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[martinuzz]

As a Russian, seeing this stuff from the inside, I think Putin's actions right now are saber-rattling meant to spook the West. If Putin wanted to invade he was in a good position to do so several times before.

I sincerely hope you are right. No one over here wants to go to war with Russia.

[LordBaal]

In mother Russia war goes to you!

Buth yeah, a war right know is the least thing I need. But given my luck just as I finally found a decent job and are a few months into it of course some dicks have to blow up the planet with nukes....

[martinuzz]

US Navy is trying to fish a F-35 out of the South Chinese Sea before China gets their hands on it.

It crashed into the ocean during training mission. The pilot and 6 aircraft carrier crew are wounded, the aircraft carrier deck slightly damaged (but already back to operational status)

Race to the bottom: South Chinese Sea edition

[dragdeler]

a

[Folly]

Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer has announced his retirement.

Naturally, the top priority on everyone's mind right now is making sure that his replacement is the correct color and gender.

[Starver]

US Navy is trying to fish a F-35 out of the South Chinese Sea before China gets their hands on it.

It crashed into the ocean during training mission. The pilot and 6 aircraft carrier crew are wounded, the aircraft carrier deck slightly damaged (but already back to operational status)

Race to the bottom: South Chinese Sea edition

We already dunked one in the Mediterranean. Still being investigated, maybe not much more to be publically revealed. Though much less troublesome than this new incident, it sounds like.

[martinuzz]

From what I've understood, the Mediterranean wreck has been recovered in december, a few weeks after it crashed.

[Dostoevsky]

Mildly surprised this hasn't been mentioned here already, but news has broke that Breyer intends to retire at the end of this Supreme Court term (i.e. roughly in June). Schumer will likely try to get a nominee done before the midterms, or at least before the end of the post-election lame duck, in keeping with McConnell precedent.

Biden, meanwhile, is not commenting on Breyer's plans (which are not yet official, mind), though he did say he "stands by" his pledge to nominate an African American woman to the position. There are more than a few traditionally-qualified candidates available under that criteria.

(and no, Harris or Michelle Obama are not likely candidates in any way)

[Starver]

From what I've understood, the Mediterranean wreck has been recovered in december, a few weeks after it crashed.

Yeah, but it proves that they easily fall off ships/whatever.

(The reason they do, whether or not it was pure pilot-error, probably won't be fully announced in a way that isn't an obfuscated face-saving way.)

And if it took a few weeks to get the Med wreck back, in practically friendly territory with countless friendly salvaging resources at hand (if the naval formation can't sort it out themselves), imagine the issues out of being nearly in China's back yard... In fact, possibly a patch that China insists is claiming forms part of its yard, and yells at people to stay off while it confiscates any balls that land there.

[Lord Shonus]

The previous crash-on-takeoff was a blatant ground-crew error - the protective shrouds on the jet intakes were not properly removed and nobody noticed. At least some of the other crashes were aircraft faults, but that's not super unusual for a new-model aircraft.

[anewaname]

If Putin was going to invade with intent to conquer, he could have done it hard and fast and with as much surprise as he could manage. He did not do this because he would not be supported by the other authoritarian countries, and Russia would become the lone target for sanctions and political condemnations until Ukraine was released.

He either needs a legally-debatable reason to invade (fabricated or actual attacks by Ukraine, Ukraine murdering or expelling Russian sympathizers/nationalists from Ukraine, Ukraine's own uprising of Russian sympathizers/nationalists, etc) or he needs enough other countries to form a "military coalition of authoritarians" (as happened before many times before in history), so that group of nations can physically express their desires to conquer/enslave/exterminate anyone they want to.

This is the large scale version of "attempting to flush game when you are hunting"... You use loud and startling provocations to get your target to start running so you can justify shooting it. That is the core of it... for police who seek excuses to use force, for "militia" civilians who seek excuses to use force, for tavern-hoppers who seek to use force, for 7 year-olds who seek excuses to use force. There is a mental drug release when you succeed in flushing a target into the open, and the "thrill of the chase" is a result of that mental drug release.

Putin is not posturing or sabre-rattling, he is hunting...

His focus on getting authoritarian leaders into power in other countries is part of this. That mental drug release has another feature, it blinds the hunter to the ethical and moral considerations of the situation. It blinds the hunter to the consideration of "am I killing to survive, or am I killing for the joy of killing?"

Putin is hunting... and he wants others to join him.

[Lord Shonus]

He's not going to get an incident that matters, any more than Hitler did in '39. Western intelligence services have already publicized allegations of a planned false-flag operation, which is as clear a "we aren't going to buy your bullshit" signal as it is possible to send. He can try, just as Hitler did in '39, but it won't convince anybody except maybe Russians.

A coalition effort is also going to be quite difficult to pull off. Just about the only potential "ally" that would be able to contribute meaningfully is China, and they're currently in good enough shape that they probably don't need a Short Victorious War but shaky enough that a war would be very risky. Any other potential sign on would be easily crushed by just about any NATO power, meaning that they would not contribute much to an alliance but would also be taking a hell of a risk.

[JoshuaFH]

I think Putin realized that maybe he doesn't live in the 1940's anymore. If a modern war between superpowers broke out, it wouldn't be a long, stretched out war like WW2 was; it would be ended decisively very quickly by the very existence of modern weapons. You don't even need to factor in nuclear weapons, just regular modern weapons, which are now so potent that even first world superpowers can probably be obliterated in a matter of months, or just weeks if they aren't able to win first; and even then any victory would undoubtedly be Pyrrhic.

[dragdeler]

a

[martinuzz]

Meanwhile in Ukraine, civilians are arming themselves in case they need to turn to guerilla warfare against Russian invasion.
The woman in the picture, 52-year old market researcher Mariana Zhaglo, bought an automatic rifle to fight in case of Russian invasion.
She says she is prepared to die for her freedom.

https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/rusland-heeft-zijn-antwoorden-op-schrift-van-de-vs-en-de-navo-nu-is-poetin-aan-zet~b4c94f4f/