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[Reelya]

Overall, the polls were off by < 1% of the national vote share for each candidate. Clinton won the popular vote by ~2%, and was 3.5% up in the polls. Swing states with very small margins settled this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2016
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
If you look at 538's predictions vs how the states actually went, the whole difference came down to just 4 states that didn't go as predicted. They did give him almost a 1 in 3 chance of winning, which is less than 50%, but not a whole lot less.

As for popular vote, which is good estimate of overall polling bias, they predicted Clinton to win 48.5% to Trump's 44.9%, with Gary Johnson on 5% and "other" 1.6%

What actually happened was Clinton won 48.0%, Trump won 45.9%, Gary Johnson got 3%, Jill Stein got 1%. So Clinton's estimate was within half a percent, but Trump actually picked up another whole 1%, mostly at the expense of Gary Johnson. But the national polls were within 1% of how many people voted for each candidate. It was just that close.

[MrRoboto75]

What's with this "inauguration envy"?

Because Trump needs to keep his ego inflated at all times.

[PTTG??]

Five Thirty Eight gave a fairly reasonable 30% chance to Trump. It's the news that said it was certain, which drove potential trump voters to the polls . Which was a major plot point in the 2003 film "Head of State."

[Reelya]

Possibly a lot of Johnson voters also switched to Trump at the end, because that was the one person who actually picked up substantially less votes than predicted.

[EnigmaticHat]

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/1/20/14335268/obamacare-more-popular-than-trump-poll
BTW a FOX News polls found that Obamacare is more popular than Trump. Just a nice irony there.

The real question is what happens when congress guts the ACA and Trump's poorer supporters have to make that choice in real life.  Do I like Trump, or did I like that health insurance I used to have...

[ChairmanPoo]

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/1/20/14335268/obamacare-more-popular-than-trump-poll
BTW a FOX News polls found that Obamacare is more popular than Trump. Just a nice irony there.

The real question is what happens when congress guts the ACA and Trump's poorer supporters have to make that choice in real life.  Do I like Trump, or did I like that health insurance I used to have...

Too late. They made that choice in real life months ago.

[Lord Shonus]

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/1/20/14335268/obamacare-more-popular-than-trump-poll
BTW a FOX News polls found that Obamacare is more popular than Trump. Just a nice irony there.

The real question is what happens when congress guts the ACA and Trump's poorer supporters have to make that choice in real life.  Do I like Trump, or did I like that health insurance I used to have...

Too late. They made that choice in real life months ago.

Not at all. If a large part of Trump's base suddenly begins to hate him because of consequences they did not anticipate (a lot of people hate the ACA not for what it is but for what they think it is, and there has been significant effort to mislead non-experts about it), he's a lame duck. Congresscritters come up for reelection every two years (all Representatives and a third of all Senators), and if your state or district is opposed to Trump, YOU are opposed to him because to do otherwise is political suicide.

[Flying Dice]

We've already seen an example of what happens here in KY. Bevin came in promising to strip back public healthcare and was voted into office by people who benefited from the stuff he intended to gut. They still haven't noticed. We had possibly the best implementation of the ACA on the state level in the country and it was completely trashed by the people who needed it the most because they didn't bother educating themselves and voted along ideological lines, mostly because of Bevin picking up the gay-bashing stick during the campaign.

[redwallzyl]

I hope the lesson America takes from this disaster is to stop fucking trusting the republican party. they aren't trying to help you their trying to get reelected and will say anything to make it happen.

[inteuniso]

I hope the lesson America takes from this disaster is to stop fucking trusting the republican partyblindly. they aren't trying to help you their trying to get reelected and will say anything to make it happen.

ftfy.

[Zanzetkuken The Great]

I hope the lesson America takes from this disaster is to stop fucking trusting the republican party. they aren't trying to help you their trying to get reelected and will say anything to make it happen.

And is this not also equally true of the Democratic Party?  By which I mean it is both false.  There are those in the Republican Party that want this, and there are also such people in the Democratic Party.  But there are also many in both parties that this is false for.  Tarring everyone with the same brush is extremely poor practice that only breaks down the ability for people to debate.

[EnigmaticHat]

This conversation is getting too broad to be usefully discussed.  At this point in the election cycle I'm sure everyone here knows where they stand on the two parties.

[redwallzyl]

I hope the lesson America takes from this disaster is to stop fucking trusting the republican partyblindly. they aren't trying to help you their trying to get reelected and will say anything to make it happen.

ftfy.

well yes in a general sense too but mostly the republics are guilty of it this election season. i don't think anyone on the left is going to become disillusioned to the same extent. this election has given me such high levels of stress that its effecting my health and i need to vent somewhere.

[Max™]

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

How much time do you guys spend on wall grafitti
Admittedly it's more constructive and cool than your other political endeavours for the most part

Would be great work if it was real, but some of the pixels, etc.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

[LoSboccacc]

well yes in a general sense too but mostly the republics are guilty of it this election season. i don't think anyone on the left is going to become disillusioned to the same extent. this election has given me such high levels of stress that its effecting my health and i need to vent somewhere.

lol you'd prefer the fascist left to the fascist right? I don't think you realize how bad both of them were.