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Author Topic: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: T+0  (Read 1392181 times)

Flying Dice

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« Last Edit: September 10, 2016, 06:10:55 pm by Flying Dice »
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Max™

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3856 on: September 10, 2016, 06:50:51 pm »

Coal kills people every year, nuclear power has killed a handful in the entire time we've been making the plants. I hate that the immediate link people put is "nuclear=fuckhuge thermonuclear fireball" instead of "making steam with hot rocks" though, and as was noted above: it isn't viable because of all the "fuckhuge thermonuclear fireball" lobbies trying to scare people while the "we're just boiling water, yo" people aren't jumping up and down screaming about it, and they couldn't use honesty to scare people into supporting them anyways, because there is nothing as scary as a well constructed lie.
As for keeping the lights on, good luck. If we kick off collapse conditions we will drown in externalities and related factors no matter how many watts we allegedly have. You can't eat coal. Or maintain economic stability for the average person. Or deal with extreme droughts. Or hypercanes and polar vortexes. Or stop people from electing strongmen to fight the scary terrorists when the real problem is something we don't want to think about.

Grinds my fucking gears, I'll tell you what. If there's any good side to all of this, it's that if people don't listen I'll at least get to see all the entitled ignorant fatasses of the world turn around and moan about how "science was supposed to fix this" after they voted for people who denied climate change for 70 years or said God would protect us from ourselves before the real party starts.
Unmentioned consideration: if you live to see any noticeable effects that may occur according to the anthropogenic CO2 hypothesis, you'll be like 100~200 years old at a minimum, assuming you're in your 30's now. The real doom and gloom "OMG FORGET CAT 6, WE'RE GONNA NEED CAT 7 FOR THESE ULTRACANES" nonsense doesn't even show up in the IPCC reports, and those include really long term projections for possible impacts out to like 2399 as I recall? It's been a while since I read them though, but you aren't getting "hypercanes and polar vortex" doom mongering from them, though worrying about the polar vortex is like worrying about the jet stream, isn't it? I mean, that has nothing to do with any sort of influence we could have short of like, installing gigantic sunshields and mirrors to alter the positions of the polar and tropical zones?


Which ties back into the election: don't trust anyone who wants to keep you scared and uninformed.

Sadly "things aren't bad, actually they're pretty good, and I can make them better" isn't as good of a slogan as "we are totally fucked unless you pick me, cause I am the best at unfucking shit, so if you don't want your shit fucked, pick me, the best shitfucker" apparently.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3857 on: September 10, 2016, 07:11:26 pm »

Unmentioned consideration: if you live to see any noticeable effects that may occur according to the anthropogenic CO2 hypothesis, you'll be like 100~200 years old at a minimum, assuming you're in your 30's now. The real doom and gloom "OMG FORGET CAT 6, WE'RE GONNA NEED CAT 7 FOR THESE ULTRACANES" nonsense doesn't even show up in the IPCC reports, and those include really long term projections for possible impacts out to like 2399 as I recall? It's been a while since I read them though, but you aren't getting "hypercanes and polar vortex" doom mongering from them, though worrying about the polar vortex is like worrying about the jet stream, isn't it? I mean, that has nothing to do with any sort of influence we could have short of like, installing gigantic sunshields and mirrors to alter the positions of the polar and tropical zones?
Translation: I think I am above consequences, surely only my descendants will have to deal with it.

Dude, forget the fucking IPCC report if you really distrust them so badly. We had polar vortex events twice over the past two years that were unheard of. California has been in "extreme drought" for so long it is doesn't make the news unless their water train is disrupted. This past year is the hottest on record, and the previous hottest year has updated around 15 times all in the last 20 years. We have hurricanes at accelerated frequency.

Is this where we are now? That prior data is now dismissible as not being in yet? Fuck's sake. It does not take hundreds of years for heat to accumulate in the atmosphere! It definitely didn't take hundreds of years to bring the CO2 ppm 100 above the historical baseline!

Sunshields? Are you completely in bad faith? How about controlling our emissions? How about international cooperation on a carbon budget? How about subsidizing renewable energy and sustainable markets instead of continuing to massively subsidize fossil fuels and cancerous growth models?

How about anything? Is fucking anything good, can we agree on that shit? Do anything!? 

Manhattan will fall beneath the waves and people will still be saying "the science isn't in", "CO2 hypothesis", "not manmade", "global warming is a good thing", "overpopulation is a myth" and all the other bullshit, bullshit, bullshit rationalization of what has been an obvious existential threat to humanity and life on Earth as we know it for as long as almost everybody alive now has been around.
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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3858 on: September 10, 2016, 07:45:17 pm »

Sunshields? Are you completely in bad faith? How about controlling our emissions? How about international cooperation on a carbon budget? How about subsidizing renewable energy and sustainable markets instead of continuing to massively subsidize fossil fuels and cancerous growth models?

