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Author Topic: Supply and Demand  (Read 6952 times)

Dozebôm Lolumzalěs

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Re: Supply and Demand
« Reply #30 on: November 01, 2018, 03:49:11 pm »

I never claimed that production costs directly affected price. They indirectly affect price by determining how cheaply the producer is willing to sell for.

I do not think the lack of microeconomy is a design choice. Current economic simulations in DF are makeshift, so they will have to make less sense in-universe to better approximate the wanted system of “things cost money” and “it’s harder to get more useful things”.
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SixOfSpades

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Re: Supply and Demand
« Reply #31 on: November 01, 2018, 04:07:35 pm »

I never claimed that production costs directly affected price. They indirectly affect price by determining how cheaply the producer is willing to sell for.
True. I never meant my post to be a correction of yours, merely an expansion. And obviously, yes, the current in-fort economy (or rather, total lack thereof) is only a placeholder.
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GoblinCookie

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Re: Supply and Demand
« Reply #32 on: November 03, 2018, 08:38:34 am »

No. Masterworks represent an investment of labor by a highly skilled dwarf as opposed to the same investment of labor by an unskilled dwarf. Skilled dwarves are rarer. Masterworks are subjectively more pleasing, and objectively superior in combat. This alone is sufficient to give masterworks a higher price.

As I said before, masterworks are higher in eliminative value, which means that if you want 10 chairs and you have an option between 10 ordinary chairs and 10 masterwork chairs, the ordinary chairs cannot be sold but there is no difference in the value of the masterwork chairs and what the ordinary chairs would be worth if they were around.  This however is not the kind of value that factors into prices, it is the kind of value that determines whether something can be sold at all. 

A highly skilled dwarf is objectively cheaper than the less skilled dwarf.  That is because he makes fewer mistakes and wastes fewer raw materials in producing things.  On his own a highly skilled dwarf might produce more value, but he reduces the average value of each item he is employed in making, which means he only produces more value if he is *more* skilled than the other dwarves in the world.  Increasing the total skill-base of the whole economy does nothing to increase the numerical value of the items produced.

It does however increase both the eliminative and binary values, which means people are certainly better off than they would be otherwise.  But the numerical values and therefore the prices of the items goes down, because as the more skilled dwarves produce more goods more quickly, the amount of labour that each item represents goes down.  The more skilled the labourers are therefore, the lower the prices ought to be but under the current system the reverse would be the case.

Value is not the same thing as price however.  Price is normally higher than value, this extra in effect a % of the total amount of surplus value produced by the society.  Surplus value is the difference between the value of the goods produced by each dwarf and the value of the goods that said dwarf consumes; at the moment this is a pretty large difference.  You can raise an item's price above it's value but only if there is surplus value leftover in society. 

     The time/labor costs of an item's production are largely irrelevant to a buyer, and should therefore have no impact on the item's price. Where they are relevant is on the artisan's desire to produce that item: Things that take a long time to make but give only a small return simply aren't worth the maker's time, so of course he chooses not to make them, which creates scarcity, which drives the price up, which makes the item worth making. But in DF, there are three things that break this natural equilibrium: 1) Dwarves don't make capitalisitic decisions in a communist society, 2) Dwarves have no qualms about doing non-cost-effective work, especially when there is often literally nothing else to do, and 3) Legendaries can and will do the same job in the blink of an eye, effectively making the entire concepts of "labor costs" and "competition" obsolete.

Suggested improvements:
     More realistic timeframes, for all products. No Mason, no matter how Legendary, should be able to whip out 15 stone weapon racks in an hour--just as no Cook, no matter how Dabbling, should take 3 days just to prepare some stew.
     Smaller speed increases as an artisan gains ranks in a skill . . . perhaps even none at all.
     Revamp the creation process into a multi-step one, rolling the "quality dice" each time. As the craftsdwarf completes an item, he compares: 1) The time he's taken on it so far, vs. the "average" time for that type of item, 2) The quality level of the item, vs. his own level of skill, 3) The quality level of the item, vs. the odds that any further work would be an improvement, and 4) The time required for further work, vs. his own needs for food/drink/sleep. IF the craftsdwarf is a) not too far behind schedule, b) unsatisfied with his work so far, c) fairly sure that he could do better, and d) not too distracted by physical needs, then he should try to fine-tune and/or salvage his work. Roll the quality dice again, and maybe he'll improve the item, maybe he'll make it worse, and maybe he'll screw up completely & wreck it beyond repair. So the main reason that Legendaries can do work so much faster than other artisans should be because they got it right the first time.

