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Author Topic: Paranormal 25 - Game over! Town victory!  (Read 81179 times)

doll

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring - Part 2 - Darkness Without
« Reply #480 on: February 20, 2017, 01:18:45 am »

Part 2: Darkness Without
Herein I examine the case where all of the meta-clear players are taken as town - incidentally, I've known the role of every player in this list since Night 2.
Cases on every player in the game will be made during part 3.
These players, hereafter referred to as 'village players' are:
doll - observant guard
webadict - war vet
Tiruin - has 1 ATD, 2 nights to next ATD
TheDarkStar - agent operative, has an assassination bot and a small tech I'll leave unspecified for now
hector13 - observant guard

Things that that village players have told us about others:
Persus13 - survive goal

Remaining scum are therefore chosen from the pool of:
Leafsnail
Deus Asmoth
TheBiggerFish
4maskwolf
If Deus Asmoth is not scum, then Leafsnail is not scum, though he may still be scum-siding.
In such a case, clearing DA lifts the need to kill Leafsnail, and leaves a TBF-4mask scumteam.
This is a simple enough scenario that ATDing 4mask, lynching DA, techkilling TBF and lynching whichever of Leafsnail or 4mask isn't clear would solve the game.
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4maskwolf

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #481 on: February 20, 2017, 01:56:28 am »

We should probably get claims from Persus13, Leafsnail, and Deus Asmoth before we continue along.

Regardless, I'm actually going to suggest a slight modification to your plan: we lynch Deus Asmoth and nightkill Leafsnail.  If one of those two is scum (which I think is a high likelihood) then the town can win by simply lynching everyone who isn't a war veteran.  Eventually the scum have to suicide against one of the war vets and it results in a mutual kill and a win for the town.  If neither of them is scum we continue along with your plan replacing Leafsnail with TBF.

Speaking of which, if you're town, claimed war vet, and aren't (for some reason), now would be a very good time to stop lying.

TheBiggerFish

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #482 on: February 20, 2017, 02:05:49 am »

...Eh, I'd rather see Leafsnail go first.
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4maskwolf

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #483 on: February 20, 2017, 02:06:28 am »

...Eh, I'd rather see Leafsnail go first.
Do you mind explaining why or are you just going to leave that there?

TheBiggerFish

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #484 on: February 20, 2017, 02:09:05 am »

Well, he looks scummier, but I'm pretty sure that doll's plan or your plan is gonna happen anyway, so why bother explaining when I'm probably going to end up dead anyway?
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hector13

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #485 on: February 20, 2017, 02:13:54 am »

... 'cause by explaining you might end up not dead?

Kind of a fatalistic approach there, min. Certainly seeing DA's point re: your non-town-oriented mindset.
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hector13

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #486 on: February 20, 2017, 02:15:27 am »

EBWOP

Well, that and the legitimate possibility of you and DA being the scumteam. Your reticence to explain does lend more credence to that.
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hector13

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #487 on: February 20, 2017, 02:16:48 am »

EBWOP2

Though that scumteam may not necessarily work, given DA's voting habits D1 and D2...

I should probably not post this late.
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TheBiggerFish

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #488 on: February 20, 2017, 02:18:40 am »

*shrug*

I mean, it's a good plan.  Heck, I support it even though it's gonna kill me.  I just think Leafsnail is more likely to be scum than DA, and what with all the war vet claims out in the open, if the scum in this batch survives to night knowing they're gonna die, they might do a Taking You With Me sort of thing.
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TheBiggerFish

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #489 on: February 20, 2017, 02:19:54 am »

Really, I shouldn't be posting this late either.
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hector13

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #490 on: February 20, 2017, 02:21:11 am »

Well you haven't really explained why you think Leafsnail is more likely to be scum than DA.

I don't rightly know why I'm arguing this, they are my scum picks...

