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Author Topic: Untamed Virus Containment Thread:COVID-19: Lurking Omni-Flu Edition  (Read 497718 times)

delphonso

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: SARS Harder
« Reply #375 on: February 28, 2020, 07:50:24 am »

Masks are for containment, not protection. Hand washing will protect you, but a facemask won't do much to prevent infection unless someone coughs in your face. That said, it's a humanitarian responsibility to help collectively reduce infections. Since this virus is contageous before symptoms, telling everyone that a mask will keep you safe is just a good way to keep every transmitter from spreading it too much.

Don't break the bank on masks, Reelya. Just stay a few meters away from everyone else.

JoshuaFH

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: SARS Harder
« Reply #376 on: February 28, 2020, 08:02:36 am »

I'm less worried about the disease itself than the knock-on economic effects.  DOW dropped 1200 points today, and we haven't even hit the supply chain crunch yet.  Everything's just-in-time now so imagine what it's gonna look like if there's a panic rush for supplies and a shortage of said supplies at the same time.  I used to work at a grocery store, we got trucks in every day to maintain maybe half the store's on-shelf inventory in backstock.  The deli cooler had capacity for maybe 48 hours of normal shopping without a resupply, and the more I think about it the more that sounds optimistic.

If there's a panic, stores will be empty in hours, and there's not gonna be any restocking.

Question: supposing I were to be 'smart' and start discretely stocking up right now (in U.S.) what would be good things to buy to start hoarding right now.
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Reelya

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: SARS Harder
« Reply #377 on: February 28, 2020, 08:06:28 am »

Masks do one thing though. They keep your mouth and nasal passages a lot warmer. Rhinoviruses for example thrive in specific temperatures that are a bit lower than body temperature. Making it just a couple of degrees warmer may in fact strongly reduce the proliferation rate.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-colds/cold-weather-can-actually-cause-colds-study-finds-idUSKBN0KE1OK20150105
https://academic.oup.com/fampra/article/22/6/608/497956

So that's an indirect way they may protect you. If coronaviruses spread in colder weather and they're anything like rhinoviruses then they should replicate more slowly if you keep the nasal passage warm, giving you more change to fight off the infection. Masks create a barrier of warmer exhaled air.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2020, 08:08:11 am by Reelya »
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delphonso

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: SARS Harder
« Reply #378 on: February 28, 2020, 08:09:26 am »

Canned food lasts forever. You ever been hit with a can of beans? They make good weapons too.

That's an interesting point, Reelya.

scriver

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: SARS Harder
« Reply #379 on: February 28, 2020, 08:12:16 am »

That's probably why I'm influenzed so rarely.

I'm just too hot.
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Il Palazzo

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: SARS Harder
« Reply #380 on: February 28, 2020, 08:14:09 am »

Question: supposing I were to be 'smart' and start discretely stocking up right now (in U.S.) what would be good things to buy to start hoarding right now.
Campbell's tomato soup. And peaches in syrup. And guns, with lots of spare ammo.

For more information please refer to Cormac McCarthy's seminal work on the subject entitled 'The Road'.
Also, watch out for Tamer Virus roaming the wasteland, for he's similarly prepared.
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Reelya

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: SARS Harder
« Reply #381 on: February 28, 2020, 08:19:10 am »

If you're going to plan it out, then you want canned foods that are high in protein to go with your bags of dry rice. Canned tuna and canned beans are good choices. Also, a few kilos of milk powder.

I'm not sure I agree with the tomato soup idea. Lycopene is the main good thing in tomatoes that you're getting as far as I know, and that is more concentrated in tomato pastes or tomato sauces. Canned sardines in tomato sauce are thus a good choice, because they're high in omega3s, fats, protein and lycopene.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2020, 08:21:53 am by Reelya »
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Il Palazzo

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: SARS Harder
« Reply #382 on: February 28, 2020, 08:20:42 am »

Masks do one thing though. They keep your mouth and nasal passages a lot warmer. Rhinoviruses for example thrive in specific temperatures that are a bit lower than body temperature. Making it just a couple of degrees warmer may in fact strongly reduce the proliferation rate.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-colds/cold-weather-can-actually-cause-colds-study-finds-idUSKBN0KE1OK20150105
https://academic.oup.com/fampra/article/22/6/608/497956

So that's an indirect way they may protect you. If coronaviruses spread in colder weather and they're anything like rhinoviruses then they should replicate more slowly if you keep the nasal passage warm, giving you more change to fight off the infection. Masks create a barrier of warmer exhaled air.
Or, you could follow the advice of the WHO, rather than come up with armchair reasons to do otherwise.
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks
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Reelya

