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Author Topic: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: T+0  (Read 1393570 times)

Dostoevsky

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #15390 on: December 09, 2016, 10:30:07 pm »

For those interested comparing some of Trump's picks to historical folks, I'd suggest looking back at the early Reagan days - particularly Anne Gorsuch Burford and James G Watt. There's a book called Season of Spoils from the mid-80s if you want the long version (admittedly with spin, but also details you can't easily find elsewhere), but in short recent fears like the 'witch hunt' questionnaire sent to the Dept. of Energy are not new ideas.

Back in the early Reagan days those folks overreached and failed to fully achieve their efforts, but I feel like the media and public attention are different in ways that would make Trump's seemingly similar effort much easier.
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smjjames

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #15391 on: December 09, 2016, 10:41:37 pm »

Anyway, I looked at wiki and while some past Secretaries of State did have some business background (mostly plantations in the early years, a few newspapers), nothing even close to the scale of Big Business, not even contemporarily speaking. Most of them did have backgrounds in law and often had law practices.

According to Kellyanne Conway, Trump is also considering former Ford CEO Alan Mulally as Secretary of State. While he is a heck of a lot more palatable than Tillerson, seems like the guy would be a much better choice for one of the economic positions than Secretary of State.
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Sergarr

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #15392 on: December 09, 2016, 11:04:07 pm »

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Best-case by some measures, not by all. And "best-case" in the realistic sense, not the "pie in the sky" ideas like "everybody has the right to life and happiness" or shit like that.
Still makes communism a failed ideology.
RGHRAHRZRHRSHRBHR *gnashes teeth*

Capitalist countries have also failed. Do you know why Communist countries tend to be bad? Because they're the result of revolutions. The status quo has the nice and stable countries, and the revolutions have a SINGLE GREATLEADER with no balance of power. Failure or success of ideologies doesn't play into it.

...unless, of course, the revolution is anarchic like it's supposed to be...
And the only reason why all communist countries are a result of revolution is because communism is so dumb that it could only be enforced on people. No sane knowledgeable person would accept communism for their own country.

Besides, USA is, technically, itself a result of a revolution, too. Oh, and there's also France, which had French Revolution as its way of feudalism-capitalism transition. And, while they weren't perfectly "nice and stable" since then, seeing as their current government is the 5th Republic, they still managed to transition to democracy while keeping capitalism. Unlike with communist countries, where transition to democracy - real democracy - automatically means discarding communism and embracing capitalism. I wonder why...

Also, "anarchic" revolution? Would it result in an "anarchic" state, too? Because anarchist states are even more of failures than communist ones, and that's saying something.

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The big businesses are:
1. Making the externality of climate change
2. Lobbying our government to reduce restrictions - they're in our government
and that's just off the top of my head. They're "driving our economy", sure, but that's not all they're doing

also monopolies are capitalism breaking down, and big business is often a monopoly

also without regulation like the FDA, you'd have even more "mystery meat" aka toxic slurries in your food

it sells, right? that's all that matters to the business
So, your initial point was that USA was "Letting big business fuck everybody else over', but you've just outlined several ways in which USA, in fact, does not let "big business" fuck everybody else. A self-defeating argument, if I ever saw one.

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Because MURRICA has more.
And spread over vast barely inhabited territories, making their effective exploitation require building massive continental infrastructure. Meanwhile, Europe had access to not just its own massive resources, but to resources of three more continents, via colonial system. Which still hasn't helped them, because they wasted all these resources on fighting each other.

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America has had success, yes, but that's not because it's BEST NUMBER ONE MOST SUCCESSFUL GOVERNMENT EVERYTHING'S SWELL
1) Show me a government more successful that USA's one.
2) German scientists were definitely not the cause of American success.

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never said they were. I said that we don't have many nearby neighbors who'd like to kill us, so it's easy not to join a war.
That's because you've absorbed all of them and incorporated them into your United States. It's not like USA was just given all its territory from day 1, you know. If Americans in USA have not chosen their best government system that successfully prevented any competitor states from forming via massive territory purchase agreements and massive patriotism indoctrination of every citizen every day, there could've been three or four states on the territory of modern USA, and they would've undoubtedly waged a couple of wars on each other.

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* America starts a war for the purpose of profiting from it.
* Alternatively, America profits from an existing war.
* Your response: "It just goes to show that America is the best, because wars aren't unavoidable natural disasters."
wut
I don't actually remember if USA has started any war with the purpose of getting rich from it. Maybe with the exception of Philippines land grab, but that was in the same Gilded Age period when USA has almost gone bonkers.

