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[LordBaal]

Crap... thankfully no one died and no kids were harmed... this time. War, horrible war, swallows lives and dreams, for the ambitions of a few pricks...

[The_Explorer]

I doubt anything will happen till the 21st at the very least. Russia won't want to undermine china's olympics, since the two of them...aren't like buddies where they'll go down to the bar and have a drink. But more like allies due to "enemy of my enemy" and all. Since they both perceive the west to be a threat. Thats how I view their pseudo-alliance, though their relations seem stronger over time and their trade relations are definitely really good between the two.

I still think china will move onto taiwan at roughly the same time russia moves into ukraine.

Though AU news pointed out a good sign of imminent invasion. If china abandons their embassy in ukraine...THEN YOU KNOW

[Starver]

The Russia/Belarus joint exercises were due to end on the 20th. So what happens then with the north-of-Ukraine units (either no movement, overly tardy stand-down or even hasty movement over to the east of Ukraine and/or Crimea) might be a bellweather for the exact future expectations by Russia.

There are several interesting satellite images out there. Not sure how typical they are of 'typical exercise infrastructures' but there seems to be concern that various field hospitals, excavated firebases, river-spanning pontoons, massed ranks of helicopters/mobile artilliery/etc are just a little bit... numerous... to be just local exercises. Even combined-forces training. And that they're being conducted on three sides of Ukraine, including with units shipped in from eastern Siberia, seems deliberate.

If we're lucky, it's a deliberate message only. "We could, you know..." I find it hard to believe it's telegraphing actual intentions (even under the 'guise' of perfectly-normal-exercises-nothing-to-see-here) when there are so many other things that they could do/could be doing to fly under the almost omniscient 'radar' of the modern orbitally-serveilled and social-media-recorded world. The current Judo-Chessmaster in charge is surely not showing such a plain and open hand.

(If this is the distraction, though, then who knows what is the true intent? The modern-day Red Storm Rising scenario is going to be complicated, and have far more complicated reasoning behind it than a non-existent lack of fuel oils.)


The next thing that worries me is the clear calls that there may be a False Flag attack upon/by the Russian side, to spark things off. But mostly because what better cover for an actual false-False Flag by 'us'. Not that I think Ukraine/whoever is likely to try, but such a spark could ignite things just as easily no matter what the source, or intent. There's already raised interaction over the disputed areas of Ukraine (excepting fait-acomplis Crimea), as noted, possibly due to the increased tensions, suspicions and/or aspirations.

[nenjin]

Furthermore, all it takes is one commander in charge of armed forces (be that Russian, Ukrainian, US or Russian separatist) deciding to open fire that can touch off a conflict, even if neither side politically was willing to go there yet.

Armed conflict in Eastern Ukraine is spiking, with artillery fire at numerous places of the 450km frontline. One artillery shell hit a Ukrainian kindergarten, 2 teachers were wounded.

Both sides are accusing each other of shooting first.
Western countries have been warning for a while now that Russia might create a false flag casus belli like this.

Basically this. The first casualty in war is truth. Once the fog of war descends, everyone starts operating in terms of survival rather than maintaining the peace.

[delphonso]

The media here is very much 'There will be no large wars in Eastern Europe', and are pushing a narrative that the US wants a little war with Russia, while Russia is a sort of hapless, bankrupted victim in all this. Doesn't sit well with me, but is also very much 'there'll be no conflict and we don't want to be involved.'

[wierd]

Denial aint just a river in Egypt.

Putin has been harping about missiles and NATO presence for at least 5 years, out of the mans own lips.


The thing to point out-- Has the US, or the NATO powers, ever once fired a missile into Russia in that time?  No. It never did.

Putin asserts that the US and NATO have "ignored" Russia's security concerns. He's been saying it for months even. (But wait there's more!) (And EVEN MOAR!) What is Russia concerned about? The missile attacks that never happened, and would be politically suicidal to make happen unprovoked?

No.  The "Concerns" of Russia are just paranoid posturing at their most base level, and at the most malign, merely a mask worn-- a facade to cover his blind and naked ambition to reclaim the former soviet bloc countries For Mother Russia.

Do not fall for his bullshit.  Call him out on it-- Yes, the US and NATO have not capitulated to a nonsense demand, and have not capitulated to a nonsense demand for nearly a decade now.  why? Because it is, was, and ever shall be a nonsense demand.

Putin needs to shut the fuck up, and withdraw his troops, and save what little dignity Russia has, while he still can.  Nobody's buying his bullshit.

[LordBaal]

Exactlly that! A NATO contry in his borders, ohhh, ohhh, the Warsaw pact will be very angry... oh wait they don't exist anymore...

Is NATO going to invade Russia for... what for??? While very much dependant on fossil fuels still Europe is trying hard to switch for alternative energies and has been making huge laps towards that. They have the tech and skill.

All this crap also comes from an attempt to strangle gas to Europe and have them by the balls a bit more, for the moneiz.