In what strange universe does the buyer solely determine the price of an item?  Prices are ultimately set by the seller, which means that in no sense can the costs to the seller be rationally ignored.  A seller will always try to avoid selling an item at a lower price than he acquired it for.  If you follow the chain of costs down to the bottom, what we end up with is the limited number of work-hours that the worker has. 

Your entire setup makes no attempt to establish the basis for the value of anything, it just takes the values of things a-priori to exist and then tries to control people's behavior according to these tautological item-values that somehow everyone both knows and have quantified prior to any actual economic activity. 

Then you say this.

True. I never meant my post to be a correction of yours, merely an expansion. And obviously, yes, the current in-fort economy (or rather, total lack thereof) is only a placeholder.

The situation where items have in-built values is also a placeholder surely? 
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thompson

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Re: Supply and Demand
« Reply #33 on: November 05, 2018, 02:20:19 pm »

The economy would be tricky to get right as you have a very small number of dwarves who can trade a very large number of different (radically different) types of items. Starting with a proper world economy would be best as you have a much larger population to deal with so balancing supply and demand would be easier.  Fortress values could be pegged to regional item values, with some corrections to allow for local surplus/shortages. Trade from the fortress could affect global item values by shifting supply and demand, but may not have a huge effect unless you really are churning out a ton of crutches or something.

So, get world economy and caravans working first (including caravans factoring in travel costs). Much easier problem to solve.

In the fortress, dwarves then weigh up their various purchase options according to their personal needs and preferences, and choose what is the best value proposition for them.

This would be a realistic economy so long as sites are not completely isolated. For isolated sites getting a realistic economy to work would be hard. Probably not worth the bother on the first pass.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2018, 02:27:36 pm by thompson »
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GoblinCookie

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Re: Supply and Demand
« Reply #34 on: November 06, 2018, 09:06:10 am »

The economy would be tricky to get right as you have a very small number of dwarves who can trade a very large number of different (radically different) types of items. Starting with a proper world economy would be best as you have a much larger population to deal with so balancing supply and demand would be easier.  Fortress values could be pegged to regional item values, with some corrections to allow for local surplus/shortages. Trade from the fortress could affect global item values by shifting supply and demand, but may not have a huge effect unless you really are churning out a ton of crutches or something.

So, get world economy and caravans working first (including caravans factoring in travel costs). Much easier problem to solve.

In the fortress, dwarves then weigh up their various purchase options according to their personal needs and preferences, and choose what is the best value proposition for them.

One elements of a realistic economy is to radically reduce the number of types of items that you can in fact trade.  Buyers should only buy up to a certain quantity AND they should demand a minimum quality.  Travel costs are negligible because of the messed up way time works. 

This would be a realistic economy so long as sites are not completely isolated. For isolated sites getting a realistic economy to work would be hard. Probably not worth the bother on the first pass.

Wouldn't isolated sites just have their own internal economy that is isolated from the rest of the world? 
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Shonai_Dweller

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Re: Supply and Demand
« Reply #35 on: November 06, 2018, 04:34:29 pm »

Completely isolated sites don't really exist yet. I suppose they might someday, but the entire simulation is geared towards connecting sites right now, probably not worth thinking about what a single-site independent economy would look like until it becomes a thing. Probably be something that doesn't need an internal economy anyway like a single isolated night-troll lair.
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GoblinCookie

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Re: Supply and Demand
« Reply #36 on: November 08, 2018, 07:05:12 am »

Completely isolated sites don't really exist yet. I suppose they might someday, but the entire simulation is geared towards connecting sites right now, probably not worth thinking about what a single-site independent economy would look like until it becomes a thing. Probably be something that doesn't need an internal economy anyway like a single isolated night-troll lair.

Does said night troll eat things, or want things of any kind?  If that is the case we have to model how the night troll is going about getting those things and therefore it part of the economy arc. 
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Shonai_Dweller

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Re: Supply and Demand
« Reply #37 on: November 08, 2018, 03:32:18 pm »

Completely isolated sites don't really exist yet. I suppose they might someday, but the entire simulation is geared towards connecting sites right now, probably not worth thinking about what a single-site independent economy would look like until it becomes a thing. Probably be something that doesn't need an internal economy anyway like a single isolated night-troll lair.