Besides, the point is, USA can profit from wars, because they don't happen near it, because USA has done its homework on preventing any enemies from arising in its neighbourhood, while Europeans have not.

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There are a few reasons for that; poorer regions have more wars. This link says why they're poorer.

Also, again, USA is a COUNTRY.
Oh yeah, poorer regions have more wars, that's why there were almost no wars in extremely rich Europe oh wait

Also, again, USA is a country because it eliminated all competition early on. Europeans could've done the same, if they had a similarly powerful political system - but, alas, they were too mired in their monarchic feudal shit to realize that possibility. Even now they still are too busy squabbling with each other, instead of focusing their efforts at uniting and forming what would undoubtedly be a #1 world's super-power. A pity.

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Because they became a single country; there are multiple states, but they have an overarching government. Europe doesn't have that.
See, you've answered it yourself - USA government and the political system lying underneath it is the key to USA being a single country.

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Define number one. It is successful, yes. But the fact that I can use domestic products doesn't make it NUMBER ONE.
#1 is #1. Every economical and technological sphere you look at, USA is the best. Its GDP per capita is bigger than everybody else's, its military is bigger than everybody else's, its technological products dominate the world, its financial system is literally the foundation of world's entire economy.

I guess it's hard to see the greatness of USA from inside of it, but trust me, USA's influence is obvious even in the furthest reaches of the world. No other country has that.

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Would you say the same about people? Is it "loser talk" to say that maybe people don't succeed sometimes because they didn't get the same opportunities? (If so then GLRHRAZRHSBRBLE *grinding noise*)
I see you're starting to lose my line of thought. Here, look at the part that you've not noticed:
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Luck matters, but ability to use said luck matters much more
It's fairly obvious that when I say that "luck matters", I mean that "luck matters".

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Needs reference to a specific representative country - and if you're talking about the Middle East, that's the US's handiwork.
Sure, I even had two of them in mind. USSR and Russia.

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We've been successful, so we shouldn't change anything. Suuuure. It's pretty clear that, ferex, more regulations on carbon would be ubergood. Shouldn't we change that?

And anyway if our criterion for NUMBER ONE is "victory after victory", I bet you're longing for the Imperialist era, or for warfare. Conquer the world! (If that's not you, reconsider your criterion.)
I'm pretty sure that, if not for the Republican evil sabotaging your country with their evil pro-Putinist ways, there would be more regulations on carbon coming up. If they didn't exist as they are, the obstructionist pro-monopolist warmongers, they would probably be coming 8 years ago, or maybe even 16.

And by "victory", I didn't mean just a military victory. Economical victory counts, too. Technological, social - things like that are victories, too. Really, what I meant was "repeated success". USA has had it, like no others.

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Those were actually state capitalism. So they weren't even communism.
We are not talking about the utopia version of communism, obviously.

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Why do wars happen? Because people are greedy, because people hate. It's not a failure of government.
You say that like Americans are not people. Wars can be prevented, and they can be facilitated. Governments take a big part in this activity, as seen in Cold War, where many wars were started simply because of the world-wide conflict of ideologies, with sides getting massive financial support from USA/USSR. After Cold War was over, many wars were then prevented or limited in their scale by USA acting an an ultimate arbiter of peace.

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Because of the propaganda machine, of course.
That doesn't explain why there are still regulations in place, then.

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And it's a driving force for both of them, too. We might be able to unfuck things, who knows?
USA, driving force of conflicts? Are you serious? Outside of Republican-induced bouts of stupid invasions, USA has pretty much single-handedly established a world-wide era of relative peace never seen before in history. As for global warming... China, India, pretty much every other industrializing country.

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...I guess you're right... it is pretty good on that front.

Wait a second, "Pax Americana"? Does that extend to the Middle East?
Pretty sure that no, it doesn't. Middle East is pretty much doomed to war with itself for the foreseeable future, anyway, mostly because they've just became too radicalized, thanks to Saudi Arabia. That's one of the few foreign policy mistakes that USA did.

And, unsurprisingly enough, Republicans are the main supporters of alliance between USA and Saudi Arabia.