[martinuzz]

Denial aint just a river in Egypt.

Putin has been harping about missiles and NATO presence for at least 5 years, out of the mans own lips.


The thing to point out-- Has the US, or the NATO powers, ever once fired a missile into Russia in that time?  No. It never did.

Putin asserts that the US and NATO have "ignored" Russia's security concerns. He's been saying it for months even. (But wait there's more!) (And EVEN MOAR!) What is Russia concerned about? The missile attacks that never happened, and would be politically suicidal to make happen unprovoked?

No.  The "Concerns" of Russia are just paranoid posturing at their most base level, and at the most malign, merely a mask worn-- a facade to cover his blind and naked ambition to reclaim the former soviet bloc countries For Mother Russia.

Do not fall for his bullshit.  Call him out on it-- Yes, the US and NATO have not capitulated to a nonsense demand, and have not capitulated to a nonsense demand for nearly a decade now.  why? Because it is, was, and ever shall be a nonsense demand.

Putin needs to shut the fuck up, and withdraw his troops, and save what little dignity Russia has, while he still can.  Nobody's buying his bullshit.

Yes, well said.

The media here ... are pushing a narrative that the US wants a little war with Russia, while Russia is a sort of hapless, bankrupted victim in all this.

It is terrifying that Chinese media are copypasting Putins lies and feeding it to their population.

[martinuzz]

Biden just said that he is now certain that Putin has decided to invade Ukraine.
New intel suggests that 40-50% of the 150 thousand Russian troops that have been positioned surrounding Ukraine are ready for immediate deployment, which is a much larger number than was previously assumed, according to the US ministry of Defense.

Biden says he still believes in a diplomatic solution.

The White House reports that Ukrainian banks have been the target of massive scale Russian cyberattacks.

Russian state media report that an international oil pipeline in Loegansk (seperatist city) has exploded, with Twitter pictures of a huge fireball. Another explosion has been reported in Loegansk, less than an hour after the first. There are no reported injuries.

The Droezjba pipeline is an important oil pipeline, connecting Russia to various places in eastern and central Europe.
Loegansk is considered an important city for the Russian-backed seperatists. The past 2 days are rumoured to have seen heavier fighting than has been seen in a long time.

This could well be a false flag. Russia using 'Ukraine blew up our important oil pipeline' as a casus belli doesn't seem beyond Putin's shenanigans.


Earlier today, Russia demanded that NATO contries stop delivering weapons to Ukraine.
Somewhere around the same time today, our parliament approved weapons deliveries to Ukraine.

https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/biden-poetin-heeft-besloten-oekraine-binnen-te-vallen~b5b033dc/

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/18/world/russia-ukraine-biden-putin

[Lord Shonus]

Is NATO going to invade Russia for... what for??? While very much dependant on fossil fuels still Europe is trying hard to switch for alternative energies and has been making huge laps towards that. They have the tech and skill.

That's part of Putin's problem. European (especially German) depemdence on Russian energy supplies has been a massively power ful diplomatic stick over the past 15 yeara, particularly with so many nuke plants beimg shut down. Moving away from that dependence is so ething Russia views as a threat.

[Starver]

As I nearly said when I previously mentioned the book, it's almost a reverse of the spark for the plot of Red Storm Rising[1]. Though the meshed meme of the shelling of the kindergarten of our reality and the public 'reason'[2] for that novel's conflict is frightningly close. Seemingly less competently done, but it definitely looks scarily similar.

[1] The Soviet Union lost most of its homegrown oilfield capacity, wanted to make a play for the Middle East, but that first requires a surprise (conventional) first-strike against NATO in Europe/keeping the US on the back foot in order to keep them from arguing the toss... Though the means seem to become the ends, or at least it doesn't go quite all their own way. In our reality, they instead have an embaressment of hydrocarbon riches and potentially no customers willing to buy it all.

[2] A troop of Young Pioneers, on a tour of the Kremlin, get killed during a 'failed' assasination plot against the Russian leadership. With every (planted) indication being that it was East Germany that was the aggressor.

[martinuzz]

Judge Amit Metha ruled that Trump cannot claim presidential immunity for his role in the storming of the capitol, and can be prosecuted for it.

[wierd]

More on the "Totally not a false-flag operation comrade, Is totally Ukrainian aggression!" front----

Seems the morons forgot to remove the EXIF metadata from their videos before uploading them.  Turns out the evacuation footage? Filmed 2-3 days ago.  Amazing.

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1494738811749867525

Putin's Russia is about as big of a clown-car as Trump's Whitehouse, it seems.

[martinuzz]

Never thought I'd say these words, but it is far worse than Trump's Whitehouse.
A scary number of Russians actually believe that the West is the new Hitler that is genociding ethnic Russians in Ukraine.
Or at least they believe that we are the agressor, and poor Russia is the innocent victim.

[hector13]

The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good people to do nothing strong PR.