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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 4460420 times)

smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump fires FBI Dir. Comey, sheneinighans abound
« Reply #6375 on: May 16, 2017, 01:41:14 pm »

NPR says Trump disclosed the nature of an ISIS plot of somesort in a particular city in Syria but did not say how they found out about it. So its apparently not much of a leak.

Even if on the face of it, it's not much of a leak to us, it's still a massive deal for intel services and our allies because of the trust involved in NOT leaking it at all. The consequences of that are already happening.

The ally that gave us the information is apparently Israel, and in fact, back in January, US intel people were afraid that Trump would leak intel to Russia and via them, Iran. Now their fears are verified.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2017, 02:01:36 pm by smjjames »
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Rusty Shackleford

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump fires FBI Dir. Comey, sheneinighans abound
« Reply #6376 on: May 16, 2017, 03:15:44 pm »

NPR says Trump disclosed the nature of an ISIS plot of somesort in a particular city in Syria but did not say how they found out about it. So its apparently not much of a leak.

Even if on the face of it, it's not much of a leak to us, it's still a massive deal for intel services and our allies because of the trust involved in NOT leaking it at all. The consequences of that are already happening.

The ally that gave us the information is apparently Israel, and in fact, back in January, US intel people were afraid that Trump would leak intel to Russia and via them, Iran. Now their fears are verified.

I suspected the Lebonese. I'm really surpised the Israelis would share intelligence with the US unless it directly impacted them somehow and that wouldn't be of interest to the Russians.

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Sergarr

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump fires FBI Dir. Comey, sheneinighans abound
« Reply #6377 on: May 16, 2017, 03:23:54 pm »

NPR says Trump disclosed the nature of an ISIS plot of somesort in a particular city in Syria but did not say how they found out about it. So its apparently not much of a leak.

Even if on the face of it, it's not much of a leak to us, it's still a massive deal for intel services and our allies because of the trust involved in NOT leaking it at all. The consequences of that are already happening.

The ally that gave us the information is apparently Israel, and in fact, back in January, US intel people were afraid that Trump would leak intel to Russia and via them, Iran. Now their fears are verified.

I suspected the Lebonese. I'm really surpised the Israelis would share intelligence with the US unless it directly impacted them somehow and that wouldn't be of interest to the Russians.
They did only provide it on a condition of no disclosure to any third parties or USA allies, which is why it was code-word top secret intel. I guess they didn't expect that Trump would just tell it outright to a Russian delegation, for no adequate reason.

A plight of people that are smart and intelligent and usually operate against other smart and intelligent people is that they cannot truly understand just how stupid the dumb people are.
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump fires FBI Dir. Comey, sheneinighans abound
« Reply #6378 on: May 16, 2017, 03:28:11 pm »

NPR says Trump disclosed the nature of an ISIS plot of somesort in a particular city in Syria but did not say how they found out about it. So its apparently not much of a leak.

Even if on the face of it, it's not much of a leak to us, it's still a massive deal for intel services and our allies because of the trust involved in NOT leaking it at all. The consequences of that are already happening.

The ally that gave us the information is apparently Israel, and in fact, back in January, US intel people were afraid that Trump would leak intel to Russia and via them, Iran. Now their fears are verified.

I suspected the Lebonese. I'm really surpised the Israelis would share intelligence with the US unless it directly impacted them somehow and that wouldn't be of interest to the Russians.
They did only provide it on a condition of no disclosure to any third parties or USA allies, which is why it was code-word top secret intel. I guess they didn't expect that Trump would just tell it outright to a Russian delegation, for no adequate reason.

A plight of people that are smart and intelligent and usually operate against other smart and intelligent people is that they cannot truly understand just how stupid the dumb people are.

Trump apparently was also unaware of where it came from and may or may not have known how sensitive it was.

