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[wierd]

The removal of lead from gasoline and paints has correlated nicely with a strong reduction in the incidence rates of various violent crimes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead%E2%80%93crime_hypothesis
Whether or not it is causal, that's still up in the air. I just said it has correlated nicely.  Which it has.


Flint, by their egregious lack of action on this public health issue, has turned itself into a natural experiment to test this hypothesis.  I look forward to reading the data in a few years.

[Trekkin]

Flint, by their egregious lack of action on this public health issue, has turned itself into a natural experiment to test this hypothesis.  I look forward to reading the data in a few years.

Inasmuch as experiments are possible in biosocial criminology, anyway.

[wierd]

At the very least, it can either add weight to, or detract from, said hypothesis. 

(If lead was a causal factor in incidence rate of violent criminality due to chemical influence or neural patterning during childhood development, then it would be expected that a city that has had elevated soluble lead levels past the previously examined timeline would have retained that influence, and the reduction/elimination of that source of soluble lead should lead to measurable reductions in incidence rates in the coming decades. If it does not, it greatly weakens the position of the hypothesis; if it does, it gives some insight into the degree to which it may have been causal to the observed national reduction, since it would have been in isolation of the other possible contributing factors.) 

It should be an interesting read regardless.

[misko27]

What I'm hearing is "conduct regular undisclosed poisoning of various cities across the country in order to test said hypothesis".

[wierd]

That would be unconscionable.  The purposeful exposure of civilians to pathogens presumably stopped with things like the Tuskegee experiment. (presumably. Hopefully.)

However, since the city government decided that money was more important than human life, and did the unconscionable thing FOR the researchers, all that needs doing now is to remove the systemic source of the pathogen, and then examine the trends in criminality over the resulting decades.

[Trekkin]

since it would have been in isolation of the other possible contributing factors.) 

This is the part that sociology doesn't do, being observational science, and biosocial criminology still depends on sociological research to give context to all the biology. Their statistical framework just doesn't operate that way.

It might be interesting to read (although I'm pessimistic about it being open access) but I wouldn't expect anything more than the usual caveats about multifactorial causation and Flint being an exceptional case with a small sample size relative to the studies that have already been done.

[Starver]

Why stop at lead?   There's currently 118 elements to try elevated levels of, plus the null hypothesis, across 19,522 cities in the US. So cohorts of ~164 for each, allowing for various different levels and/or demographic spreading to counter other factors.

Some might complain if they're down to receive arsenic, plutonium, etc, but I'm sure the people in the lithium cities won't be too unhappy, and those in helium cities would also speak highly of the study!

[Max™]

I thought that was a bit of a stretch until I got to the helium one, fucking masterfully done.

[Trekkin]

Why stop at lead?   There's currently 118 elements to try elevated levels of, plus the null hypothesis, across 19,522 cities in the US. So cohorts of ~164 for each, allowing for various different levels and/or demographic spreading to counter other factors.

Some might complain if they're down to receive arsenic, plutonium, etc, but I'm sure the people in the lithium cities won't be too unhappy, and those in helium cities would also speak highly of the study!

And we can pay for it by filming the fights between the different alkali metals cohorts about whose city is most energetically exploding.

[PTTG??]

I volunteer my town for group 79!

Failing that, we'll go with Oganesson, because good luck making enough to deliver appreciable amounts.

[wierd]

Sadly, I think we will have to repeat the experiment many times with the mercurial test battery.

The results are so damnably inconsistent!

[Max™]

Can I apply for my iron to be in alloy form, spring steel suitable for sawmaking please.

[Trekkin]

I volunteer my town for group 79!

It's rare that people volunteer for cyanosis, chrysiasis, gastrointestinal bleeding and compromised immune systems, but hey, more power to you.

Gold: It's so valuable, you'll vomit blood until your eyes turn black!

[wierd]

I volunteer my town for group 79!

It's rare that people volunteer for cyanosis, chrysiasis, gastrointestinal bleeding and compromised immune systems, but hey, more power to you.

Gold: It's so valuable, you'll vomit blood until your eyes turn black!

And yet, it's an ingredient in authentic wiener schnitzel.
http://www.rudilechners.com/food/wiener-schnitzel-infamous-viennese-dish/

Mmm.. Gold flakes in my breaded veal. So nice.

[Trekkin]

I'm surprised you didn't mention gold's use in treating joint inflammation, given your vocation -- and since it's one of the more common ways people accumulate enough gold in their systems to actually show symptoms of gold toxicity.