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[Max™]

Oh dear, an optimistic viewpoint... I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but... here I go:

The next few weeks are probably when we'll be able to really appreciate exactly how badly various countries like mine have screwed this up, we're just coming up on the window where the early asymptomatic spreaders and their victims are going to become very alarmingly visible, but we're still a couple of transmission steps off from what I fear the full pre-action count is going to wind up at.

Over here we're still so behind we're having to prioritize testing the most obvious cases in basically every state still, so any suggestion that we might have a true sense of scale on just the direct effects of the virus yet is laughably incorrect.

Laughable because otherwise you just kinda want to break down in big heaving sobs that despite every effort being taken by turdbaby to ignore, deny, and spin the numbers somehow... reality is leaking in past his dumbfuckery field because no matter how utterly incapable of critical thinking and basic human decency the shitrag and his supporters are--levels of terribleness previously unseen outside of the shittiest corners of 4chan--it pales in comparison to the sheer horrifying mass of confirmed cases which are just the pale yet black and dimly glittering bits of a submerged deathberg that extends so far into the abyss below we can't even get properly frightened over captain turdfuck gleefully steering into it.

Yet we can all rest assured that while we are currently piling into lifeboats hoping later we get picked up by a rescue ship, the flaccid orange heap of vomit will proudly claim he saved everyone, that we can all relax and party, and turn the ship right back around towards the deathberg so he can ram it this time by making sure people feel safe resuming normal contact while we're still hundreds of millions of cases away from herd immunity and best case a year from a vaccine.


...then you have to consider the economic effects that mean when survivors do finally make it back to shore, it might be on fire.

Sorry to be a huge downer but this is a kindness, better to expect the worst and turn out wrong than hope blindly in the face of horrific facts.

[ChairmanPoo]

Oh dear, an optimistic viewpoint... I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but... here I go:

The next few weeks are probably when we'll be able to really appreciate exactly how badly various countries like mine have screwed this up, we're just coming up on the window where the early asymptomatic spreaders and their victims are going to become very alarmingly visible, but we're still a couple of transmission steps off from what I fear the full pre-action count is going to wind up at.

Over here we're still so behind we're having to prioritize testing the most obvious cases in basically every state still, so any suggestion that we might have a true sense of scale on just the direct effects of the virus yet is laughably incorrect.

Laughable because otherwise you just kinda want to break down in big heaving sobs that despite every effort being taken by turdbaby to ignore, deny, and spin the numbers somehow... reality is leaking in past his dumbfuckery field because no matter how utterly incapable of critical thinking and basic human decency the shitrag and his supporters are--levels of terribleness previously unseen outside of the shittiest corners of 4chan--it pales in comparison to the sheer horrifying mass of confirmed cases which are just the pale yet black and dimly glittering bits of a submerged deathberg that extends so far into the abyss below we can't even get properly frightened over captain turdfuck gleefully steering into it.

Yet we can all rest assured that while we are currently piling into lifeboats hoping later we get picked up by a rescue ship, the flaccid orange heap of vomit will proudly claim he saved everyone, that we can all relax and party, and turn the ship right back around towards the deathberg so he can ram it this time by making sure people feel safe resuming normal contact while we're still hundreds of millions of cases away from herd immunity and best case a year from a vaccine.


...then you have to consider the economic effects that mean when survivors do finally make it back to shore, it might be on fire.

Sorry to be a huge downer but this is a kindness, better to expect the worst and turn out wrong than hope blindly in the face of horrific facts.

I understand very well. I'm appalled by what Trump and Boris Johnson are doing to manage this. Utterly appalled.

Mind you, the situation here is bad enough. It frightens me and creates a lot of uncertainity. I try not to think too much about it. And I try not to think too much about what will happen in the US and UK because it's too awful to consider 

[Max™]

Then there's the countries we've barely heard from yet, any word from Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, or god damn us all... anywhere in Africa that you folks have seen?

I was concerned about this in late jan/early feb, I was scared in late feb but torn between relief that Trump is going to fuck himself over and horror over the damage it is going to do, by early march the helpless state between outrage and despondency was starting to set in, now I'm at a point where I can let things sink in without wanting to puke so badly I can't control it because I've been grieving beforehand--and grew up glaring hatefully at a psychopath abusing my mother while planning all the gruesome things I would have to do to stop him for good--so my tolerance for awfulness and evil is pretty goddamn high but I don't think I could have handled any of this if I had ever truly hoped it might turn out ok.

The idea that anybody out there is hopeful this will end up being over at any point this year or maybe it won't be that bad?

That makes my stomach clench up and hurt, which I suppose is a sign that I'm still a good person deep down somewhere, because I ache for people I'll never know and the loss of whatever innocence they might have had left remains upsetting though the monster in me wants to watch the fuckbags letting this happen suffer as they drown in their own lungs so I could tell them not to worry, help is on the way, they're going to be fine... before walking over to the door, turning out the light, quietly closing the door behind me, and nailing it shut.

[Frumple]

There's been word from those areas, yes. Mostly consisting of 'yes they're getting cases', 'no they're not testing aggressively', and 'no their medical capacity isn't even remotely ready for the stress the crow plague is bringing it'. So word, yes, word of pestilence cosplaying mumra and going all 'ancient spirits of evil, transform this decaying form' as its prep work for the next few weeks

[mko]

Russia claims very low number of covid cases, there are reports about very high number of serious pneumonia that is totally absolutely not covid19.

Not sure whatever it is case of "China numbers are 100% false" paranoia or "we are not invading Ukraine" blatant lies case. I suspect second, with Olympic-in-Sochi level of falsifying of results[1] but it is a pure guess. Maybe their initial closure of border with China and rolling out testing worked and there is no need to lie?