So, it may not be entirely Trumps fault, the picture is muddier now that he may not have been fully informed on that piece of information. Not that it makes the whole thing okay for Israeli intel services.
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Rusty Shackleford

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump fires FBI Dir. Comey, sheneinighans abound
« Reply #6379 on: May 16, 2017, 03:37:12 pm »

NPR says Trump disclosed the nature of an ISIS plot of somesort in a particular city in Syria but did not say how they found out about it. So its apparently not much of a leak.

Even if on the face of it, it's not much of a leak to us, it's still a massive deal for intel services and our allies because of the trust involved in NOT leaking it at all. The consequences of that are already happening.

The ally that gave us the information is apparently Israel, and in fact, back in January, US intel people were afraid that Trump would leak intel to Russia and via them, Iran. Now their fears are verified.

I suspected the Lebonese. I'm really surpised the Israelis would share intelligence with the US unless it directly impacted them somehow and that wouldn't be of interest to the Russians.
They did only provide it on a condition of no disclosure to any third parties or USA allies, which is why it was code-word top secret intel. I guess they didn't expect that Trump would just tell it outright to a Russian delegation, for no adequate reason.

A plight of people that are smart and intelligent and usually operate against other smart and intelligent people is that they cannot truly understand just how stupid the dumb people are.

I dunno if Trump was stupid for telling the Russians. That ISIS plot might have involved the lives of Russian soldiers in Syria and thought he could win a favor from them.

If the situation was reversed, say Iran told Russia about a plot that threatened Americans (but promise not to tell anyone!) would it be okay if it went through and the US discovered Russia knew but declined to tell them?

Would the US being pissed off at Russia be better for Russia than if Iran was pissed at them?

Idk. Who really knows what was said also the Israelis are dickheads anyways.
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump fires FBI Dir. Comey, sheneinighans abound
« Reply #6380 on: May 16, 2017, 03:49:57 pm »

We don't know that what he told the Russians was about a plot or a target, sounded more like it was information about the bombs themselves.

And yes, Israel was being a dick with not wanting it to be shared with other allies (even the Five Eyes network). Though without knowing the details, we dont know if they were being reasonable or not.
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Sergarr

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump fires FBI Dir. Comey, sheneinighans abound
« Reply #6381 on: May 16, 2017, 03:59:47 pm »

And yes, Israel was being a dick with not wanting it to be shared with other allies (even the Five Eyes network).
No, they were not. USA allies include countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia who're de-facto supporting ISIS, not wanting the information to be spread is quite reasonable.
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misko27

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump fires FBI Dir. Comey, sheneinighans abound
« Reply #6382 on: May 16, 2017, 04:02:11 pm »

I dunno if Trump was stupid for telling the Russians. That ISIS plot might have involved the lives of Russian soldiers in Syria and thought he could win a favor from them.[

If the situation was reversed, say Iran told Russia about a plot that threatened Americans (but promise not to tell anyone!) would it be okay if it went through and the US discovered Russia knew but declined to tell them?
I don't understand how that's a reversal of this situation. We don't know if whatever plot that was being discussed even involves the lives of Russian soldiers, so your example is just speculation. Maybe the plot specifically is aimed at Americans, or Israelis, or the damn moonmen, but any of those theories are also just speculation based on facts we don't have.

Either way, speaking of "reversals", if some Russian info on a whatever plot also revealed Iran had, idk, infiltrated the IDF or whatever, you can bet we'd be perfectly happy with that, but Iran would probably not be pleased with their soldiers being executed by Israel for treason. And in fact, they'd be pretty pissed at Russia, and rightfully. And next time they'd tell Russia to fuck off.
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump fires FBI Dir. Comey, sheneinighans abound
« Reply #6383 on: May 16, 2017, 04:13:02 pm »

And yes, Israel was being a dick with not wanting it to be shared with other allies (even the Five Eyes network).
No, they were not. USA allies include countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia who're de-facto supporting ISIS, not wanting the information to be spread is quite reasonable.

They said NO other allies, not even the Five Eyes network.
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Rusty Shackleford

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump fires FBI Dir. Comey, sheneinighans abound
« Reply #6384 on: May 16, 2017, 04:13:46 pm »

In that example, of course Iran would be pissed at Russia, but the US would presumably be thankful for Russia divulging that info.

