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[smjjames]

Actually, it looks like Utah is the only one actually asking his name. Maybe he'll only be relevant in Utah, maybe not, we'll only know for sure come November 8th.

Just shows how messy things are going to be on Election Day.

[Folly]

CNN has been showing commercials all day for their documentary on Michelle Obama's mission to educate young girls around the world. I know absolutely nothing about her or her work, but I don't like her smile, so I'm going to come here and talk shit about her.
Brainwashing young children into conforming to your own world view is NOT a praiseworthy legacy! Michelle needs to stop abusing her power by forcing helpless children to believe whatever insane theology she subscribes to! This type of reckless indoctrination is exactly what is destroying our society! We must stand up to the establishment and free the children from this oppressive matriarchy! Down with Fembama! Freeeeeedoooooooom!!!

[Egan_BW]

argh, why do you have to test my poe-sensors like that... that smarts

[mainiac]

Oh hey, Trump wants to jail Clinton's lawyers.  We are now rapidly passing Putin levels and now entering the communist dictatorship level of discourse.  Any who question your commitment to truth and justice are traitors and will have charges levied against them.

The day McMullin got underway, betting averages on Trump winning Utah dropped a full 20%. I've been following this average of the betting sites]

A 25% chance of Clinton winning Utah strikes me as way too high.

[alway]

A 25% chance of Clinton winning Utah strikes me as way too high.

I dunno...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/12/donald-trump-women-new-sexual-harassment-stories
Might also be too low.

[mainiac]

Clinton's best ever poll in Utah was 35%.  If Trump loses all support in Utah those votes probably aren't going to Clinton, they are probably going to McMuffin or Johnson.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Anything is possible when you smell like 2016. Practically speaking, Trump will never lose all support in Utah, he'll just keep waffling in the 20s with Ronald McMahn and Johnson feasting on the protest vote 15%-20% each. That does open a surprisingly practical door for a Clinton victory.

[smjjames]

Oh hey, Trump wants to jail Clinton's lawyers.  We are now rapidly passing Putin levels and now entering the communist dictatorship level of discourse.  Any who question your commitment to truth and justice are traitors and will have charges levied against them.

Anybody know if it's even possible to charge them with anything? Legally speaking. I could see him going after them over ethical violations, but at best, they'd just be disbarred.

The decision to advise her to delete the emails is ethically questionable, I agree with that, but charging them with the crime of 'doing their job as a lawyer' makes as much sense as charging someone for defending a murderer.

Also, Trump is considering litigating news organizations for the sex tapes, etc. Were it anybody else, it might seem like a normal reaction, but this is Trump we're talking about.

A 25% chance of Clinton winning Utah strikes me as way too high.

I dunno...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/12/donald-trump-women-new-sexual-harassment-stories
Might also be too low.

Yeah, things just keep coming out....

Pretty strange how he and Bill compare.....

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Donald and Bill are actually timeclones like me and MZ, it all comes together.

[mainiac]

Anything is possible when you smell like 2016. Practically speaking, Trump will never lose all support in Utah, he'll just keep waffling in the 20s with Ronald McMahn and Johnson feasting on the protest vote 15%-20% each. That does open a surprisingly practical door for a Clinton victory.

Four way ties dont happen very much in first past the post.  Way less then 25% odds.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

"don't happen very much"

Do you remember what year it is?

[smjjames]

Clinton's best ever poll in Utah was 35%.  If Trump loses all support in Utah those votes probably aren't going to Clinton, they are probably going to McMuffin or Johnson.

Anything is possible when you smell like 2016. Practically speaking, Trump will never lose all support in Utah, he'll just keep waffling in the 20s with Ronald McMahn and Johnson feasting on the protest vote 15%-20% each. That does open a surprisingly practical door for a Clinton victory.

Except that the vote split is going to cut both ways. How much of the cut is from which party (even to a pseudo-thirdparty like McMullin) is going to differ by state. Because it's 2016, that split is likely to be very unpredictable.

Anything is possible when you smell like 2016. Practically speaking, Trump will never lose all support in Utah, he'll just keep waffling in the 20s with Ronald McMahn and Johnson feasting on the protest vote 15%-20% each. That does open a surprisingly practical door for a Clinton victory.

Four way ties dont happen very much in first past the post.  Way less then 25% odds.

But four way splits have happened in US history. Not in recent history though, at least not to a significant degree. You have to go a bit over a hundred years ago to find the most recent one. Three way races are a bit more common. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1912

Before that: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1860

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1836 is more of an unusual outlier because the whigs tried to run four candidates.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1832 Was just wierd I guess, at least in modern terms.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1824 is when we were, for a brief time, a single party system.

[RedKing]

"don't happen very much"

Do you remember what year it is?

The year that Current Year Man totally has a point.

[mainiac]

In any of those years did a candidate win any states with 35% of the vote?

It may be current year but strategic voting still exists.  Unless McMuffins and Johnsons are exactly tied (and they aren't) one of them is going to consolidate all the "I am conservative but dont like Trump" vote.

[smjjames]

I was trying to make the point though is that while rare, they have happened. Though 1836 wouldn't really count as a four way because one party tried to do sheneinighans and seem to have ended up splitting the whig vote between them.

In any of those years did a candidate win any states with 35% of the vote?

It may be current year but strategic voting still exists.  Unless McMuffins and Johnsons are exactly tied (and they aren't) one of them is going to consolidate all the "I am conservative but dont like Trump" vote.

I'll look. Though a quick look at 1824 shows Henry Clay got Ohio with like 38%

edit: Roosevelt (progressive party, a breakoff of the republican party) got 41% and won in California. Not sure what point you're trying to make maniac. Actually, 1912 was more of a three-way than a four way. edit2: Roosevelt won Pennsylvania with 36%.