Officially - 367 cases, some recoveries, 0 deaths.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Russia

Coronavirus testing in Russia is provided by a single lab in Novosibirsk.

[1] Russia's national anti-doping laboratory was coordinating doping programs and falsifying test results, urine samples in Sochi were replaced to hide a blatant doping. "Systematic doping in Russian sports has resulted in 47 Olympic and tens of world championships medals being stripped from Russian athletes — the most of any country, more than four times the number of the runner-up, and more than 30% of the global total. Russia also have the most athletes that were caught doping at the Olympic Games, with more than 200." See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doping_in_Russia - I recommend  Icarus - AFAIK available on Netflix

Their official (even accredited) testing results are not really trustworthy.

[ChairmanPoo]

The idea that anybody out there is hopeful this will end up being over at any point this year or maybe it won't be that bad?

You misunderstand. I was hoping that MAYBE we are flattening the curve in my immediate area, and maybe my country overall. And thus if everything goes well maybe the lockdown will stop in a couple of months.

It doesn't mean it's over. What follows is society more or less working at a normal rate, but with social distancing, face masks everywhere, and close COVID monitoring, possibly random testing, to quarantine cases as soon as they pop up and relock as soon as there is any suggestion that there might be another spurt.

Really this is all about preventing the healthcare services from being overrun, little else. Covid will still be spinning around. 

I think we really really need to make people aware that these images that we see in Tokyo? People wearing face masks often, esp in public transport, even if there is no pandemic warning?
That's our new reality. That's us now. TBH I think we should probably consider greeting people through bowing like in Asian cultures rather than shaking hands.  I think by now we're all aware that the risk of the person you're greeting having a knife is far lower than the risk of having something contagious, so the former is more practical than the latter.

[Frumple]

I mean, for what it's worth it (well, the crow plague specifically) probably will be mostly dealt with within a year or two? 14-18 months to finish rolling out a vaccine, then a bit more to ramp up production and inoculation. Lots of knock on effects during and after but there is something of a light at the end of the tunnel, so to speak. Sorta'. On specific fronts.

In less specific fronts, the latest relief bill in the US failed to even make cloture, thanks in part to a handful of GOP senators now being quarantined after testing positive for covid. So there's that. E: Also the bill was apparently pretty shit anyway, so I guess no actual loss there for the general american public *shrugs*

[mko]

14-18 months to finish rolling out a vaccine

This is extremely optimistic.

I think we really really need to make people aware that these images that we see in Tokyo? People wearing face masks often, esp in public transport, even if there is no pandemic warning?
That's our new reality. That's us now. TBH I think we should probably consider greeting people through bowing like in Asian cultures rather than shaking hands.  I think by now we're all aware that the risk of the person you're greeting having a knife is far lower than the risk of having something contagious, so the former is more practical than the latter.

It may be a good idea. Is there a decent chance that it would reduce death ratio from also other diseases?

[Reelya]

There have been studies done suggesting that mask wearing is in fact pretty effective for stopping you getting flu specifically. So that should carry over to ones with a similar vector.

Think about it, if the mask is effective to reduce the amount of droplets getting out when a sick person coughs/sneezes, then by any reasonable logic, they're also effective stopping the (many less) droplets getting in.

The argument that "the pores on the masks are too large to stop something as small as a virus" is bullshit logic basically. Most respiratory viruses aren't just traveling by themselves, they're in expelled droplets, which are large enough to be stopped.

They're also effective at preventing you from randomly touching your face.

[Rolan7]

The recommendation is N95 respirators for actual safety, but it's reasonable to think that cotton masks will help.

How much they help against *receiving* the virus is very questionable though because: if the vector is airborne particles - from a cough or sneeze - you would need goggles as well.  This is why professionals keep suggesting masks for infected people, not uninfected.

The virus-laden droplets "live" for a couple days on surfaces people touch, and then people touch their eyes/nose/mouth.  This is why hand washing is the most helpful measure.  Being too close to an asymptomatic carrier's respiration is also bad, but a cloth mask isn't going to save you from that.

Always think before touching your face!

[Frumple]

I'm pretty sure I'm repeating it, but iirc initial studies on the crow plague specifically suggested masks -- even less than ideal, high end ones -- reduces the chance of infection by like 20%, somewhere in that region. It is, again, not a silver bullet, but it very much does help. Dropping infection rates by a fifth could easily be a six figure or better difference in eventual body count.

[ZBridges]

The masks are also helpful because a significant portion of those infected are asymptomatic but highly contagious.  Without widespread testing, as many people wearing masks as possible can limit the spread.

[Rolan7]

Went out walking with housemates today, and one started muttering the chorus to REM's It's The End Of The World, and I chimed in: "And I feel asymptomatic".

Good joke.  Everybody laughs darkly.  Curtains.

[feelotraveller]

Here's how we could/should have reacted, assuming freely available tests.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-21/one-italian-town-is-bucking-the-countrys-coronavirus-curve/12075048

Test the entire population then quarantine those who return positive results.  Seems to have been a successful recipe at the epicentre of the european breakout.

(Also note the figure of 3% of the towns population being infected by the virus at the point where the first death - in Italy - occurred.  That's why everyone needs to be tested.)

[martinuzz]

The wear facemasks thing as well as the test everyone thing is wishful thinking.
There are not enough tests available for lack of materials. 

This might have something to do with China ramping up it's testing capacity to 1.5 million a day a few weeks ago, using up all global supplies.

There are no face masks available.

 Our government is even asking citizens who own facemask not to use them but instead donate them to hospitals so doctors can use them, hospitals are running out.