Does said night troll eat things, or want things of any kind?  If that is the case we have to model how the night troll is going about getting those things and therefore it part of the economy arc.
Yes. So, as I said. The single site isolated economy isn't something that's conceivably ever going to be a thing. Troll leaves it's lair to get food / converts.
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thompson

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Re: Supply and Demand
« Reply #38 on: November 10, 2018, 07:32:15 am »

The reason you want to avoid treating sites as isolated is that it would be very difficult to match supply and demand AND allow players anywhere near the current level of control over site management. So, df either becomes first and foremost an economic simulation game, or you link the site economy to a more abstract world economy you can fudge and let players enjoy the game. This is a game design problem more so than anything else. Most people won't mind if the economy isn't realistic so long as it is dynamic and responds to their actions in a semi-reasonable way. They will mind if it requires extensive micromanagement, cripples player agency, or eats FPS. My 2c.

Edit: Travel costs are important as they allow for price differentiation across different regions. It would also favour trade along rivers where such costs are lower, etc. All good things.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2018, 07:38:15 am by thompson »
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anewaname

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Re: Supply and Demand
« Reply #39 on: November 10, 2018, 02:39:09 pm »

If you were to say that a lair is a type of "site" and to assign the night trolls to a "group", then you could include a night troll lair into a trade system.

Generally, a "site" is a location where trades may be made, and that "site" is owned by a "group". Each "citizen" in a "group" contributes to the "group"s ethics and beliefs, and those ethics and beliefs would govern the potential for trade between this "group" and another "group". If both "group"s are part of "civ"s, then more factors would be involved.

The trade could be of items, or knowledge, or any of the more physical options (Terror, Vengeance, Petty Annoyance, Death, as goblin and kobold civs trade with dwarfs).

So, a lair with a single night troll would be interested in trading with a local dwarf fortress, but the compared ethics and beliefs would limit the trade offerings to Terror or Petty Annoyance (the kidnapping of citizens). If an overseer of a fort managed to find a night troll lair on the map and sent a trade diplomat to the lair, the night troll "group" would likely attack or flee (moving the lair to a new hidden location).

Once you have two "group"s that are willing to trade something other than violence, then you can consider "supply and demand" between the two "group"s.
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GoblinCookie

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Re: Supply and Demand
« Reply #40 on: November 11, 2018, 09:49:13 am »

Yes. So, as I said. The single site isolated economy isn't something that's conceivably ever going to be a thing. Troll leaves it's lair to get food / converts.

Which as far as the game mechanics are concerned is the same mechanically to the economy of larger sites.  The economy applies as long as the night troll inhabiting the site needs to eat stuff and decides what to eat from the available resources in their environment.  There is also the economic decision making in the sense of is it easier/less risky to go and eat the children of the nearby village against how easy/risky it is just to gather wild carrots.  If the local village is sufficiently well-defended then the economic decision making may shift in favour of carrots.

This is not very different from a site really, except that a site would normally have a high weighting against the eating of children while the night troll is entirely 'rational' as to their nutritional value.  ;)

The reason you want to avoid treating sites as isolated is that it would be very difficult to match supply and demand AND allow players anywhere near the current level of control over site management. So, df either becomes first and foremost an economic simulation game, or you link the site economy to a more abstract world economy you can fudge and let players enjoy the game. This is a game design problem more so than anything else. Most people won't mind if the economy isn't realistic so long as it is dynamic and responds to their actions in a semi-reasonable way. They will mind if it requires extensive micromanagement, cripples player agency, or eats FPS. My 2c.

Edit: Travel costs are important as they allow for price differentiation across different regions. It would also favour trade along rivers where such costs are lower, etc. All good things.

The player's site does not need the economy.  The player is an economic 'script' in themselves in that they already have an economic logic all their own by which they play the game.  The point of having the economy is so that other entities, whether they are other sites, independent adventurer-like groups or subordinate parties within the player's own site can make their own economic decisions properly.  At the moment the economy exists during world-gen but freezes upon it's completion for some reason probably related to the increased amount of information. 
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Rubik

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Re: Supply and Demand
« Reply #41 on: January 15, 2019, 09:49:58 pm »

so yeah, pirates, am I right?

How's that gonna get done? there are sea monsters in DF right now that can mess you up if you go there, right?
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