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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 4241623 times)

Sergarr

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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #1456 on: February 09, 2017, 02:31:13 pm »

Trump is a loose cannon who ignores Putin's "suggestions" i.e. orders, somebody plz help.

He's said that he wants to look at every single deal/treaty/alliance/diplomatic agreement that we are in and renegotiate them as he sees fit, ESPECIALLY ones done by Obama, so, not a surprise there. What seems surprising is that he has talked about arms reduction, however, he has swung the needle on both sides of that issue.
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TheBiggerFish

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #1457 on: February 09, 2017, 02:32:30 pm »

Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

And he's not getting any briefings?
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Sergarr

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #1458 on: February 09, 2017, 02:35:34 pm »

Trump is a loose cannon who ignores Putin's "suggestions" i.e. orders, somebody plz help.

He's said that he wants to look at every single deal/treaty/alliance/diplomatic agreement that we are in and renegotiate them as he sees fit, ESPECIALLY ones done by Obama, so, not a surprise there. What seems surprising is that he has talked about arms reduction, however, he has swung the needle on both sides of that issue.
But he ignored Putin's suggestion in a direct conversation! That's ridiculous, he's a Russian puppet, he should obey his master! Why isn't he doing that?!

Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

And he's not getting any briefings?
Evidently not, seeing as he didn't know about the New START's treaty's very existence before the phone call.

Fuuuuuuck.
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #1459 on: February 09, 2017, 02:37:46 pm »

Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

And he's not getting any briefings?

He's been getting one every morning, at least according to the Politico liveblogs daily schedule that they've been posting. Though apparently he had no idea what it was, thought he'd have been briefed on all of the treaty stuff.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #1460 on: February 09, 2017, 02:40:42 pm »

In a way, Trump's presidency will leave an interesting rhetorical legacy, in that I will never, ever have to listen to some ignorant fuck talk about how we need a wild card who hasn't been corrupted by experience ever again. I'll bash youngsters over the head with my cyber-cane when I'm in my 160's if I have to.
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #1461 on: February 09, 2017, 02:43:40 pm »

Actually, reading further down, he didn't get briefed by Russia experts for some reason. The State Department is currently understaffed with lots of lower positions unfilled, no idea if that contributed to it.

Seems logical that he'd want to hold off on discussing it until he learned more about the treaty anyway. And I'm betting Trump is likely asking 'why didn't you guys tell me about this?'
« Last Edit: February 09, 2017, 02:48:59 pm by smjjames »
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PTTG??

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #1462 on: February 09, 2017, 02:54:29 pm »

~5 deaths a year.

Terrorism, that is.

We must prioritize bigger threats than terrorism. Like improperly secured water heaters.
And cell phones while driving. And non-hypoallergenic-socks.

...source?

Source. Other Source.

Between 2002 and 2016, (before 9/11, laws and regulations were so different that comparisons aren't meaningful), there were 86 deaths in the United States due to terrorism. 5.7 per year.

This number doesn't include the Orlando shooting, which is not convincingly connected to Islam seeing as the shooter was a regular at the club, nor the San Bernardino shooting, which was very much workplace violence. If you want to broaden "terrorism" to include "acts of violence committed by people claiming to be muslim," then you'll have to include ~1% of all murders in the united states, or 150 per annum. In which case, "organized terrorism" is still a meaningless threat compared to the broader pretend category of "incidental terrorism." By that definition, there are 155.7 "terrorism" related deaths, and it's still less important than, for instance, children eating peanut butter next to someone with an alergy.*

But here's the thing, let's go back and include 9/11. The numbers change dramatically. 193 Deaths per year. Do you know how many soldiers commit suicide per day? 20.

That's not a typo. I checked it several times because I couldn't believe it. 20 a DAY. That's 7280 deaths per year! Two and a half 9/11s!

*Ok, that one's also over-reported. Estimates were as high as 200/annum, but it's actually much lower.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2017, 02:57:19 pm by PTTG?? »
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misko27

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #1463 on: February 09, 2017, 03:08:36 pm »

The US *IS* responsible for a very, VERY great deal of the terror going on in the Middle East.
I approve of the use of the word "terror" here instead of "terrorism". The argument that "America is the real terrorist" is old-hat and boring
To an extent, but the point was more than the US is at least as much of a real terrorist as the more peaceful bits of the stuff claiming the title of muslim brotherhood. You okay with them getting painted as a terrorist group on the whole, even the parts that aren't and have no meaningful association with one, then you've got a hell of a lot better grounds to be calling the US the same thing. US houses, has trained, and has supported folks that have engaged in straight up terrorism, even in recent years. Some of that is incidental or more part of less bloody political maneuverings or whatever -- your "terror" rather than "terrorism", more or less -- but other bits involve our personnel training death squads in SA and shit. Some of the stuff we've got up to ain't just mistakes and bad policy.
Ok, but a couple points:
First: I think calling the Muslim Brotherhood terrorists is a terrible idea. I'm just thinking about the language here.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

tl;dr: The phrase "State Terror" will always cause fewer arguments over definition and semantics than the phrase "State Terrorism", and we already have enough arguments as is. Everyone will still know what you mean if you use one phrase over the other (or even interchangably), but one of them causes fewer arguments. As an aside, the phrase "State-sponsered Terrorism" has a completely different meaning from either, even though it is also used interchangably.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2017, 03:16:45 pm by misko27 »
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #1464 on: February 09, 2017, 03:21:40 pm »

