
Dolores
+ if they were on a fake bus before:
Vector
Leafsnail

Players that did bugger all:
LuckyOwl
Jim Groovester

Players that moved their vote but only ever voted town:
4maskwolf
Dolores
TricMagic

Players Not Included In The Above Categories
Toonyman (confirmed town)
NQT (it me)
Juicebox (confirmed 3rd party)


Initial Conclusions

It all depends on how Tric and Leafsnail flip. I had been thinking that Tric was town and Leafsnail good candidate for scum, but it's possible for them both to be town or both to be scum (Tric never voted Leafsnail, openly stating they thought it was a bad lynch; Leafsnail swapped onto NQT at the end after not doing anything).

If both players are non-mafia, then the players who did the least are most suspicious, as they had no major reason to engage as non-mafia were dying regardless. This implicates LuckyOwl and Jim Groovester most of all.

If Leafsnail is mafia, then Heydude6 would be a good fit for a team mate, and Tric a secondary possibility.

If Tric is mafia, then their team mates are among NJW, Nirur Torir, ICT or Dolores, with Leafsnail a more distant possibility.

So... a lot of potential teams!

Looking at Team Do Nothing: Jim and LuckyOwl. Lucky wasn't even around for the last 30 hours of the day, who knows what they would have done if they were about. Jim was about and posting, and stuck doggedly on the Tric wagon the whole time. We might think that's preferable to swapping over to lynch Toony or NQT when the opportunity arose given they're both town, but if it turns out everyone was town at the end of D1 then we should revisit these two.

Looking at team Tric: NJW and Nirur came quickly out of the woodwork to save him the first time round, but neither swapped onto NQT the second time. ICT saved Tric twice, but also swapped off of NQT onto Toony, which was unnecessary if they were Tric's ally. Dolores acted hard to save Tric.

Looking at team Leafsnail: I don't really buy Vector and Toaster, given that they didn't need to bus Leafsnail that close to the wire when there were other options. Heydude sort of helped Leafsnail out but it was marginal. When it did come down to the wire, a lot of players questioned a Leafsnail lynch but I don't see that any stuck their neck out. This doesn't mean leafsnail can't be scum (mafia often bus or let their teammates die through distancing) but just that nobody is massively implicated if he does flip scum.


All of which to say... this is difficult and I still have a lot of questions. Let's start with this one:

Dolores, why was it so important to you that Toony die instead of TricMagic?


An addendum on the Juicebox

Juicebox was a slightly malicious 3rd party. Their game plan would have been to just blend in with town and then crown as and when the opportunity came up. They were suspicious of Leafsnail and it might be a bit WIFOMy but this at least gives us prima facie reason to suspect Leafsnail as their potential killer (if we reason that mafia think I would be easier to lynch that Juicebox). But maybe mafia just picked Juice to throw shade on Leafsnail and because their death is low info.

[IcyTea31]

ICT: anyone you disagree with being in my towncore? I'm looking for thoughts specifically on NJW, though obviously the others if you also disagree with those.

I disagree with some points, but my current read list involves mechanical knowledge I'm not yet ready to publish.

In that regard I can give you a No Bonk badge dolores. I got the pons for it and another.

Where did you get those pons?

IcyTea:

Did you have a specific reason to watch Vector? -- Vector was targeted a lot because of seniority, I suppose...

You answered your own question. Add to that the big rant raising attention and you've got it.