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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 4455100 times)

Frumple

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #47595 on: February 15, 2022, 06:34:15 pm »

Eh... modern war, maybe, but world? Who exactly is going to jump in on Russia's side, here? They're not exactly a top tier power anymore, nor do they have a bunch of allies that'd be willing to throw in on something like that.
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MrRoboto75

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #47596 on: February 15, 2022, 07:10:35 pm »

I could see China watching for a justification to take Taiwan while Russia goes for Ukraine
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JoshuaFH

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #47597 on: February 15, 2022, 07:36:59 pm »

You know, why do those respective countries want to seize those respective other countries again?
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Dunamisdeos

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #47598 on: February 15, 2022, 09:08:49 pm »

China sees Taiwan as secessionist, IIRC
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Random_Dragon

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #47599 on: February 15, 2022, 09:13:47 pm »

Eh... modern war, maybe, but world? Who exactly is going to jump in on Russia's side, here? They're not exactly a top tier power anymore, nor do they have a bunch of allies that'd be willing to throw in on something like that.

Belarus seems to be up to some shenanigans as well, from what others have reposted elsewhere.
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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #47600 on: February 15, 2022, 10:02:25 pm »

Eh... modern war, maybe, but world? Who exactly is going to jump in on Russia's side, here? They're not exactly a top tier power anymore, nor do they have a bunch of allies that'd be willing to throw in on something like that.

Belarus seems to be up to some shenanigans as well, from what others have reposted elsewhere.

Putin has got a few of the former Soviet states run by strongman allies, one of which is Belarus, so it is unsurprising that this is the case.

I believe the excuse (or one of them, anyway) for the Russian troop build-up on the border was war games or some kind of military exercise with Belarus.
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nenjin

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #47601 on: February 15, 2022, 10:12:58 pm »

Russia will "intervene" to "protect" Russian separatists.
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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #47602 on: February 15, 2022, 11:51:39 pm »

Nawwww! The "For the Ethnic Russians!" Canard? Russia?! Noooo! Cant be!

/S
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Lord Shonus

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #47603 on: February 15, 2022, 11:52:59 pm »

You know, why do those respective countries want to seize those respective other countries again?

Russia views the former Soviet territories as her own backyard and still her rightful realm. The fact that so many of the smaller Baltic states jumped to NATO is galling, as is the Czech "everybody arm yourselves to the teeth in case they come back" response, but Ukraine is big enough andmimportant enough to dwarf thise in prestiege.

Making matters worse, if Ukraine were to join the EU and get the anti-corruption support other states have, the potential renassaince would shine a harsh light on Russia's economic failures.

Worst of all, statistics suggest that COVID has hit Russia far heavier than anybody is admitting, eroding government support to dangerous levels. Which is not helped by a lot of the conspiracy crap that Russia has been spewing in NATO countries coming home to roost.

In the other side of things, Putin seems tomhave been convinced that Biden is too weak to offer more than a token protest, or else that partisanship has grown so bad that Biden would be neutralized. Meanwhike Germany's increasingky dependent on Russia. gas for energy production, and the combination is probabky enough to cripple any NATO respomse.

Put it all together, and a Short Victorious War starts to look mighty tempting. Unfortunately for Russia, the percoeved weakness in the West is increasingly looking like a pipe dream. Top of the line weapoms are flowing into Ukraine in carload lots, amd the economic sanctiins being proposed as retaliation for any invasion are on par with those visited on North Korea.


Thisnis why the invasion has been in limbo. Showing weakmess by backing down risks disaster. Going forward risks disaster. Staying too long risks dosaster. Russia has blundered into a minefield, amd doesn't know how to get out.
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JoshuaFH

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #47604 on: February 16, 2022, 07:31:44 am »

I appreciate the response Lord Shonus, but is everything OK? That's an enormous number of typos in that post, which is uncharacteristic for you. You might just be a little tipsy, who knows :P

I suppose the question underneath my question would be: given the advances made in Globalism, and in the international corporation, the idea of an old, 1900's-style landgrab seems pretty passe. I would think that that kind of forceful expansion of one's country would not only not be necessary, but actually kind of harmful in the short and long terms.
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Starver

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #47605 on: February 16, 2022, 09:02:16 am »

I appreciate the response Lord Shonus, but is everything OK? That's an enormous number of typos in that post, which is uncharacteristic for you. You might just be a little tipsy, who knows :P

Back to the subject, WW1 cemented a new paradigm, both on inception and 'conclusion', at least for the core of Europe Dynastic (mostly - or aspiringly so) realms used to annex and grab territories from each other a lot in prior times. The (possibly exagerated) tales of someone who had lived in seven different empires, but never even left the village they were born in, for example. And without front lines visibly moving, just a different set of tax-collectors/etc turning up occasionally.

