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[NUKE9.13]

Hmm. By the way, Andrea did the maths- assuming a base project duration of 50, 2/5/2 and 3/4/2 would (on average) require the same amount of progress to complete after initial progress rolls. The advantage of 3/4/2 is a lower risk of overflow, better results if the base duration is >50, and a lower chance of a terrible time roll (although on average it all works out the same, we don't have the luxury of running this project 100 times, so it's better to take the less risky option).

[Madman198237]

Dominating the skies will not and cannot change the simple fact that our ground troops suck.

If we fix our ground troops, this will be over by Wreth-mas fairly soon. It's not like simple equipment (black powder or even crystal grenades plus a sling to throw them with, or lightweight not-aether-silk cloth armor, or better crystal weapons) is going to be expensive or time-consuming unless we roll very poorly.

[NUKE9.13]

I mean, you say that, but the report says we came out ahead in ground combat this turn, and can expect to do better next turn if they fail to reinforce with more grenades. Our ground troops aren't shit, yes, but they're just good enough to capture BS... if we can keep Kasgyr from freely dropping reinforcements and blocking ours.
Which we can't. Their PL has a considerably higher output than ours; we can hold the airspace for a few turns, but eventually attrition will favour them. If we haven't captured BS by then, we will have to retreat.
The Stormprince is the definitive answer to air power. Yes, we will need to improve our ground troops as well at some point, but air power matters a lot, and currently they are slated to be at a big advantage in that department.

[johiah]

Some fairly easy improvements to ground troops would be:
1. Put a MOVE PLACE onto a metal chassis with a sideways lift crystals, some wheels, and some steering. Boom. Instant mobile grenade defense.
2. Make a wide angle weapons crystal for personnel, or as a cannon, that can fire a fairly weak shot at a wide dispersion, to trigger grenades in midair, away from our lines.
3. Better armor for our troops.
4. Better tactics. (I.E. Dodging for cover, facing away from incoming grenades while lying on the ground.)

At least as far as real life frag grenades goes, if you are 10 feet away from the grenade, on the ground, and facing away, the chance to get hit is something like 1 out of every 64 grenades.

[10ebbor10]

Grand Wrethian Shipyard (3):
 - 3,4,2(3): Andrea, NUKE9.13, 10ebbor10
 - 2,5,2(2): Milo, Tack

I''m convinced by Andrea's math.

[milo christiansen]

Grand Wrethian Shipyard (3):
 - 3,4,2(4): Andrea, NUKE9.13, 10ebbor10, Milo
 - 2,5,2(1): Tack

Hmm... I thought it was the other way? Maybe I misread?

[johiah]

Grand Wrethian Shipyard (6):
 - 3,4,2(5): Andrea, NUKE9.13, 10ebbor10, Milo, Johiah
 - 2,5,2(1): Tack

[Tack]

Grand Wrethian Shipyard (6):
 - 3,4,2(5): Andrea, NUKE9.13, 10ebbor10, Milo, Johiah, Tack

I also like number truths.
Seems we're unanimut.

[10ebbor10]

Grand Wrethian Shipyard (6):
 - 3,4,2(5): Andrea, NUKE9.13, Milo, Johiah, Tack
 - 2+1 die spider sacrifice,4,2(1) : 10ebbor10

https://anydice.com/program/10f66

Spider sacrifice of dice is mathematically strictly superior to using 3 dice on 1 thing.

[andrea]

Grand Wrethian Shipyard (6):
 - 3,4,2(4):NUKE9.13, Milo, Johiah, Tack
 - 2+1 die spider sacrifice,4,2(2) : 10ebbor10 , Andrea

Yes, misremembered how the spider worked.

[Madman198237]

At least as far as real life frag grenades goes, if you are 10 feet away from the grenade, on the ground, and facing away, the chance to get hit is something like 1 out of every 64 grenades.

With fragments, MAYBE, but I'm pretty sure that that is wrong regardless. The blast wave, however, from a standard US frag grenade is, IIRC, still absolutely deadly at that range. And that's not even considering the fact that the Kasgyrite grenade is kind of like a thermobaric or super-incendiary grenade in that it heats the air enough to be deadly in a small area. And it's a HE sort of grenade, not fragmentation, which means the blast wave is worse than a frag grenade, etc.

I mean, you say that, but the report says we came out ahead in ground combat this turn, and can expect to do better next turn if they fail to reinforce with more grenades. Our ground troops aren't shit, yes, but they're just good enough to capture BS... if we can keep Kasgyr from freely dropping reinforcements and blocking ours.
Which we can't. Their PL has a considerably higher output than ours; we can hold the airspace for a few turns, but eventually attrition will favour them. If we haven't captured BS by then, we will have to retreat.
The Stormprince is the definitive answer to air power. Yes, we will need to improve our ground troops as well at some point, but air power matters a lot, and currently they are slated to be at a big advantage in that department.

We came out ahead because they didn't bring enough weapons at all. We're outnumbered hideously and when fighting Kasgyrites with equal weapons we lose every time.

Has anyone done calculations for their PL's output? I missed them if they've been done and can't recall enough about this game because it's been so long....

[NUKE9.13]

Grand Wrethian Shipyard (6):
 - 3,4,2 (3): Milo, Johiah, Tack
 - 2+1 die spider sacrifice,4,2 (3) : 10ebbor10 , Andrea, NUKE9.13

[10ebbor10]

Has anyone done calculations for their PL's output? I missed them if they've been done and can't recall enough about this game because it's been so long....

What PL?

The Skiff PL is producing either 2 or 1 Skiff per turn. I have reason to suspect 1, but am not certain.

Their big PL has operated for 1 turn. We know they had 2 Kunai at the start, and they attacked with 5. So, 3/turn unless they got that Kunai from somewhere.

[johiah]

Grand Wrethian Shipyard (6):
 - 3,4,2 (2): Milo, Tack
 - 2+1 die spider sacrifice,4,2 (4) : 10ebbor10 , Andrea, NUKE9.13, Johiah

[Madman198237]

It is incredibly unlikely that they managed to acquire a 3-per-turn Kunai production line given how hard it would be (basically impossible, yeah?) for us despite our careful setup and plentiful resources and upgrades.

It is entirely possible that they had a Kunai hidden away and produced a new one not using the PL as well as one from the PL, or that they had two hidden away plus the PL ship, etc.