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: SARS Harder
« Reply #383 on: February 28, 2020, 08:28:57 am »

That source has this bit however:

Quote
One of the first studies to test how environmental conditions affect viral transmission was published in 2007, and it looked at how influenza spread through guinea pigs infected in a lab. High temperatures and in particular high humidity slowed the influenza spread, and at very high humidity levels, the virus stopped spreading completely. Warmer air holds more moisture, which prevents airborne viruses from traveling as far as they would in dry air. In humid conditions, the small liquid droplets in a cough or sneeze gather more moisture as they’re expelled. Eventually too heavy to stay airborne, they drop to the ground.

Which would suggest that masks, which both act as a barrier and keep your airways warm and moist should have some effect.

It's just common sense. Naturally, it's already been studied:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/do-face-masks-prevent-virus_l_5e304a13c5b6ce51a4ec0a09

Quote
There is some evidence that, when used correctly, face masks can slow the spread of airborne viruses. For example, one study from 2008 found that those who used a mask were 80% less likely to get the flu. Another 2009 report found that, in tandem with frequent hand-washing, face masks lowered people’s risk of getting the flu by about 70%.

So that's strong empirical evidence, along with the above reasoning-based argument, that wearing a mask could confer general protection, along with explaining why.

The reason there can be conflicting arguments is due to faulty or incomplete reasoning. For example you could say "face masks leave 99% of the air passing through them unfiltered, therefore they can't possibly provide any protection against viruses - they let all the viruses in!" The problem here is that the argument itself is faulty. The facts weren't wrong, but the conclusion was wrong, because the facts given don't automatically imply the conclusion. A ton of assumptions are made, which remain unspoken: the assumption is made on how masks are supposed to work, the masks are then shown to not work that way, then the conclusion is given that because you disproved that one way, then masks can't possible work at all. It's like claiming that trees grow from eating the soil, then noting the amount of soil hasn't decreased, then saying as a conclusion that trees don't grow.

We just have to look at the study showing that mask users got 80% less cases of the flu to realize there must be a flaw in the argument. Maybe the mask users got less flu because their nasal passages were kept significantly warmer during the high-risk periods that they were outdoors, and it had nothing to do with filtering viruses.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2020, 08:43:17 am by Reelya »
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Folly

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: SARS Harder
« Reply #384 on: February 28, 2020, 09:21:59 am »

Or, you could follow the advice of the WHO, rather than come up with armchair reasons to do otherwise.

The World Health Organization got us into this mess! If we want to beat the Corona, we'll have to think for ourselves...
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ChairmanPoo

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: SARS Harder
« Reply #385 on: February 28, 2020, 09:29:25 am »

Or, you could follow the advice of the WHO, rather than come up with armchair reasons to do otherwise.

The World Health Organization got us into this mess! If we want to beat the Corona, we'll have to think for ourselves...
I prefer Belgian beer myself
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Zangi

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: SARS Harder
« Reply #386 on: February 28, 2020, 09:34:44 am »

Or, you could follow the advice of the WHO, rather than come up with armchair reasons to do otherwise.

The World Health Organization got us into this mess! If we want to beat the Corona, we'll have to think for ourselves...
My special bleach blend mix will protect you from the corona virus!  Just quaff 1 cup a day!  Buy now!
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martinuzz

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: SARS Harder
« Reply #387 on: February 28, 2020, 09:38:59 am »

I just a week time, stock markets have seen their profits over the past year evaporate.
The Dutch AEX has dropped back to the level it was at in march 2019.
Similar drops can be seen at stock markets in other countries.
Shareholders are licking their wounds, as the world wide virus panic strikes hard at economies.
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TamerVirus

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: SARS Harder
« Reply #388 on: February 28, 2020, 09:59:15 am »

Panic has taken hold in the stock market.
This week is poised to be the worst week since the 08 financial crisis.
Dow Jones is now down another 900+ points.
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Ulfarr

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: SARS-Cov-2: SARS Harder
« Reply #389 on: February 28, 2020, 10:02:50 am »

Question: supposing I were to be 'smart' and start discretely stocking up right now (in U.S.) what would be good things to buy to start hoarding right now.

Salt! Good to season your food, preserve your food or barter for food, stores rather well too. Alternatively if those reports about the stock market collapsing is anything to go by then stocking up on some good stocks now might turn some decent profits when things normalize.
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So the conclusion I'm getting here is that we use QSPs because dwarves can't pilot submarines.
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