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[Maximum Spin]

Meh. The Republican base takes "voting against your own self-interest" as a core value. All it needs is some nice gentlemen on the radio screaming about how they have less money now because something something gay Mexican welfare moms, and they'll keep steadfastly voting R.

I honestly don't expect this to swing that many votes that weren't already swung. I think popular attitudes towards Trump are going to be the bigger factor in any electoral swing.

See, this kind of thing is what we were talking about earlier and what makes you totally non-credible. I live amongst the "Republican base" you're describing and I can categorically state that this is not true. Nobody's going to flip Dem, because Democrats ratcheting up your taxes openly isn't better than Republicans raising taxes after pretending they won't, but primary challenges are looking distinctly likely.

[McTraveller]

Taxes will always be a mess, no matter how they are passed or by whom, because they are always a ridiculously political mishmash of both funding services the public wants as well as behavioral manipulation (possibly "good" like discourage pollution, or "bad" like certain subsidies. See the unexpected detrimental side effects of federal government involvement in college loan funding, which was supposed to be a "good" thing but is actually very questionable), self-interest protection, funding bread-and-circuses, and probably a dozen other less obvious things.

[smjjames]

Meh. The Republican base takes "voting against your own self-interest" as a core value. All it needs is some nice gentlemen on the radio screaming about how they have less money now because something something gay Mexican welfare moms, and they'll keep steadfastly voting R.

I honestly don't expect this to swing that many votes that weren't already swung. I think popular attitudes towards Trump are going to be the bigger factor in any electoral swing.

See, this kind of thing is what we were talking about earlier and what makes you totally non-credible. I live amongst the "Republican base" you're describing and I can categorically state that this is not true. Nobody's going to flip Dem, because Democrats ratcheting up your taxes openly isn't better than Republicans raising taxes after pretending they won't, but primary challenges are looking distinctly likely.

Other than the fact that I know taxes are generally high in blue states, I haven't really noticed Dems racheting up the taxes publicly, then again, maybe I'm just not really paying attention....

I'd rather have higher taxes than forced government budget austerity though....

[sluissa]

Meh. The Republican base takes "voting against your own self-interest" as a core value. All it needs is some nice gentlemen on the radio screaming about how they have less money now because something something gay Mexican welfare moms, and they'll keep steadfastly voting R.

I honestly don't expect this to swing that many votes that weren't already swung. I think popular attitudes towards Trump are going to be the bigger factor in any electoral swing.

See, this kind of thing is what we were talking about earlier and what makes you totally non-credible. I live amongst the "Republican base" you're describing and I can categorically state that this is not true. Nobody's going to flip Dem, because Democrats ratcheting up your taxes openly isn't better than Republicans raising taxes after pretending they won't, but primary challenges are looking distinctly likely.

There's an idea. I'm sure I"m not the first, and I partially assume it's occurring in some small amount already, but how illegal/difficult would it be for moderate/left leaning groups to simply fund moderate/left leaning candidates to run under the republican primary in solidly red areas?

Obviously it'll vary from area to area, but in my particular location, I hate who we have now representing us, but it's not like the primaries (of either side) were filled with competent and reasonable candidates that just couldn't get ahead. The choices were largely all bad with few exceptions, and those exceptions weren't great sounding either. In one case I remember thinking "I hate voting for this local big business guy who'd just be buying his way into office... but there's really nobody else that sounds sane." He still didn't win, probably because despite being rich on a local level he didn't have PAC/national party level backing and thus still fell behind in campaigning. Probably also got gun shy about spending too much of his own money on the thing. PACs have fewer qualms about spending every dime they have access to than, you know, people who have to still feed their family on the same funds they're campaigning with.

EDIT:

Meh. The Republican base takes "voting against your own self-interest" as a core value. All it needs is some nice gentlemen on the radio screaming about how they have less money now because something something gay Mexican welfare moms, and they'll keep steadfastly voting R.

I honestly don't expect this to swing that many votes that weren't already swung. I think popular attitudes towards Trump are going to be the bigger factor in any electoral swing.

See, this kind of thing is what we were talking about earlier and what makes you totally non-credible. I live amongst the "Republican base" you're describing and I can categorically state that this is not true. Nobody's going to flip Dem, because Democrats ratcheting up your taxes openly isn't better than Republicans raising taxes after pretending they won't, but primary challenges are looking distinctly likely.

