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[MetalSlimeHunt]

It's a true Pelosi Move to, when confronted with an enemy President who's list of crimes is absurdly long and almost all publicly bragged about, select the single most emotionally null technicality entry of the bunch and try to ride or die on it.

Do yourselves a favor and ignore this theater, you'll crack if you let this stuff live rent-free in your head long enough.

[Folly]

Democrats just finished their meeting, and word is that Impeachment Inquiry announcement is imminent.

Edit: Impeachment Inquiry has been announced!

[Doomblade187]

Is announced, focus on obstruction of Justice via complaint block and constitutional over-reach.

Conservative talk show host seems to agree could be solid impeachable offense if corroborated, so not just Democratic worry.

[itisnotlogical]

Forgive me for being pessimistic, but even if he's impeached his fanbase will only grow stronger. Any moronic thing he does only makes him more and more popular with people who don't read the news, or who get their facts third- or fourth-hand from random Facebook bots and Twitter stooges.

If he falls, someone exactly like him will be right behind, even if it has to wait for the election after next. He normalized the idea that you don't need experience or dignity to be a President, and that credentials, honesty and expertise are to be distrusted out-of-hand.

[Lord Shonus]

That's not what history shows - Nixon was far more popular than Trump is now until shortly before he left office, and his die-hard fans weren't much less invested. By the time Ford had been in office for awhile, his pardoning of the villainous Nixon was a fairly decent scandal by itself. If Trump did get kicked out of office, most of the right-leaning media would swivel to praising now-President Pence, much of Trump's outlets would be cut off (both because he would no longer be anybody important, and because not being president would eliminate much of the immunity that Twitter and others have been handing him), and that would be enough to vastly undermine his support.

Too early to tell if we'll get to that point, especially given the makeup of the Senate. That said, there's very little McConnel could do to throw sand in the gears of an impeachment trial, which might give insecure Republican Senators more freedom to "vote their conscience".

[Dunamisdeos]

And illegality is how you impeach someone

It is not. Impeachment is a political process and does not require a violation of the law.

I don't think that''s accurate.

Been reading up on it.

https://litigation.findlaw.com/legal-system/presidential-impeachment-the-legal-standard-and-procedure.html

I agree with the problems put forth with the first interpretation, in that making it solely at the judgement of the house means that the President serves solely at the pleasure of Congress.

I think in this case the fourth interpretation applies.

Relating to the President's Official Duties

The fourth view is that an indictable crime is not required, but that the impeachable act or acts done by the President must in some way relate to his official duties. The bad act may or may not be a crime but it would be more serious than simply "maladministration." This view is buttressed in part by an analysis of the entire phrase "high crimes or misdemeanors" which seems to be a term of art speaking to a political connection for the bad act or acts. In order to impeach it would not be necessary for the act to be a crime, but not all crimes would be impeachable offenses.

Some hold the opinion that Congress could pass laws by declaring what constitutes "high crimes and misdemeanors" which would, in effect, be a list of impeachable offenses. That has never happened.

[scourge728]

I'm not sure how impeachment proceedings work, is the supreme court involved, if so trump is for all intents and purposes never going to be punished for literally anything at all

[Dunamisdeos]

I'm not sure how impeachment proceedings work, is the supreme court involved, if so trump is for all intents and purposes never going to be punished for literally anything at all

Here you go.

Impeachment Trials

The trial in the Senate is handled by "Managers" from the House of Representatives, with the assistance of attorneys employed for the prosecution of the impeachment case. The Senate sits as a jury. (In the past the Senate has heard judicial impeachments by appointing a subcommittee especially for that purpose, which then reports its findings to the Senate as a whole.) The Senate would then debate the matter, and vote, each individual Senator voting whether to convict the President and remove him from office, or against conviction. If more than two-thirds of the Senators present vote to convict, the President would be removed from office. Thus a Senator who abstained from voting but was present would in effect be voting against conviction. (Article I § 3).

[scourge728]

I'm not sure how impeachment proceedings work, is the supreme court involved, if so trump is for all intents and purposes never going to be punished for literally anything at all

Here you go.

Impeachment Trials

The trial in the Senate is handled by "Managers" from the House of Representatives, with the assistance of attorneys employed for the prosecution of the impeachment case. The Senate sits as a jury. (In the past the Senate has heard judicial impeachments by appointing a subcommittee especially for that purpose, which then reports its findings to the Senate as a whole.) The Senate would then debate the matter, and vote, each individual Senator voting whether to convict the President and remove him from office, or against conviction. If more than two-thirds of the Senators present vote to convict, the President would be removed from office. Thus a Senator who abstained from voting but was present would in effect be voting against conviction. (Article I § 3).

Well that's surprisingly good news

[smjjames]

Also, the thing is that what he's doing is something that the legal system isn't equipped to handle, or normally handles all the time. It's something that's firmly in the political realm.

[sluissa]

Well that's surprisingly good news

Not really. Republicans still control the senate, and Trump is still very much popular with Republicans. There's no way you're getting him out of office on something like this. Best you can hope for is for the whole thing to drag into the general election season and be a distraction to his campaigning.

While I agree that you have to attempt to do something at some point, and not just keep letting him get away with it just because "we can't do anything anyway."
This might work in Trump's favor. Get it done early, get it over with, get the senate to vote no, and then he goes into the election with as clean a record as he can, having survived an impeachment attempt.

[Lord Shonus]

That's less clear than it looks at first glance. There's a lot of senators with an R next to their name that are up for reelection next year, and a lot of those are surge-elected rather than coming from long-standing R districts. So far, a lot of the "Senate Republicans are lock-step with Trump" comes from McConnell burying potentially challenging legislation. There's no way he could do that with an impeachment, and that would potentially put some Senators in a position where they risk losing their seat if they don't play fair.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

They're Republicans. Come on, can you honestly tell me you believe a full 19 Republican senators will go directly against the single best grift their party has found in a decade? They're at much more risk of losing their seats by being branded as traitors by the RNC than by supporting His Excellency The President of the United States of America.

[Dunamisdeos]

Depends how many of them think he can actually win.

Remember when Trump first showed up noone, including the majority of Repubs, cared for him at all. They only started attaching to him when he started gaining momentum and showing signs of coming through.

Hopeful thinking on my part, for sure, but the ones who were only along for the ride will probably turn on him if things get dicey. Depends on how well the Dems handle this.

[Lord Shonus]

That's the big thing - it is relatively rare for Senate and Presidential elections to have different results in a single state. If a potentially vulnerable senator is in the impeachment proceedings, and we assume that his personal political benefit is the only consideration being taken, there is a real chance that the calculus will be "My state is much more likely to give Pence a full term than they are to reelect Trump, so I need to get Trump out of my way" or even "Well, we're losing the Presidential election no matter what this year, but if I prove I'm willing to shoot my own dog, that might give me the edge."

How good that chance is will be largely a factor on how the public feels about the process.