FallacyofUrist:
The issue with this line of thinking is, what's the Mafia going to do about it? The info is out there, but its not like killing Superdorf will take that away, and roles don't mean anything towards alignment. The only solid bit of info that this gives towards alignment is there might be an SK because they're guaranteed a kill ability of some sort and there's three kill abilities. But that info helps the scumteam as much as it does everyone else. If Superdorf was a day cop than it would be more risky, because he'd have more concrete information to give. Do you actually think there's any evidence of Superdorf being Mafia, or are you just raising the possibility?
I believe there is a possibility Superdorf is in fact a mafia player. At the moment I consider it a
possibility and not yet a certainty. I'm case-building.
I believe you may be underestimating the usefulness of a census power, particularly a
double-list census power. With enough census information out there, combined with a massclaim... I can't see that going very well for the mafia. If Superdorf is town then in the longer run he is an immense threat to the mafia, especially once his ability is proven by someone dying matching his information.
The problem of course being that if you are town and you survive till the next day, you can census again and reveal even more information to town. With every death that occurs the likelihood of your role being confirmed or at least made more likely to be true increases as the death information may match your census information. Why would the mafia care if your death reveals the truth of your information when you're going to be releasing even more information over time? If you are a town player and being truthful you've made yourself an attractive target towards mafia, simply for the sake of cutting off your flow of information.
This is dumb. The information isn't, like, alignment inspects that the scum already know. Scum get just as much out of the expanded list as we do.
I've got a 1000x more important role. I can tell you that straight up. If scum shoot at Superdorf, they can't shoot at me. (Yes, scum, that's WIFOM. But only for you, so go get drunk in scumchat and leave it out of the thread if you don't want to be called out for it.) This is generalizable.
If you are not killed by Day 2, my suspicion would be either that you are mafia, you correctly planned for a town player to protect you, or the scum are leaving you alive as a risky gambit.
There's no risk to this gambit. What's the worst that's going to happen, scum kill someone that's close to a vanilla townie? That's the best case scenario for N1. Why does this worry you?
Let me present a hypothetical scenario. The census is much more useful than you may think. Particularly, this double-list census power that provides
two lists.
It is entirely possible that by Day 2 Superdorf will have assembled a complete list of every power in the game. From there, a massclaim can be forced, and anyone who doesn't 'add up' can be targeted. This is, I suspect, a
terrifying possibility to the scum.
1) Is casting doubt about one's townishness an anti-town move? If anything, it encourages others to observe me more carefully. Furthermore, why would I want to be read "truely", role and all? At this point of the game, only scum would benefit from knowing my role, since they could be sure that their read on that was correct.
2)As town, I don't see a problem with other townies subconsciously believing I'm town. In being open about not reading my PM, I also give others the chance to take it into account later. Surely, it'd be worse if I didn't tell you I wasn't reading it?
If I'm town, there's likely nothing in my PM that will help prove it, which is what town players care about. Scum players care about my specific role, which might shine through my posts unintentionally. D1 towniness comes from scumhunting and thread behaviour, not from mechanical information. There's also likely nothing in my PM that will help me scumhunt.
If I'm scum, I want to be deceptive anyway and giving a "true read" would be counterproductive. On the other hand, not coordinating with scumbuddies may lead to accidental buses etc., but that would be a perfect cover for the remaining scum, no?
How would you prefer I used the information in my PM? What is there to gain from it for me, and for the town as a whole?
To put it simply. Not reading your role PM is a scum move because it means anyone who reads you cannot get a true read on you. It makes any attempt to analyze your behavior useless until you actually read your role PM. Town benefit more from being able to read someone accurately, as the lynch can then be targeted on any detected scum. Therefore, not reading your role PM only hurts the town.
Now, lying and
claiming you didn't read your role PM seems a bit more likely. You're intelligent enough to see the foolishness of not reading your role PM, but lying about not reading it? As a scum player that would throw any read on you into doubt for Day 1. It encourages people to pay less attention to you, or at the very least any read that may be formed.
I would prefer you actually
read your role PM so people can read you accurately. That provides the most benefit for the town. And if you're not a town player, such a shame it is for you.
FOUIf you are not killed by Day 2, my suspicion would be either that you are mafia, you correctly planned for a town player to protect you, or the scum are leaving you alive as a risky gambit.
You've listed every possible reason for why Superdorf might survive the night here. Which would you think would be the most likely?
It'd be worth digging a bit deeper into all of those, I think.
I'm leaning towards the 'Superdorf is mafia' theory.
-This would allow scum to engineer the earlier massclaim strategy I mentioned,
to their benefit. Superdorf can be a mafia census player. Reveal partly true and partly false census information. Use the true stuff to prove his role. Hide the scum and sow confusion using the false information. It's the perfect tool for mass manipulation.
-And of course Superdorf wouldn't be worried about being nightkilled by his scum team.
-As has been mentioned, it's entirely possible Superdorf is being coached by his scum partner or mimicking others in an attempt to look town.
But in the interest of fairness let's look at the other options presented here.
The 'Superdorf was protected' theory.
-A town player, knowing how useful Superdorf's census ability is at the massclaim stage, choses to protect Superdorf with some flavor of protection ability. Something like 'everyone who targets Superdorf is randomized' or 'protect Superdorf from kills'. So on and so forth. This is
possible and should not be ignored, but what are the odds such an ability exists?
The 'scum are leaving Superdorf alive as a risky gambit' theory.
-They would have to have some hope that whatever role abilities they have up their sleeves can work around Superdorf's census. Which is possible, but as mentioned, risky.
I once vindicated you as obvtown by noting that you clearly weren't being coached, but this time it looks like someone is helping you. In this post and this post, you express uncertainty about your play, but then in the post quoted above, you suddenly show chutzpah. What changed?
I don't think 'coached' is the right term here. It looks more like Superdorf is mimicking town arguments in an attempt to look town.
~~~
In truth,
Superdorf looks more mafia-like than IcyTea does.
Why am I not voting him at present?
Because if he
is town then keeping him alive will be very beneficial. I want to be absolutely certain that he's mafia before any vote.
IcyTea meanwhile hasn't shown much value... nor has he scum-hunted to any significant degree, at present.