Other than the fact that I know taxes are generally high in blue states, I haven't really noticed Dems racheting up the taxes publicly, then again, maybe I'm just not really paying attention....

I'd rather have higher taxes than forced government budget austerity though....

I'd rather be paying taxes than paying for vital services through private sources... but hey... I'll just continue paying my taxes, and then insurance premiums for 2-3 different types of insurance, and additional bills on top of the insurance because they never cover everything, and fundraisers for public institutions like schools because taxes don't fund those properly either, and tolls for some of the roads I use because why the hell not, and... need I go on?

I 100% understand distrust of the government, but the money is coming from somewhere whether it's in the form of taxes or something else.

[smjjames]

Why would it be illegal for moderate/left leaning groups to fund moderate Republicans in red areas? The issue isn't whether it's difficult or legal, it's all about tribalism, would the Republican candidates or their voters recoil at the thought of being funded by moderate/liberal groups? Would the moderate/left leaning groups be ostracized for funding moderate Republicans? (last two are rhetorical questions)

[Trekkin]

Taxes will always be a mess, no matter how they are passed or by whom, because they are always a ridiculously political mishmash of both funding services the public wants as well as behavioral manipulation (possibly "good" like discourage pollution, or "bad" like certain subsidies. See the unexpected detrimental side effects of federal government involvement in college loan funding, which was supposed to be a "good" thing but is actually very questionable), self-interest protection, funding bread-and-circuses, and probably a dozen other less obvious things.

And they are by their nature not straightforward to translate from legislation to aggregate outcomes. Particularly right now, while the text of the final bill is unknown and there's reason to doubt the handwritten sections will make it in exactly as written, it can be difficult for voters to project in concrete financial terms what the net impact of all the changes are, whether for themselves or for the deficit or for the financial incentives they'd like imposed on various behaviors.

Absent the ability to make those kind of determinations, the political impact is going to be limited to sound bites about private jet deductions and corporate tax breaks and maybe some general concerns about the deficit -- and I'd argue that while those concerns are currently in the process of baking into the generic Congressional horse race polling, it's not possible right now to isolate them from the sexual harassment fallout and monument stuff and moving the embassy and the Mueller developments.

In other words, the bill that will really affect Republicans in the midterms is still being written in committee, and it's too in flux to project precisely what impact it will have. The public opinion of the tax bill in aggregate is certainly unfavorable, though.

[smjjames]

Or if the handwritten sections will make it in at all, given how illegible they are. Unless they find whoever wrote the handwritten parts and ask what they wrote.

[sluissa]

Why would it be illegal for moderate/left leaning groups to fund moderate Republicans in red areas? The issue isn't whether it's difficult or legal, it's all about tribalism, would the Republican candidates or their voters recoil at the thought of being funded by moderate/liberal groups? Would the moderate/left leaning groups be ostracized for funding moderate Republicans? (last two are rhetorical questions)

Just name the left leaning PAC "Make America Greater Again" or something. Those political funding groups are always named to obscure their true purpose and people almost never look too deeply into it unless they draw the ire of fox news or something. But as long as you're not flat out funding bernie sanders to run as a republican... Moderates could probably slip through easily.

[RedKing]

Meh. The Republican base takes "voting against your own self-interest" as a core value. All it needs is some nice gentlemen on the radio screaming about how they have less money now because something something gay Mexican welfare moms, and they'll keep steadfastly voting R.

I honestly don't expect this to swing that many votes that weren't already swung. I think popular attitudes towards Trump are going to be the bigger factor in any electoral swing.

See, this kind of thing is what we were talking about earlier and what makes you totally non-credible. I live amongst the "Republican base" you're describing and I can categorically state that this is not true. Nobody's going to flip Dem, because Democrats ratcheting up your taxes openly isn't better than Republicans raising taxes after pretending they won't, but primary challenges are looking distinctly likely.

Dems will tax you and use that money to pave your roads, build a park, fund your schools.
Republicans will claim they're giving you a tax break, really won't, and then use that money to offset a 15% corporate tax break.

You tell me which one is in the self-interest of the average person, be they Republican or Democrat?

