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[Codician]

A month ago, yes. And then they suddenly got really really close.

Hillary's still about 6% up. That's not very close.

[smjjames]

Well, in a range between 2% and 4% according to 538, but we shall see tonight.

[Rolan7]

Jeez that's sad, I thought she had more of the popular vote.  They're... probably mostly dedicated Republicans and people who hate Hillary.  I have to believe that.

538's only giving her 71% odds of winning.  That's a margin, but not comfortably large...  Maybe I've played too much DND, but I'd rather not roll a d20 that kills my character on 1-6.  Not without finding every possible advantage and alternative first.

Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd actually existing are millions to one.
But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.

[Frumple]

Regardless, something more along the lines of a 10% at the end of the day would be a nice and solid "knock it off" to the GOP. US folks, if you're reading and haven't done it yet, get out and vote.

[smjjames]

Jeez that's sad, I thought she had more of the popular vote.  They're... probably mostly dedicated Republicans and people who hate Hillary.  I have to believe that.

538's only giving her 71% odds of winning.  That's a margin, but not comfortably large...  Maybe I've played too much DND, but I'd rather not roll a d20 that kills my character on 1-6.  Not without finding every possible advantage and alternative first.

Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd actually existing are millions to one.
But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.

I have a better one:

NEVER tell me the odds!

[Neonivek]

Mind you even if Hillary wins the popular vote, the electoral college can still elect Trump anyway.

Actually... if the Electoral College was DEAD SET against Hillary... How many seats would she have to earn in order to guarantee that she wins?

PFT and people forget that the USA is a Republic (Mind you a Republic that things and wishes to be a democracy)

Also what percent of a state would have to vote for Hillary in order to not be screwed over by district lines? (since apperantly 71% is not enough...)

[Frumple]

... 270. Same as anyone. That number's not going to change.

And yes, it's technically not impossible clinton wins the popular vote but loses the EC. Just rather staggeringly unlikely.

[Dozebôm Lolumzalěs]

"Vote tomorrow, Wisconsin!" --an ad I saw on a liberal-leaning site

What. The. Fuck.

[Neonivek]

... 270. Same as anyone. That number's not going to change.

And yes, it's technically not impossible clinton wins the popular vote but loses the EC. Just rather staggeringly unlikely.

It is staggeringly unlikely because MOST members of the Electoral college do not vote against the popular vote (sort of... Ignoring Gerryrigging... Which has reached the state of being outright cheating... Seriously USA fix your district laws)

Since 20 states are basically allowed to vote for whoever they want regardless of the actual election results. (And... Oddly... Who they vote for has sometimes been odd... Including a few times the vote has been entirely wasted)

Hence why I said "Dead set" as in ALL the 20 people who are allowed to vote against the people decided to.

[Frumple]

... gerrymandering, neo. Gerryrigging is jury rigging misspelled, and something a bit different.

Any case, she'd still need 270 votes, it'd just have been 290 if it weren't for the faithless electors, assuming none of them were being faithless in her favor.

[Lord Shonus]

The polling place was busy as hell for 10:30. I go at about the same time every year because it is usually empty at that time (all prework voters are gone, lunchtime voters aren't in yet, so usually it is just a handful of senior citizens), but not this year. There were a few mechanical problems with the printers on the machines, but nothing major.

[Neonivek]

Sorry not 20 people (I mistaken believed, apperantly, that one person controls ALL the votes for their entire state)... The 20 states.

[smjjames]

... gerrymandering, neo. Gerryrigging is jury rigging misspelled, and something a bit different.

Any case, she'd still need 270 votes, it'd just have been 290 if it weren't for the faithless electors, assuming none of them were being faithless in her favor.

I think he meant the combination of gerrymandering and rigging via voter suppression.

And yeah, she'd just need 270, and theres very good chance that she'll have well above 270, enough for a few faithless electors in protest to not affect things.

[Frumple]

Sorry not 20 people (I mistaken believed, apperantly, that one person controls ALL the votes for their entire state)... The 20 states.

Ah. Hell if I know, then. I'm not on enough drugs to think there's enough of a chance that a majority (or more than two or three at most) of electors turn faithless in 20 states to be worth crunching the numbers for. Better question in a scenario like that is how many of them would end up lynched or shot by the next morning, really.

[Codician]

3%.

Still really not close. That's a large margin for Hillary. Better to be safe and warm in the house than standing in a freezing cold line all night.