So I've read this whole thread, and it's a fascinating and helpful read.
And I have to say that stress is (IMHO) definitely broken still in 44.12.
I have a fortress that I started in 44.09. It's the first time I've started in a (nearly) dead civ, and it's the first time I've gotten serious about a steel industry (outside of goblinite). And I have my fortress trucking along for a few years, and the fort is well-established. I've been playing off-and-on since 34.something, and it's in my DF DNA to prevent bad thoughts. So there's a temple with individual sub-temples, tavern, library, 3x3 individual rooms that have been smoothed, lavish meals being churned out, plenty of booze. And of course it's 44.09 so everyone is happy as a clam.
But then memories and emotions! I was excited about that. I wanted to peek in on the internal lives of my dwarves as they each live out their own little stories. Fortunately, I decided to wait on 44.10 to see how it would go. Passed on that. So when the LNP came out for 44.12, I went ahead and upgraded my fortress...
And now it's a slow slide into depression. A large chunk of my dwarves have turned into milllennials. They seem to have no place in their heads for the vaguest idea that the world they have born into is capable of dark capricious randomly dished out violence and horror, and instead they have to take a personal mental health self-care day because the smoothie stand was out of wheatgrass. Literally, there isn't a single civilized site in my world except for my fortress (oops, set the number of mega-beasts too high in world gen) , but none of these migrants coming in seem to comprehend how lucky they are to just have a raised bridge between themselves and the rest of the savagery.
I think it's natural (even inevitable) that fortress created in 44.09 is going to fail in 44.12. There was just no way to foresee the need for this much stress micro. Barring any great change between now and the Myth/Magic update, pre-44.10, I think, will be seen as the golden age of DF mega-projects. Does anyone really think Archcrystal would have been possible in 44.12? In that sense, 44.10+ is save breaking if you don't have an emotional support infrastructure built into your fortress.
A fair comparison to make here is 34.xx when I started playing. I lost
a lot of fortresses to tantrum spirals. Was that better or worse than 44.12? Well, in some sense, you could tick the boxes of basic dwarf care and you were mostly good. Game-wise, it acted as a pretty good motivator to provide for your dwarves, to give them a proper dwarfy life. And it inspired dwarfy strategies for dealing with it (dwarven daycare FTW!). And there was a beautiful awful epicness to a proper tantrum spiral. It was decent way to lose.
Compare that to 44.12. Do any of the strategies oulined in this thread feel dwarfy? Does anyone think it likely that a player will invent a crazy magma-powered cat repeater that keeps dwarves from getting rained on? As it stands, it feels like this issue is decreasing player creativity instead of encouraging it.
And my biggest worry is that this won't get resolved before the Big Wait. Ideally, all the new content Toady is adding to the game would slowly increase the player base as we create more and more cool stories to share while we have a single stable version of DF to play with. But if the Big Wait leaves us with a DF that has a steeper learning curve, with more restrictions on play style, then the player base could hemorrage instead of building, and that would suck. In fact, it could end up looking like a 44.12 fortress with a bunch of depressed players losing the will to play