I think we have to consider sunshades at this point.
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Dorsidwarf

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3859 on: September 10, 2016, 08:04:57 pm »

Sunshields? Are you completely in bad faith? How about controlling our emissions? How about international cooperation on a carbon budget? How about subsidizing renewable energy and sustainable markets instead of continuing to massively subsidize fossil fuels and cancerous growth models?

I think we have to consider sunshades at this point.

We have to consider everything, so that we can reject the impractical. Kessler Syndrome is not a goal, after all.
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Flying Dice

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3860 on: September 10, 2016, 08:06:18 pm »

Sunshields? Are you completely in bad faith? How about controlling our emissions? How about international cooperation on a carbon budget? How about subsidizing renewable energy and sustainable markets instead of continuing to massively subsidize fossil fuels and cancerous growth models?

I think we have to consider sunshades at this point.

Or sunglasses so that we can make CSI: Miami references as the world burns.
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saigo

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3861 on: September 10, 2016, 08:12:55 pm »

Manhattan will fall beneath the waves and people will still be saying "the science isn't in", "CO2 hypothesis", "not manmade", "global warming is a good thing", "overpopulation is a myth" and all the other bullshit, bullshit, bullshit rationalization of what has been an obvious existential threat to humanity and life on Earth as we know it for as long as almost everybody alive now has been around.
It's very difficult to make someone believe something when their salary depends on them not believing it.
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SalmonGod

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3862 on: September 10, 2016, 08:14:33 pm »

And the focus here seems to be exclusively on global warming, which is only one of many ways we're fucking over the environment in ways that are likely to have civilization-ending consequences.
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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3863 on: September 10, 2016, 08:38:16 pm »

I was amused that the clarification Hillary gave about the "basket of deplorables" statement was "I shouldn't have said half" and thought it was a clever way to get the whole alt-right buzzword back in the discussion.

And the focus here seems to be exclusively on global warming, which is only one of many ways we're fucking over the environment in ways that are likely to have civilization-ending consequences.
Ding! I worry that the politics pushing one doomsday scenario is taking away effort and funding from far more important issues. As I've said before, moving away from oil burning and coal plants is indeed the right course of action, scaring people into doing it with some sort of righteous crusade against warmth under the guise of science just seems like it is going to really confuse people about what science is and does, because it already has.

It's very difficult to make someone believe something when their salary depends on them not believing it.
Terrifying that you so casually talk about "making someone believe something" and toss in corruption allegations, I wish I was being paid for not believing things I don't know to be true, fuck that would be the best job ever.
what has been an obvious existential threat to humanity and life on Earth as we know it for as long as almost everybody alive now has been around.
>.> I've been following this topic for most of my life (which will enter year 36 tomorrow), literally, you can't pull this on me. It wasn't even until the late 80's and early 90's that they first started getting any attention, and it was 1995 specifically that they were able to get governments to take them seriously, just saying, the situation is a lot more complex than "HE DOESN'T BELIEVE, WHAT ABOUT THE POLAR BEARS, HE MUST BE EVIL UNLIKE ME" type stuff, calm down man, I don't hate the planet, I would love to get funded by rich oil tycoons because fuck those guys, gimme dat cash, but I'm not. I can rationally disagree with you about this subject, afford me the same courtesy? I'm not interested it getting into a big search for charts and data and whatnot, because it won't accomplish anything, I already tried that here, I've done it for years before, I'm done wasting time trying to change beliefs with facts, it's insane on my part at this point, but while you're looking at extreme droughts and hurricanes, google "cat 5 drought" next.
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Frumple

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3864 on: September 10, 2016, 09:00:03 pm »

Eh, the conservationist/environmental movement had stuff starting to really fly somewhere in the mid 1900s, iirc. There certainly hasn't been much public awareness of or governmental attention to some of the problems until recently but folks in the fields in question were starting to see major problems a fair bit before either of us were born... definitely a good decade or two before the 80s. The earliest folks starting to propose stuff like greenhouse warming was in the late 1800s :-\
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Flying Dice

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3865 on: September 10, 2016, 09:09:42 pm »

The conservation movement started a good bit before that, though, and despite the antiquated nature of some of those early ideas it was still one of the main roots of modern environmentalism, even if it dealt with a narrower and somewhat less important aspect of "stop fucking the world before we fuck ourselves and our descendants into extinction".
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3866 on: September 10, 2016, 09:16:23 pm »

Ding! I worry that the politics pushing one doomsday scenario is taking away effort and funding from far more important issues. As I've said before, moving away from oil burning and coal plants is indeed the right course of action, scaring people into doing it with some sort of righteous crusade against warmth under the guise of science just seems like it is going to really confuse people about what science is and does, because it already has.
Global warming is scientific fact. You do not know better than 98% of the world's climatologists, or as I said before, at this point just observable events.