Of course including 9/11 would dramatically change the numbers, most terror attacks on US soil since then have had less than 30 total killed and injured.
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EnigmaticHat

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #1465 on: February 09, 2017, 03:23:45 pm »

9/11 was an oddity.  It only worked because our civilian aircraft were a bunch of highly powerful unsecured weapons flying around, and the government specifically told people to obey hijackers.  Even on the day of the attacks the trick stopped working once people realized what was going on.
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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #1466 on: February 09, 2017, 03:30:51 pm »

~5 deaths a year.

Terrorism, that is.

We must prioritize bigger threats than terrorism. Like improperly secured water heaters.
And cell phones while driving. And non-hypoallergenic-socks.

...source?

Source. Other Source.

Between 2002 and 2016, (before 9/11, laws and regulations were so different that comparisons aren't meaningful), there were 86 deaths in the United States due to terrorism. 5.7 per year.

This number doesn't include the Orlando shooting, which is not convincingly connected to Islam seeing as the shooter was a regular at the club, nor the San Bernardino shooting, which was very much workplace violence. If you want to broaden "terrorism" to include "acts of violence committed by people claiming to be muslim," then you'll have to include ~1% of all murders in the united states, or 150 per annum. In which case, "organized terrorism" is still a meaningless threat compared to the broader pretend category of "incidental terrorism." By that definition, there are 155.7 "terrorism" related deaths, and it's still less important than, for instance, children eating peanut butter next to someone with an alergy.*

But here's the thing, let's go back and include 9/11. The numbers change dramatically. 193 Deaths per year. Do you know how many soldiers commit suicide per day? 20.

That's not a typo. I checked it several times because I couldn't believe it. 20 a DAY. That's 7280 deaths per year! Two and a half 9/11s!

*Ok, that one's also over-reported. Estimates were as high as 200/annum, but it's actually much lower.

Oh, I thought you meant worldwide. In the US, yeah, that seems like a reasonable value.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #1467 on: February 09, 2017, 03:34:42 pm »

The clearest definition of terrorism I've ever heard (incidentally when discussing whether or not X-Com qualified as a terrorist organization) is the one that the line between guerilla war and terrorism is determined by "military purpose". Targeting the World Trade Center or nightclubs serves no military purpose, murdering soft targets has exactly zero effect on the ability of the attacked nation to fight. So that's terrorism. But if you attacked the state apparatus or the military, that's not terrorism (this coming with the understanding that not being terrorism doesn't make something not wrong).

In addition to this, and this is critical, are the identity of the target as well as the general trend of conduct by the group being assessed as terrorist/not terrorist. For example, if you attack a military base and the armory goes up in a massive explosion that takes out the family housing of the soldiers, that is only terrorism if this was the objective of the attack and not a consequence of getting in a firefight on a military base. However, since we can't always know even after the fact what the absolute target of hostile groups are, if they have a suspiciously consistent trend of attacking armed people only to incidentally turn and kill a bunch of preschoolers, probably an anti-preschool terrorist group.

This definition remains subjective and is not perfect, but it does not function on political hyperbole, makes no distinction as to what does or does not constitute a state action, and functions upon the analysis of physical consequences of violence. So if we're going to continue to walk down the road to hell by calling people terrorists, we should at least stick to something along these lines.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2017, 03:37:22 pm by MetalSlimeHunt »
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PTTG??

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #1468 on: February 09, 2017, 03:40:59 pm »

Of course including 9/11 would dramatically change the numbers, most terror attacks on US soil since then have had less than 30 total killed and injured.
9/11 was an oddity.  It only worked because our civilian aircraft were a bunch of highly powerful unsecured weapons flying around, and the government specifically told people to obey hijackers.  Even on the day of the attacks the trick stopped working once people realized what was going on.

I would add that even with 9/11 included, the per-year deathrate on American soil is still under 200, meaning that terrorism causes 0.0077% of all fatalities in the USA. IF you assume that 9/11 will happen about once every 15 years.

It's more like 2.19e-4%
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Antioch

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #1469 on: February 09, 2017, 04:51:42 pm »

Of course including 9/11 would dramatically change the numbers, most terror attacks on US soil since then have had less than 30 total killed and injured.
9/11 was an oddity.  It only worked because our civilian aircraft were a bunch of highly powerful unsecured weapons flying around, and the government specifically told people to obey hijackers.  Even on the day of the attacks the trick stopped working once people realized what was going on.

I would add that even with 9/11 included, the per-year deathrate on American soil is still under 200, meaning that terrorism causes 0.0077% of all fatalities in the USA. IF you assume that 9/11 will happen about once every 15 years.

It's more like 2.19e-4%

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