And sure, Republicans will claim that the corporate tax break is even BETTER than services, because corporations will automagically use all that newfound wealth to create jobs, raise wages, etc. (and then people can afford to pave their own roads, I guess?) Except that anybody who's been alive more than 10 years knows that this is not what will happen. CEOs have flatly stated that's not what they're going to do with the money. That money gets transferred to shareholders, either in the form of dividends or as higher stock prices created by stock buybacks.

It's the same goddamn trickle-down bullshit that has NEVER worked. It didn't work for Reagan, it didn't work for Bush, it's not going to work for Trump. But it doesn't matter, because as you yourself point out, the Republican base isn't going to start voting for Democrats, because they're Democrats.

[sluissa]

Meh. The Republican base takes "voting against your own self-interest" as a core value. All it needs is some nice gentlemen on the radio screaming about how they have less money now because something something gay Mexican welfare moms, and they'll keep steadfastly voting R.

I honestly don't expect this to swing that many votes that weren't already swung. I think popular attitudes towards Trump are going to be the bigger factor in any electoral swing.

See, this kind of thing is what we were talking about earlier and what makes you totally non-credible. I live amongst the "Republican base" you're describing and I can categorically state that this is not true. Nobody's going to flip Dem, because Democrats ratcheting up your taxes openly isn't better than Republicans raising taxes after pretending they won't, but primary challenges are looking distinctly likely.

Dems will tax you and use that money to pave your roads, build a park, fund your schools.
Republicans will claim they're giving you a tax break, really won't, and then use that money to offset a 15% corporate tax break.

You tell me which one is in the self-interest of the average person, be they Republican or Democrat?

And sure, Republicans will claim that the corporate tax break is even BETTER than services, because corporations will automagically use all that newfound wealth to create jobs, raise wages, etc. (and then people can afford to pave their own roads, I guess?) Except that anybody who's been alive more than 10 years knows that this is not what will happen. CEOs have flatly stated that's not what they're going to do with the money. That money gets transferred to shareholders, either in the form of dividends or as higher stock prices created by stock buybacks.

It's the same goddamn trickle-down bullshit that has NEVER worked. It didn't work for Reagan, it didn't work for Bush, it's not going to work for Trump. But it doesn't matter, because as you yourself point out, the Republican base isn't going to start voting for Democrats, because they're Democrats.

There's still a stigma'd history of taxing, promising roads, but never actually delivering roads, and the taxes are just... where? Or the roads cost 10x what they should and are built by some politician's cousin. I admit, things have gotten better on the accountability side, but it's not gone completely and certainly no worse than what republicans do... but there are reasons for that mistrust.

The problem, however, is this circle jerk, echo chamber media universe we've created. People will find the news source that agrees with their perceptions and then it'll keep reinforcing those old perceptions no matter how reality changes.

[RedKing]

A fair point, but I can't just accept "oh well, Democrats sucked in the past, so I'm voting Republican" as a valid political thought process. Especially when Republicans are breathtakingly pushing the frontiers of suckitude.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

They call it a tax break because it breaks everything.

[Karnewarrior]

Voting republican because the Democrats betrayed you is like going to McDonalds because Subway made you fat.

[McTraveller]

Dems will tax you and use that money to pave your roads, build a park, fund your schools.

Have you ever been to southeast Michigan?  One of the bluest-of-blue voting histories - I'm talking Wayne, Oakland, and Washtenaw counties here (you can probably add Genesee county where Flint is, too).  We have an astonishing number of dirt roads, and the ones we paved would often actually be better if they were dirt instead of the concrete rubble they are...and I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader to look up on the condition of public education in these counties (and you can't blame the current state administration either - these problems have been generations in the making, and will likely take generations to fix).

Anyway my point is actually to say: whatever party label you have, you are not going to get what you think you're going to get from your taxes.  What will get you what you want from your tax dollars is people of integrity - regardless of their party label.  Sadly, "integrity" is not something that is all that common in politics...

[sluissa]

Voting republican because the Democrats betrayed you is like going to McDonalds because Subway made you fat.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/01/06/mcdonalds-nutrition-fast-food-mcdonalds-menu/4339395/

"It's not where you eat, it's what you eat."