Since participating in this thread, I've started a new 44.12 fort. My last fort was an established fort from 44.09, and it's falling into depression after updating to 44.12. I wanted to try starting fresh in 44.12, armed with the knowledge from this thread, to make a better evaluation for myself.
It's an above-ground fort so all my dwarves have a lot of exposure to the elements.
I had some !FUN! in the first year with woodcutting accidents, bugged boulders, and wildlife, which meant that there was plenty of injuries and deaths for some of the dwarves to witness. The worst tragedy, of course, was my only surviving miner suddenly becoming a queen.
I'm currently 3 years, 8 months in, with a population of 81, of which maybe ten are recent migrants, and 7 are human residents.
There has been NO MICROMANAGING for stress. I've just run the fort, getting stuff done, letting stress do what it will.
The result? Out of 81 residents, all but three are neutral or negative stress. It's a happy fort.
Out of those three residents, let's take a closer look --
Broker, 3200 stress - He got rained on enough that it changed his personality. Now he is inclined to depression. Also, he detests mussels. My refuse pile is full of mussel shells. I'm going to keep an eye on him and see if I can meet some unmet needs.
Bookkeeper, 6362 stress - "Be merry!" This is my most stressed dwarf. But he has a pretty complicated personality. Being caught in the rain changed his personality, but it made him accepting and more slow to anger. He may be the most stressed, but his stress has stabilized over the last year and hasn't got any worse.
Papermaker, 1422 stress - "Everything's good" He's not a lot stressed, but he doesn't like the rain much. Also, he often feels dicrouraged and "is not the type to fall in love, or even to develop positive feelings." So I think he's probably prone to it. We'll have to see where this leads.
The main thing I have done in this fortress is have a small crappy tavern. 4x7 wood building, no tables or chairs. Dwarves go in there and socialize, or watch performances. I think this has made a stupidly big difference.
So... maybe stress isn't as broken as I thought? My updated 44.09 fort made stress seem VERY broken. This fort makes it seem workable. I'm going to keep going and see if these three dwarves are joined by new migrants in the stress zone, and if the stressed ones keep the downward slide. Right now, the jury is out...