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It's not the worst... but in terms of foreign policy it's been bad, it's been lagging behind Europe in many QoL measures... I think we could make things a lot better.
Europe could afford so many QoL measures because it mostly relied on USA to take care of the "capital growth" part since the end of WW2 and the Marshall plan. Also, USA has invested quite a lot of funds into making Western Europe a very high QoL place, in part because it was needed to prevent communist revolutions from happening there, in part because it was a good way to demonstrate to communist countries' citizens just how bad their economy was.
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Descan

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #15393 on: December 09, 2016, 11:13:01 pm »

"No sane people would accept communism except by revolution."

Nepal.
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Rockphed

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #15394 on: December 09, 2016, 11:13:38 pm »

For those interested comparing some of Trump's picks to historical folks, I'd suggest looking back at the early Reagan days - particularly Anne Gorsuch Burford and James G Watt. There's a book called Season of Spoils from the mid-80s if you want the long version (admittedly with spin, but also details you can't easily find elsewhere), but in short recent fears like the 'witch hunt' questionnaire sent to the Dept. of Energy are not new ideas.

Back in the early Reagan days those folks overreached and failed to fully achieve their efforts, but I feel like the media and public attention are different in ways that would make Trump's seemingly similar effort much easier.

Well, Reagan had democratic majorities in the House and possibly senate for his entire term.  It wasn't until 1994 that Republicans gained a majority in both houses of congress (which I blame for the level-headed spending during the late 90s more than I credit Clinton.)  I just hope that somebody balances the federal budget soon.  Deficit spending leads directly to inflation.


I was talking about Europe throughout all of its history, not any particular conflict. Besides, there's no reason why it couldn't have happened in USA. And it actually did - once, and it was called "American Civil War". But - only once, over multiple centuries, because American political system is just that good.

There was also the "Toledo War", between Ohio and Michigan over a 60 mile by 300 mile triangle.  And numerous small scale conflicts leading up to the civil war.  And the hundreds of wars fought with the hostile (or at least painted as hostile by the victors) natives.

No it is me who has satanic powers...

Everytime I say I hope something bad happens to America...

It happens.

It's a self-fulfilling prophecy at this point.

Anti-environmental sentiments, the guy who's going to be there seems more extreme than his predecessors under Republican Presidents, pro-oil (though this is standard Republican fare, his labor secretary, bankers in his economic cabinet, Sen. Sessions......

And just about everything about Trump.....

I don't know how the whole slate compares to past cabinets, but would be interesting to compare previous Republican cabinets.

Yeah I know... America is screwed now.

Everyone who suggested to give Trump a chance is probably eating crow as Trump is entirely against having anyone give him a chance and immediately and constantly sabatages himself... Before he even gets into office.

He is probably the only president who managed to be a bad president before he officially became president.

While still thinking that Trump is scum made human, I am slightly optimistic that he might fulfill the campaign promises that I liked and ignore the ones that are either really stupid or patently illegal.  Or he might drag the US into war with China before he gets inaugurated.  Nobody wins that war: China has nukes.
« Last Edit: December 09, 2016, 11:19:56 pm by Rockphed »
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Neonivek

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #15395 on: December 09, 2016, 11:24:08 pm »

No it is me who has satanic powers...

Everytime I say I hope something bad happens to America...

It happens.
Maybe you've just discovered the folly in life of wishing pain and unpleasantness on the lives of others. I mean in practice it's kinda hard to defend you here, because you are basically admitting that you wanted terrible things to happen, and they happened; and I note a distinct lack of feeling bad about what happened, merely impressed at your predictive power. Does this not in practice make you a cruel or at least deeply indifferent person? Either you don't think Trump is as bad as you say or you really don't care

To admit you weren't here from the start and I cant rag on you for not knowing EVERY post I've made in this thread. But I have expressed feeling bad about it.

and my wanting terrible things to happen to America was less malice... and more "No one is going to learn anything unless things go particularly unwell" as well as "Wow, what terrible thing would it be if things did go extremely well... That might even be worse then nothing happening at all"

Goodness... >_< I don't want another person like Trump ever running for office again...

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« Last Edit: December 09, 2016, 11:27:53 pm by Neonivek »
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Dostoevsky

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #15396 on: December 09, 2016, 11:26:07 pm »

Well, Reagan had democratic majorities in the House and possibly senate for his entire term.  It wasn't until 1994 that Republicans gained a majority in both houses of congress (which I blame for the level-headed spending during the late 90s more than I credit Clinton.)  I just hope that somebody balances the federal budget soon.  Deficit spending leads directly to inflation.