Post-Armistice, there seemed to be a 'progressive' view that lines of control would (mostly!) return to what they were before... Perhaps not immediately before, though, where an even older claim might have been attended to where it was usefully an additional part of the punitive recompense (mostly financial) tagged on as the primary replacement for "you lost" (arguable) "...thus we take your land!"

Pre-WW2, the Germans therefore took the 'no-invasion invasion' route of engineering the (re)merging of a Greater Germany, but largely by wholesale absorption without traditional mitary (("military"!!)) attack-and-take. It was the division of Poland, which had been a grand old empire of old in the more fluid days, without sufficiently excused popular support on the ground, that moved things into an actual pronounced war (prounounced "Waaaaaaaaaar"</goonshow>).

Post WW2, the differences were slighter still on the borders (Denmark got a bit back from Germany, etc) compared to the Block-based co-nationalism that set up the Soviet states (pretty much Russia-plus) and Western Europe (eventually the far more restrained EU, but overlaps and non-congruity with the baseline NATO that didn't even claim it as a monolithic territory, just membership).

Maybe this explains the Russian attitude, as most 'true Russians' hanker back to the Soviet Republic(s) of their/their parents' past, where individual freedom was universal across a monolothic superstats. Universally depressed, but it had something go for it if you had lived through it successfully. Western attitudes have a different history. Allsace-Lorrainne, etc, isn't something we'd expect to change (I doubt the EU would do as ¿Stalin? do with the Crimea, etc).

(I can only personally speak from a UK perspective, though, where borders have generally not been flexible or contestable for quite a while (Ireland/Irish Free State/Eire, and the bit that is now Northern Ireland, aside). We don't have the same Scottish border as back when Hadrian or Anthony were putting down their walls, and Berwick-upon-Tweed has had an interesting time of it, but that was 'set in stone' a long time ago. And apart from some desire to regionalise further the old Cornish territory, etc, there's little recent experience of invasion in the traditional sense (Channel Islands, obviously) and boundary changes are sub-national, annoying the proud Yorkshirefolk finding themselves now in Lancashire, or vice-versa.)

Obviously what Europe (and European-successors) did elsewhere is different, whether Chagos Islands, US Oversees claims, Indian/Pakistan post-partition borderland disputes and various messes in the continent of Africa (largely caused by historic European line-drawing/flag-planting, though without that who knows which different disputes and changes would have evolved). Is the set of South American borders fairly static these days? I know there are closures and political historicism, but since Bolivia lost its coastal access I'm not sure how much more has actually shifted.

And with China. Well, Taiwan aside (which itself has claim to the greater China, as well, just less likely to do anything about it) it seems to have been trying the creeping-tentacle game of gaining client-states via infrasructure (and loan-defaults, possibly engineered that way from the start), which is what some accuse the EU and/or NATO of, but clearly more insideously so.


Sorry, been writing and editing this for an hour now, and I think I've far exceeded my initial brief I set myself to quickly prattle away about. Leaving a few gross defects in my generalisations that I meant to double-check - but realised I'd end up writing more just in clarifications than I was starting with. ;)
« Last Edit: February 16, 2022, 10:09:41 am by Starver »
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Lord Shonus

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #47606 on: February 16, 2022, 10:06:04 am »

Yeah, those were tablet typos.
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martinuzz

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #47607 on: February 16, 2022, 10:17:12 am »

Starver gains +2 Sherlock points
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LordBaal

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #47608 on: February 17, 2022, 08:08:33 am »

I have years saying Putin migth want to go after a new Soviet Union, of course with the post perestroica communism were the top brass of the party become the new oligarchs and own everything, which is basically socialism/communism applied in real life, just that instead of state companies these are private again but hold the absolute monopoly in their fields.

He said that he knows Russia is not in a good shape in conventional arms but "we have nukes tm" is an option. While this is probably 99% bravado, a 1% in a very dire or desperate moment can be very luring, and as every communist/socialist or tyrant (of any political spectrum) leader, Putin won't leave office alive or at least peacefully, and certainly no in elections, so its terrifying to wonder what he migth do, and is fully capable of doing, in a moment of despair.
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martinuzz

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #47609 on: February 17, 2022, 08:37:54 am »

Armed conflict in Eastern Ukraine is spiking, with artillery fire at numerous places of the 450km frontline. One artillery shell hit a Ukrainian kindergarten, 2 teachers were wounded.

Both sides are accusing each other of shooting first.
Western countries have been warning for a while now that Russia might create a false flag casus belli like this.
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