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[scriver]

Ew, cancer noodles

(I hope you don't take offense misko)

[misko27]

Of course not. We're not... too worried, not with everything else going on. And colonoscopy is inherently a very funny procedure, down to the giant gallon-sized bottle of disgusting medicine they have you drink to flush out your intestines with diarrhea, dryly named "Golytely"; humor is the only tool capable of making sense of it. But suppose it was more serious? What would she do? Nothing's open. Hospital space simply didn't exist to do something like that. What about others with worse cases?

[Max™]

Funny seeing talk about ft over worldometer when ft uses worldometer to bolster their dataset.

As it is, ft is obviously too low because it is lower than worldometer which is obviously too low in the US for any number of reasons but just the most obvious indication of the problem is that the tested numbers are probably fairly reliable, and we're looking at 7.1 mil tests which found 1.1 mil cases.

There is no situation in which it is possible to imagine we're magically finding all infections at a rate of 1 per 7 tested, it would be difficult to argue we were finding them all if we were several times higher on that positive:negative ratio or a lot higher than 21k tested per 1 mil pop, but 1:7 is, as they say, a steep hill to climb, or something like that.

[martinuzz]

Boris Johnson told The Sun on Sunday that he underestimated the virus.
He said that being in hospital, and seeing that his blood oxygen values kept dropping despite having an oxygen tube in his nose pumping litres of oxygen into him, scared the fuck out of him.  At some point he thought he was not going to survive.
He named his newborn child after the two doctors that treated him.
At a press conference, it became clear that Johnson is still very much out of breath. His lungs got quite a beating.

[mko]

Excess mortality being amount of deaths this time of year compared to last year (or maybe an average of many years?)?

This is a good explanation of how simplest possible solution works, that is already very useful. Though it will be almost certainly average of multiple years, not just comparing with previous year. Often outliers (like current COVID period) will be excluded.

But often it is more complicated to better handle various complexities.

See https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/methods/

Graphs are at https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/#excess-mortality and cover some European countries (or parts of them)

Modelling of the baseline

The hypothesis made to generate the model are very simple and do not aim at describing what really happens but aims at providing simple principle for modelling.
Hypothesis

    The main mortality pattern in European countries is a Poisson distributed time series following a trend and in some cases a sine cycle of a period of one year.
    During winter and summer, that process is modified by additional factors mainly related to winter infections such as influenza and summer heat waves leading to yearly excess of deaths of variable amplitude.
    Parts of Spring and Autumn are less likely to be influenced by additional processes leading to excess deaths and the main pattern of mortality can therefore be modelling using only those periods, resulting in a baseline being the number of deaths expected when no particular process increases mortality.
    A stable time series process can be modelled using only samples of the time series.

Type of models

Four slightly different models can be chosen by the user, to better fit the local pattern and specific population subgroups. The trend is modelled by either by a straight line or by a linear spline with 2 knots, meaning that non linear trends can be modelled using 3 different linear segments joining at the knots, equally spaced along the data set. Seasonality is modelled by a sine curve of period one year, but model without seasonality can also be designed.

For the age groups defined for EuroMOMO, the models by default will be

    0 to 4 and 5 to 14: trend = linear trend, no seasonality
    15 to 64, >= 65 and Total: linear trend, seasonality 25

[Teneb]

Meanwhile in Brasil we just passed 7k confirmed deaths. Note that anyone who dies of what is probably corona but wasn't tested gets tagged as dying from "respiratory syndrome". And there are a lot of deaths from that, like: a lot. Way more than is normal for this time of the year. Can't find the numbers.

Part of me wants to do a big post on my LAmeripol thread about the rest of the bullshit Brasil is going through, but I get too damn furious.

[Iduno]

Of course not. We're not... too worried, not with everything else going on. And colonoscopy is inherently a very funny procedure, down to the giant gallon-sized bottle of disgusting medicine they have you drink to flush out your intestines with diarrhea, dryly named "Golytely"; humor is the only tool capable of making sense of it. But suppose it was more serious? What would she do? Nothing's open. Hospital space simply didn't exist to do something like that. What about others with worse cases?

That was...interesting medicine. Considering my issue was "diarrhea from everything", my doctor wasn't entirely wrong about the "you haven't seen anything yet."

[Bumber]

I see many plump people rolling walking on the roads.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

[Frumple]

Heh. County near-ish me finally got around to starting to test a local prison -- their confirmed covid cases promptly duodecupled, more or less. Went from sub 5 to over 50 over the course of a weekend. Near as I can tell, they might have tested more people behind the bars than on their streets at this point. Not sure who that's less comforting for, though, the people inside the plague pit or the people down the road from it...