As the Gorsuch obit I linked noted, back then both Ds and Rs were pretty irate with the EPA head's actions. Of course, back then environmentalism wasn't quite so partisan an issue as it is today.

As to budget, it will be interesting to see what Republicans do now that they can a) force discretionary spending cuts since Dems will have the same challenge Rs did in a shutdown fight, and b) force mandatory spending cuts and revenue changes through reconciliation legislation, which only needs 50 votes.

The Republican-led legislative and executive branches combined have the legislative tools they need to change mandatory spending and the tax code, even with zero Democratic support. I expect they'll be able to strongarm the 8-ish Senate Democrats needed to pass omnibus appropriations bills with heavy cuts to non-defense discretionary spending.

Thus, the question is: will they use this power to do the thing many of them have said is one of their most important priorities? Personally, I'm doubtful they'll use that power for anything more than cutting the (often relatively small) programs they dislike while simultaneously lowering revenues. But I'm a pretty cynical person.
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Rockphed

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #15397 on: December 10, 2016, 12:00:39 am »

Well, Reagan had democratic majorities in the House and possibly senate for his entire term.  It wasn't until 1994 that Republicans gained a majority in both houses of congress (which I blame for the level-headed spending during the late 90s more than I credit Clinton.)  I just hope that somebody balances the federal budget soon.  Deficit spending leads directly to inflation.

As the Gorsuch obit I linked noted, back then both Ds and Rs were pretty irate with the EPA head's actions. Of course, back then environmentalism wasn't quite so partisan an issue as it is today.

As to budget, it will be interesting to see what Republicans do now that they can a) force discretionary spending cuts since Dems will have the same challenge Rs did in a shutdown fight, and b) force mandatory spending cuts and revenue changes through reconciliation legislation, which only needs 50 votes.

The Republican-led legislative and executive branches combined have the legislative tools they need to change mandatory spending and the tax code, even with zero Democratic support. I expect they'll be able to strongarm the 8-ish Senate Democrats needed to pass omnibus appropriations bills with heavy cuts to non-defense discretionary spending.

Thus, the question is: will they use this power to do the thing many of them have said is one of their most important priorities? Personally, I'm doubtful they'll use that power for anything more than cutting the (often relatively small) programs they dislike while simultaneously lowering revenues. But I'm a pretty cynical person.

Well, considering how much failure theatre the Republicans in congress engages in during the last 2 years, I doubt they will suddenly turn in to budget cutting warriors on January 20th.  Maybe they will actually pass a budget.

And somebody posted a bar graph of the US debt for the last 50 years.  Can somebody scrounge that up in a log-y scaled version?  Aside from GWB years being obviously less budget friendly than Clinton years and Obama years being about as bad as the worst, earlier presidents' tenures get lost in being so much smaller than the last 2 to be able to tell what is going on.  Another option is to show debt as a function of GDP
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GreatJustice

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #15398 on: December 10, 2016, 12:08:28 am »

When Sergarr was a Putinist it was at least a somewhat unique perspective. If I wanted irrational praise for the Democratic Party Establishment I could already go to Mainiac.

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1) Show me a government more successful that USA's one.
2) German scientists were definitely not the cause of American success.

I'm not going to argue that, when (most) American policies are contrasted with European policies, the American policies are better (though the exceptions are big ass exceptions). However, the US has had a few advantages that basically came down to luck:

* No serfdom, no feudalism, no vast number of disenfranchised natives. Those things fucked over places like Mexico and Nicaragua since there's perpetual disputed land claims between landowners and their tenants. In the US, land more or less came as a "first come first serve" sort of deal since there weren't enough natives to justify that kind of system.

* Two World Wars without any continental fighting. This really can't be overstated. After WW2, basically every country that could compete with the US had either had its industry leveled or was run by Communists. The US won out by being the last great power standing more than anything else.

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USA, driving force of conflicts? Are you serious? Outside of Republican-induced bouts of stupid invasions, USA has pretty much single-handedly established a world-wide era of relative peace never seen before in history. As for global warming... China, India, pretty much every other industrializing country.

Nearly every bad thing in the long run that has happened in the Middle East since 1952 or so has been pretty much entirely due to American intervention. We can give the Israel-Palestine conflict a pass, but problems with Iran, the rise of radical Islamists, etc can be pretty easily traced back to short sighted decisions made by the US government to tamper with Middle Eastern countries for shady reasons. Most (albeit not all) conflicts south of Mexico can be put on American interventions as well.