Also yeah, no idea what information was disclosed. Maybe it was information totally irrelevant to Russian interests except it opened an avenue to explore US intelligence gathering methods.

I feel like nobody is that dumb and I figure the information was of some use to the Russians.

'Hey guys I know you came here to talk peteroleum prices and shipping right of ways and I will completwly hear you out but you know about Syria, you like to bomb indiscriminately lemme tell you I'm all for that, I completely agree but lemme tell you, I got a great target for you folks to bomb, you might be interested, I dunno. If I were you II'd want to bomb it. A great target, so good. You'll want to bomb it. II'd bomb it in a heart-beat I tell ya, folks. don't tell anyone its classified but If I were you, strictly for your own benefit here...'
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump fires FBI Dir. Comey, sheneinighans abound
« Reply #6385 on: May 16, 2017, 04:24:18 pm »

And on top of that, he was freaking bragging about the intel, who the heck does that? Trump obviously*

*Other options are a kid, and a supervillain in a gloating monologue.
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Frumple

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump fires FBI Dir. Comey, sheneinighans abound
« Reply #6386 on: May 16, 2017, 04:30:41 pm »

... if you feel like no one is that dumb, you possibly haven't paid attention to the history of our current president. Or the last few months. Past year. Etc. Though "dumb" isn't quite the right word. Maliciously uncaring, willfully incompetent, stuff more along those lines. Not so much an issue of mental acuity as it is yet another example of a pretty much complete disregard of the concerns of everyone not him, and not very immediately involved with his interests. Trump may understand what second order consequences and soft power and whatnot is from an intellectual standpoint, or however you care to measure stupidity in this situation, he just doesn't give a damn about it.

Not really sure why the information being of use to the russians is some kind of point of merit, though. Russia is not our friend, is not our allies' friend, and is pretty actively working against our and our allies interests on a number of fronts. Helping them do that and/or betraying the trust of our actual allies and partners to their benefit is just... something. Approaching the point where it starts being reasonable to assume malice even if you're giving someone an extreme degree of charity towards their intent.
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump fires FBI Dir. Comey, sheneinighans abound
« Reply #6387 on: May 16, 2017, 05:04:05 pm »

Given what McMaster said though, you kind of have to give some benefit of the doubt here, as he may not have been briefed fully on it.
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Frumple

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump fires FBI Dir. Comey, sheneinighans abound
« Reply #6388 on: May 16, 2017, 05:27:08 pm »

... well, no, not exactly.

When you're not briefed fully on subjects as potentially serious as the one in question seems to be, you don't open your mouth. Like, full stop, you shut the hell up until you're entirely sure you're in the clear because both the immediate consequences and possible knock-on ones can very easily be measured in lives in both the short and long term. You don't exactly get a by when it comes to information of this sort, particularly when you're disclosing to an adversarial foreign politician, for running your mouth because you didn't have full detail beforehand.

Though with a bit of thought, I'm not entirely sure if you're calling for the giving of doubt, here. What you're mentioning may actually be worse than most current framing of the issue, some sort of doubling down anti-doubt thing. "They can't have murdered Mr. Green, they were busy with committing a rape/homicide two houses over!" Can't quite figure out if a person that doesn't read important shit before talking about it is actually better than one that does and indulges in potentially murderous information disclosure anyway. Like, at least with the latter you have some degree of assurance the person understands the magnitude of an issue even if they don't particularly give a shit about it...
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Playergamer

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump fires FBI Dir. Comey, sheneinighans abound
« Reply #6389 on: May 16, 2017, 05:34:43 pm »

is pretty actively working against our and our allies interests on a number of fronts.
i'm not saying the trump leak isn't a big deal.

but can we stop saying "our interests" please.

the interests of the American military-intelligence complex are not the interests of the American people. John Q. Public doesn't care about Syrian pipelines.
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