Really is a sort of microcosm of both how fucked the prisons are and how abandoned the population in general in a lot of places stateside is, though

[scriver]

...times by 20?

[wierd]

"But our low numbers! The ones we *NEED* to be able to justify re-opening our economies (because of the pronounced consequences of the lack of civil safety nets, which we have been dismantling for decades because of our ribald greed!)--- Can we somehow test in a fashion that purposefully skews the numbers away from that dread specter of reality!?"


Sorry, but that's what my brain interprets these kinds of things as. 

[martinuzz]

Fauci has rejected the theory that the virus is made in a lab in Wuhan, contradicting Trump and Pompeo.
In an interview with National Geographic Fauci said " the best evidence shows that the virus was not created in a lab in China. All evidence points at the virus having originated in nature, and after that it was transmitted to others."
This is a disappointment for the Trump administration, which increasingly targets China and blames it for the pandemic. Last week Trump said he had seen convincing evidence that the virus originated in the Wuhan Institute of Virology, although he refused to say what the evidence is.
Past sunday, Pompeo increased pressure on China, saying he had seen 'enormously much evidence' to support the laboratory theory. Pompeo too refused to comment on what evidence that might be.

It is expected that death threats against Fauci will increase.
He is being guarded 24/7 by the Secret Service nowadays because of death threats from Trump supporters.

[Bumber]

Fauci has rejected the theory that the virus is made in a lab in Wuhan, contradicting Trump and Pompeo.
In an interview with National Geographic Fauci said " the best evidence shows that the virus was not created in a lab in China. All evidence points at the virus having originated in nature, and after that it was transmitted to others."
This is a disappointment for the Trump administration, which increasingly targets China and blames it for the pandemic. Last week Trump said he had seen convincing evidence that the virus originated in the Wuhan Institute of Virology, although he refused to say what the evidence is.
Past sunday, Pompeo increased pressure on China, saying he had seen 'enormously much evidence' to support the laboratory theory. Pompeo too refused to comment on what evidence that might be.

It is expected that death threats against Fauci will increase.
He is being guarded 24/7 by the Secret Service nowadays because of death threats from Trump supporters.

When Trump says the virus outbreak originated in a lab, he doesn't necessarily mean the virus was engineered there. The Wuhan Institue of Virology studies coronaviruses in intermediate horseshoe bats. It's not at all far-fetched to say a virus escaped due to negligence.

What the U.S. officials learned during their visits concerned them so much that they dispatched two diplomatic cables categorized as Sensitive But Unclassified back to Washington. The cables warned about safety and management weaknesses at the WIV lab and proposed more attention and help. The first cable, which I obtained, also warns that the lab’s work on bat coronaviruses and their potential human transmission represented a risk of a new SARS-like pandemic.

"During interactions with scientists at the WIV laboratory, they noted the new lab has a serious shortage of appropriately trained technicians and investigators needed to safely operate this high-containment laboratory,"

As many have pointed out, there is no evidence that the virus now plaguing the world was engineered; scientists largely agree it came from animals. But that is not the same as saying it didn’t come from the lab, which spent years testing bat coronaviruses in animals, said Xiao Qiang, a research scientist at the School of Information at the University of California at Berkeley.

But sure, the outbreak probably started in the Wuhan wetmarket, where they don't even sell bats. Let's keep believing that.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

That's just the Trump omnihedge at work - take every possible position and then retroactively instruct the public that you only ever believed the one you liked the outcome of most. Even if that were true, then it still didn't "come from the lab" in any sense except to stir up more hostility to China. It came from the general bat population and would have made the zoonotic jump whenever circumstances aligned.

But it's also not true since the early patients weren't lab workers. They were market customers.

[Bumber]

That's just the Trump omnihedge at work - take every possible position and then retroactively instruct the public that you only ever believed the one you liked the outcome of most. Even if that were true, then it still didn't "come from the lab" in any sense except to stir up more hostility to China. It came from the general bat population and would have made the zoonotic jump whenever circumstances aligned.

Senator Tom Cotton way saying it before Trump was. Here's Cotton's clarification to his original statements all the way back in February 18. (Apologies in advance for Fox News link, but this is what the Trump supporters in question are being told.)

Media has been strawmanning and false dichotomizing the issue ever since. It's either a bioweapon or it came from the wetmarket, and nothing in between.