Peace in Europe and East Asia isn't caused by fear of the US Navy, it's because international trade has been going well recently. China may hate Japan, but they aren't going to get into a war that could destroy their economic growth unless something incredible happens. Whatever the British may think of the EU, the odds of them deciding to reclaim Calais even if the US allowed it are basically zero.

Just compare with the 19th century. No overwhelming superpower like the US, but if you write off wars of imperialism in the colonies (which we basically are doing anyway if we ignore non-developed countries today) then wars were very, very rare and quite limited in scope. After Napoleon you basically have a few revolutions, the German wars of reunification, the American Civil War, the Crimean War (which was the biggest one and was still very limited) and the Franco-Prussian war. WW1 alone blows all of those out of the water.
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Neonivek

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #15399 on: December 10, 2016, 12:10:32 am »

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1) Show me a government more successful that USA's one.

So a government with more responsible spending, less political deadlock, and flows more easily then the USA?

Hmmm... interesting...
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Dozebôm Lolumzalìs

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #15400 on: December 10, 2016, 12:16:40 am »

Quote
1) Show me a government more successful that USA's one.

So a government with more responsible spending, less political deadlock, and flows more easily then the USA?

Hmmm... interesting...

Heh.

Serg, I had a whole reply written out, but my browser crashed. It's probably better for me to sleep on it and reply tomorrow, anyway.
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Rockphed

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #15401 on: December 10, 2016, 12:18:06 am »

Quote
1) Show me a government more successful that USA's one.

So a government with more responsible spending, less political deadlock, and flows more easily then the USA?

Hmmm... interesting...

Some argue that the political deadlock is a feature, not a bug.  It keeps congress from going off and doing things all willy-nilly without thinking about them.  Of course when you want to get rid of the things your opponents did all willy-nilly it becomes annoying and a pain.  If only the people I liked were always in power!  Then they could do whatever I wanted them to do without having to worry about when the other guys come back in to power.

Hey, look!  We just won historical margins in both houses and control the presidency!  Now is a perfect time to get rid of all the things that allow our opponents to slow us down.  They can obviously never gain power again!

...

At some point that transitioned from a reasonable thought to hyper-partisan mockery of the last 20 years of American politics.  I don't know how.
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Neonivek

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #15402 on: December 10, 2016, 12:21:06 am »

So basically the question is unanswerable.
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Dozebôm Lolumzalìs

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #15403 on: December 10, 2016, 12:42:16 am »

How would you even rank countries objectively, anyway? America's... by some measures medium, by some low, by some very high. Which ones matter most? That's largely down to what you value.
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Dostoevsky

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: Post-Apocalypse
« Reply #15404 on: December 10, 2016, 12:46:22 am »

As a Democratic-leaning individual who was not-at-all happy when Reid nuked part of the filibuster back in 2013, I'm a pretty firm believer in the deadlock being a feature. Reid's exit interview with Politico was kind of telling, in my opinion, that he seems to be a fellow doesn't really care about the means so much as the ends. Not a great stance for long-term governance.

McConnell, meanwhile, has been a bit mum on his filibuster plans but there seem to be enough other Republicans who are institutionalists to make it a tough vote if McConnell wanted to go that far. Not an equivalent vote, but there look to be more Rs opposed to ending the filibuster than there were Ds willing to vote against Reid's 'mini-nuke'.

Back to the point, the political slowdown has had some consequences as the world has 'sped up' with more modern technology, but the risks of potentially rewriting slews of fundamental laws back-and-forth every few years would make things somewhat untenable (see: Republicans already realizing that for as crummy as the ACA can be, 'repeal and replace' could easily cause significant collateral damage). At least, that's my feeling.

Edit: oh, and as to debt levels there are a bunch of different types of graphs that frame them in various ways out there. Deficit as a percentage of GDP is rather interesting, though I'm not sure how useful it is. Both world wars are huge spikes compared to the Great Recession, which in turn was a higher deficit ratio than the Great Depression. Heck, Reagan ran a higher deficit-to-GDP ratio than mid-30s FDR.

I'd argue there are too many factors at play (inflation/deflation, interest rates, comparative security of US debt to other investments, need for government stimulus) to give an easy answer to what rate or how much is too much. But it does seem to be the case that if we don't start dealing with it now, the percentage of the U.S. budget that goes to just paying interest on our debt might be getting pretty high before long - the link goes to 2020, but CBO has concerns about the late 2020s.
« Last Edit: December 10, 2016, 01:01:53 am by Dostoevsky »
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