Re: Kefka music, ok, if Trump has been doing this the whole time to scorched earth the republican party, forcing it to take a long hard look at itself and actually try to work
towards a goal, rather than
against everything, leading to the next primary actually offering a strong and capable party of challengers for him to battle, it would be acceptable.
There is no fucking way Trump is the sort of long-term planner and deep thinker it would take to do this, honestly using terms like "planning" and "thinking" with him is verging on abuse of language itself.
The truth has a liberal bias. Just look at global warming.
*endlessly amused by this*
There's definitely a "floor" of how badly a candidate for either major party can do in a general election, because a lot of people will vote for their party no matter what, especially with a Supreme Court seat explicitly on the line. If a video of Trump beating a kitten to death with a shoe comes out we may be able to find out exactly what that floor is.
That's true, but Reagan proved that at least in terms of electoral votes, that floor is incredibly low. I'd want to call it multiple levels of floor. There's the first layer, which is just undecideds, then the independents which lean in one direction, then the mild partisans, then the regular people, etc. Nate Silver wrote about what the bottom falling out would look like here, in an article written in the 24 hours after Trump Tapes. In particular, I draw attention to thisIf Trump gets stuck at 40 percent of the vote, you could wind up with an outcome like Clinton 51 percent, Trump 40 percent, Gary Johnson 7 percent, Jill Stein and others 2 percent, or something of that nature. That is, a double-digit win for Clinton, which could potentially yield somewhere around 400 votes for her in the Electoral College, and make states as exotic as Texas and Alaska competitive.
Again 40% is not terrible, but it's enough that Trump gets swept.
I like that examination strictly because that is the first time Texas has ever been called exotic. Literally ever, not just this election, but as long as it has existed.
It feels nice. In some way, I could be
exotic. Thanks Nate, thate.