Frankly I'd prefer a DA lynch over a Leafsnail one. You should convince me why I'm wrong about that.
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TheBiggerFish

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #491 on: February 20, 2017, 02:30:47 am »

DA hasn't voted No Lynch inexplicably.
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doll

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 - Part 2.5 - Not yet A Really Long Post
« Reply #492 on: February 20, 2017, 05:38:11 am »

Part 2.5: Mechanical precursor to A really long post:
The actual scenario of each player:
Easily Confirmed:
TheDarkStar - will be truly clear in the mind of whoever he gives the small tech to after N3. Will be confirmed as having an Assassination bot after N3. - Agent Operative
hector13 - is truly clear in the minds of any who consider TheDarkStar to be truly clear - Observant Guard

Meta-Clear (i.e. not clear at all):
Tiruin - scum if Persus13 wouldn't give a survive result
doll
webadict
Persus13 - survive result if Tiruin is town

Not Meta-Clear:
4maskwolf
TheBiggerFish
Deus Asmoth - scum if Leafsnail wouldn't give a survive result
Leafsnail - survive result if DA is town

Survivors are the equivalent of dopps for most mechanical purposes (actually they're worse, since they could have killing items).
One thing in particular which is noteable about survivors is that they will show up as having a survive result, and cannot be found by ATD.
In contrast, War Vets will show up as having a kill result.
Since there are potentially unlimited survivors masquerading as war vets, as well as Leafsnail and Persus13, this is the largest single impediment to solving the setup today.
A tough Doppleganger would also cause some concern, but it would confirm it's existence once it kills a war vet.

Persus and Leafsnail have to claim.
The reason this is imperative is that of the 8 players with claimed roles, only doll and hector should be able to visit someone without a visible effect (dopp or war vet kill).
As such, Town Tiruin can effectively clear players by using an ATD on them. This is of particular importance once one scum is dead.

Town Deus Asmoth has the power to detect dopplegangers amongst the non-war-vet's performing the night kill.
Deus Asmoth can't be scumkilled if Deus Asmoth is scum.
Town Deus Asmoth being scumkilled would indicate that Leafsnail isn't a dopp.

I (doll) can kill myself during the night by visiting a war vet.
Unfortunately, this precludes my protecting another player.
Deus Asmoth can confirm my ability to do so by detecting my goal as 'protect'.

Delivering TDS and hector into the final three is a wincon for town.
Tiruin's death clears every player (who didn't visit the scumkill) who had an ATD on them during a night where there was one dopp and Tiruin survived.
DA's death clears every (non-kill) player who he inspected during a night where there was one dopp and DA survived.
If these players are non-visiting roles / 'survive' results they could still be survivors and thus the most dangerous type of scum.



Persus13
It is an absolute imperative that you claim.
This goes for Leafsnail as well, but much of that need is ameliorated by the fact that I've got no real problem with lynching him at present. I'll explain why in detail in Part 3.
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webadict

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #493 on: February 20, 2017, 07:19:10 am »

I am okay with a DA lynch, as well as a Leafsnail lynch.
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Leafsnail

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Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« Reply #494 on: February 20, 2017, 08:38:11 am »

PFP. I am a townie kook.

The game is easily winnable for the town as long as we don't do anything retarded like lynching a 'survive' result before the person who provided that result. Which is probably exactly why doll is trying to do that.

'Survivors are the equivalent of dopps for most mechanical purposes (actually they're worse, since they could have killing items).'
This is complete nonsense. Survivors only get one small tech, so the only killing item they can get is Holdout Blaster - which is only a problem if they're lynched! Doppelgangers on the other hand can have killing items if they're a Military Scientist or other lylo breakers such as a double vote, body double or mind control ray.

Lynching a claimed survivor - ie someone who is definitely scum or a survivor - is a good move because it's either fairly neutral (survivor lynched) or positive (scum lynched). Lynching a non-dopp on the small chance that they're a survivor is dumb. If they are a survivor the town is no closer to winning the game, if they are not the town is closer to losing the game.

Also TDS should give both of his techs to Tiruin. We should not tolerate them going to a completely unconfirmed player like doll, or him firing off his assassin bot without confirming that it's a tradeable alien tech.
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