To make sure I understand the graph: the width of the event horizon line on the graph at any given height is the maximum distance a body can be from Earth, at that time, without being so far away that light emitted from the body at that time will never reach Earth, right?
Yes.
Today's horizon distance is approx. 16.5 Gly. This means that a galaxy today at the distance of 17 Gly is already beyond the horizon, and will not ever be able to send us any signals, or vice versa.
Why is this different from the Hubble sphere? How do we know that it is 16.5?
The Hubble sphere is the present-day distance where the recession velocities reach 1 c. Numerically, is the inverse of the Hubble constant.
It would be equivalent to the event horizon, if we were living in a universe in which the Hubble constant does not decrease with time - i.e. in a universe with no matter or radiation, and solely with dark energy, or in a universe in which matter and radiation have diluted sufficiently to make it functionally equivalent.
Since we're living in a relatively young universe, in which H is still significantly decreasing due to the self attraction of its contents, it results in the Hubble sphere growing. This means that light emitted today at the Hubble radius will have 0 net velocity towards us, effectively hovering at a constant distance. But tomorrow, when H will have decreased ever so slightly, that light will find itself on our side of the Hubble sphere, and will be able to start approaching us.
That's why the Hubble sphere does not mark the event horizon - you can observe signals emitted from beyond it, as long as the emission wasn't too far away (within the actual event horizon).
The distance to the event horizon is determined by the composition of the energy density of the universe - for it to exist at all, the universe must have some dark energy content. Otherwise we could just wait sufficiently long and observe any signal we want, as recession velocities of any galaxy would never increase.
However, later on, when the horizon will have receded to 17.5 Gly, some other galaxy which will then find itself at 17 Gly will be able to send a signal that will eventually reach us.
That galaxy which someday will be at 17 was previously nearer than 16.5, right?
Yes. Otherwise it would have already been beyond the event horizon, and as such - by definition - would never be able to communicate its current state, no matter how long we waited.
Note that this will be a different galaxy. By the time the horizon recedes to 17.5 Gly, the galaxy today at 17 Gly will have been carried away by the expansion, and the galaxy that will then find itself at 17 Gly will be a galaxy which today is much closer.
Expansion of space, right? That's related to the increasing scale-factor on the right side of the chart?
Yes, these galaxies are carried away by the expansion of the universe.
On those same graphs you can see dotted lines marked with present-day redshifts (1, 10, 1000). This can be thought of as illustrating some test galaxies moving with the Hubble flow.
As you can see, these galaxies are constantly leaving the event horizon (their paths flare out with time). So, as time progresses, there are less and less galaxies whose signals sent TODAY can ever reach us.
And yet, this does not mean that the event horizon is approaching - it will always be moving measurably further and further away (asymptotically approaching 17.5 Gly).
Wait, the event horizon will be asymptotically approaching 17.5 Gly? That's the furthest it'll ever be? Why?
That's the distance at which in a universe with no matter or radiation, which has only dark energy in it, the recession velocities reach c. I.e., it's coincident with the Hubble sphere in such a universe. But in this universe, the rate of expansion (another name for the Hubble constant) does not decrease, and the resulting expansion is exponential.
A hypothetical light beam emitted at the Hubble sphere in this universe will always hover in place, never making any headway towards the observer, since for every light-second it travels, the dark energy expands the remaining distance by one light-second.
Our universe gets diluted with passing time - matter and radiation are progressively less able to retard expansion. On the other hand, dark energy remains constant (as fas as we can see) over time, so given enough waiting it will completely dominate the expansion, and the Hubble sphere in infinite future will coincide with the event horizon - whose distance is dependent on how much DE pushes the universe apart.
For it to grow beyond that, the dark energy would have to not be constant. If it were growing, that horizon would decrease without limit (leading to big rip). If it were decreasing, the horizon would always recede.
This apparent incongruity, between galaxies leaving the horizon and the horizon receding, comes about as a result of the fact that when we're talking about signals being sent from galaxies, we're talking about light, which has nett velocity towards us, so it doesn't move with the Hubble flow like galaxies do.
But why is the horizon even receding?
Because matter and energy are less and less capable of keeping dark energy from doing what it wants - i.e. expanding space exponentially, with some constant percentage rate per unit time.
At present, the furthest distance we can see is about 13.7 billion ly
There is no sense in which that distance is equivalent to light travel distance.
Here are the few distances that do make sense to talk about:
46 Gly is the present-day distance to where the regions that emitted CMBR are now (what is normally referred to as observable universe).
44 Mly was the distance to these same regions when they emitted CMBR.
~5 Gly is the farthest any of today-visible galaxies was at the time of emission of the light we receive.
Yes. Things outside the nearby region of space are too far away to ever interact with because the space they're in is moving away from us faster than the speed of light and so they will never be able to interact with us.
The Hubble sphere appears to be equivalent to said horizon, since both are affecting the same thing, if I'm not mistaken.
No, this isn't correct. Hubble sphere and event horizon are not equivalent. See the rest of this post. Or better yet, look at the graphs linked to earlier.
edit: I've got work to do. Be back later.