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[ChairmanPoo]

Take it with a pinch of salt. #1 there is more to immunity than antibodies (though its certainly concerning), and #2 is anecdottal... would require more looking into imo. Maybe it was a reactivation, maybe infection number one was a false positive... who knows. I'm not persuaded there is no immunity. Although I certainly wouldn't risk exposure in any event, as a precaution.

"Herd immunity" strategies are still stupid in either scenario. More so in the ultra-transient immunity one.

[dragdeler]

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[ChairmanPoo]

I mean its kind of weird even if it IS an infection, most people are maintaining IgG positivity for a while. I think there must be more to his case because in either scenario he seems an outlier.

I guess we'll find out soon anyway. It has been 4 months since March. If its true that immunity drops after 3 months I'm guessing we'll begin to see case reports of reinfected folks far more often. :/

Damn. If this crap goes seasonal we're in deep shit

[MetalSlimeHunt]

MERS and SARS-1 appear to have immunity periods of around three years from the available data, but that's no guarantee since they failed to become global pandemics as well.

At this point I'm expecting one of three scenarios:

1. Virus printer goes BRR - Covid just keeps going, immediately drawing back up in any nation that drops quarantine, and there is a meaningful heard immunity period which knowing our luck will be reached just as we approve a usable vaccine.

2. Seasonality - there's a weird amount of evidence right now that covid is doing better in hot climates and seasons. I do not have the slightest idea why that should be possible given the infamous weakness of coronaviruses to hot weather, but the data speaks for itself. Some have suggesting air conditioning spreads it dramatically fast and thus this happens in hot places more, but that doesn't explain Brazil's infection - only 16% of the population there uses AC.

3. Hard 70 - The worst case scenario not yet disproven, and what those links warn of. Covid, whether seasonal or constant, has a functional immunity period of 3-6 months. Repeated infections sweep the world with the same frequency as the common cold and, in the absence of a vaccine that can overcome this limitation, the population over age 70 completely collapses alongside an extreme uptick in blood clot-related organ damage for those below 70.

[ChairmanPoo]

I think we'll find out fairly soon. So far we there are very few reports, to my knowledge... around 8-10 possible cases...  but it has been ~3months (2-4 depending on the area). I guess if people are going to be susceptible again in a short time frame we ought to start seeing more cases around now

🤞🤞

[misko27]

Bear in mind that communities ravaged by the virus (as a percentage of total population) tend to not still be ravaged by the virus in 3 months, if Wuhan, Lombardy, and New York are any indication. Which means that the circumstances in which people might be (re)infected (or inversely, prove longterm immunity) are rarer than one might initially imagine, which presents us a problem. If the virus were still raging through China we'd probably know for sure, one way or the other, but we may have to wait for a second wave to know for sure.

The situation with people who may have been asymptomatic their first time and never realized they were infected only complicates all of this further.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

The thing is that Wuhan, Lombardy, and New York all enacted strict lockdown procedures (and Wuhan, most strict among them, got the best result). So I don't think this is the result of any kind of immunity, just successful lockdown truncating infections.

[TamerVirus]

The only issue now in New York is to keep them infect folk from visiting and bringing their 'gifts'.
Quarantines for 22 states!
That population is about half the country.

[ChairmanPoo]

Nobody really  thinks this stopped due to immunity and jot the lockdown. Barring the trumps and bolso's of the world that is. Seroprevalence studies show the tsunami was with only 5% of infections. Even if it is an underestimate and the real number is higher, its dubious it would be anywhere near the thresholds needed for that.

The ones who do have % close to herd immunity are Madrid's nursing homes, with seroprevalences of 70%. Of course this was because the virus ran rampant and killed 17% of residemts sp there is that

[Iduno]

Bear in mind that communities ravaged by the virus (as a percentage of total population) tend to not still be ravaged by the virus in 3 months, if Wuhan, Lombardy, and New York are any indication.

Could be that they're capable of learning. Florida and Texas have been hotspots for well over 3 months, due to disbelief turning out to be a different sort of thing than immunity.

[Starver]

I don't believe that! And, anyway, I've been practicing herd immunity by making sure I properly close the gate behind me whenever leaving the cows' field. (It seems to be working better than my attempt to make my own flock wallpaper, as well. The big problem with that being I needed a whole lot more glue and time pressing each sheep onto the wall than I had originally planned on.)

[misko27]

So I don't think this is the result of any kind of immunity, just successful lockdown truncating infections.

Oh neither do I. I think the success of lockdown is unrelated really. Rather I was pointing to the tendency of a virus to burn out on very local level (referring mostly to individual cities) because of lockdowns or even just simply "burning through its fuel" as it were.

Since most people were uninfected though, a second wave in those areas is still possible, and if it occurs there will no doubt be large-scale exposure of people who've overcome the virus to newly sick, and this will give us the best chance to see whether immunity lasts. However until that occurs it's simply not very likely to be exposed to the virus 3-6 months after you get better (and specifically when you recover and not when you first get sick!) because your area (in a narrow sense), statistically, has probably gotten the virus under control by then.

As a result I suspect that the outbreaks in the West and South will be most likely to give an answer, as, well... yeah.

[ChairmanPoo]

Bear in mind that communities ravaged by the virus (as a percentage of total population) tend to not still be ravaged by the virus in 3 months, if Wuhan, Lombardy, and New York are any indication.

Could be that they're capable of learning. Florida and Texas have been hotspots for well over 3 months, due to disbelief turning out to be a different sort of thing than immunity.

Well then I guess we'll learn through them what are the odds of reinfection.

Teamwork!

[Iduno]

Bear in mind that communities ravaged by the virus (as a percentage of total population) tend to not still be ravaged by the virus in 3 months, if Wuhan, Lombardy, and New York are any indication.

Could be that they're capable of learning. Florida and Texas have been hotspots for well over 3 months, due to disbelief turning out to be a different sort of thing than immunity.

Well then I guess we'll learn through them what are the odds of reinfection.

Teamwork!

Well, they're also both not good about testing or admitting to results, which will skew any information from them.

[wierd]

Hospitals keep records though.

Enough aggregate data will exist to get a proximal baseline that is useful.