Nobody has ever said we shouldn't focus on things that do not directly cause climate change, but: A. The vast majority of these things are either majorly advanced by or even directly caused by climate change, B. It is irrational to think a successful ecological ethic would not include them, and C. With the possible exception of ocean acidification (majorly advanced by CO2 content) climate change is the biggest problem and the one most likely to cascade.
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It's very difficult to make someone believe something when their salary depends on them not believing it.
Terrifying that you so casually talk about "making someone believe something" and toss in corruption allegations, I wish I was being paid for not believing things I don't know to be true, fuck that would be the best job ever.
It's not a conspiracy. People who should know better while pushing creationist textbooks are also out there saying they believe it. There are secret atheists who run major churches and people who secretly accept climate change who hold stock in Exxon-Mobil. The exact form of rationalization or just not giving a shit varies between people and isn't really the important part here.

The only people who are actually paid by big business to deny are their think tanks, which unfortunately are very good at what they do.
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>.> I've been following this topic for most of my life (which will enter year 36 tomorrow), literally, you can't pull this on me.
I literally can. Your claims of watching and, if I'm remembering right, "disproving" climate change by doing an experiment in your garage or something, are meaningless. They directly contradict everything we consistently have shown to be true. If you really could demonstrate anything like that in a way that knocked out the mounting evidence of a doomsday scenario you'd be fucking rich dude. It's the same as all the people who say they can disprove evolution. They aren't the next name remembered in biology for centuries and yours isn't the one for climatology.
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It wasn't even until the late 80's and early 90's that they first started getting any attention, and it was 1995 specifically that they were able to get governments to take them seriously,

Ba-Ba-Bullshit. As you may have heard, the first study demonstrating the dangers of anthropocentric climate change was done in the late 19th century. But fine. Maybe you don't think that's significant enough, and maybe, given that it was only one and very little instrumentation existed at that time. However, you have completely ignored the existence of the conservationist movement, the effective founding of modern ecology with the Blue Marble photograph, the deep concerns of overpopulation and population control movements of the 60's and 70's, the mass renewable boom of the 70's that was then systematically destroyed by the Reagan administration to back up their buddies in big oil, the acid rain conflict and eventual solution via the original cap and trade program, the discovery of peak oil in 1956, and oh yeah, Silent Spring. You can also go ahead and count the anti-nuclear movement since they had the same basic ethos (don't destroy everything).

Yeah, you're right, governments didn't listen until the 90s, and then only grudgingly. It isn't because they rationally assessed the poor idealist environmentalists and said "come back later, champ!". It's because it's a problem so severe and contrary to our way of life up to this point that the response most of the time is outright denial if not rage.
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just saying, the situation is a lot more complex than "HE DOESN'T BELIEVE, WHAT ABOUT THE POLAR BEARS, HE MUST BE EVIL UNLIKE ME" type stuff,

Wow! This poisoned well is a 2001 Gore! That's some fine vintage.
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I can rationally disagree with you about this subject, afford me the same courtesy? I'm not interested it getting into a big search for charts and data and whatnot, because it won't accomplish anything, I already tried that here, I've done it for years before, I'm done wasting time trying to change beliefs with facts, it's insane on my part at this point, but while you're looking at extreme droughts and hurricanes, google "cat 5 drought" next.
You know what's not rationality? Setting yourself up as the persecuted intellectual who's just trying to shine the light on the worming carcass of "big bad politically-backed science". I wish. If the governments of the world actually did take this shit seriously, then you really would have something to worry about.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: If I found out that the conspiracy theories about the government putting contraceptives in the water and sending the EPA to arrest major business owners were true, I would be relieved. Because as ham-fisted and flawed as that would be, it would at least, at least indicate that the people at the top of society actually do understand the magnitude of what we're facing and were trying to do something about it. As opposed to my growing horror that these guys who have their finger on the pulse of the world really do believe their "jobs and growth for eternity" spiel and pray to Jesus to preserve the Earth.
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SalmonGod

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3867 on: September 10, 2016, 09:27:31 pm »

And the focus here seems to be exclusively on global warming, which is only one of many ways we're fucking over the environment in ways that are likely to have civilization-ending consequences.
Ding! I worry that the politics pushing one doomsday scenario is taking away effort and funding from far more important issues. As I've said before, moving away from oil burning and coal plants is indeed the right course of action, scaring people into doing it with some sort of righteous crusade against warmth under the guise of science just seems like it is going to really confuse people about what science is and does, because it already has.

Don't get me wrong.  I still think global warming is an imminent doomsday scenario.  I just think it's not the only one.  I always bring this up not to belittle global warming as a problem, but to make sure it stays present in our minds that global warming is one problem among many with common roots.  Because the vast majority of political discussions I witness regarding the environment focus 100% on global warming as if it's the only problem of this gravity that we face.  What I fear is that in the end we may think we cured the disease, because we managed to suppress a symptom.

We need to be talking as desperately about how to fundamentally change the way our modern society operates (measuring success based on how much we increase our consumption of a pool of finite resources) as much as we talk about what alternative to fossil fuels is best.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2016, 09:30:36 pm by SalmonGod »
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mainiac

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3868 on: September 10, 2016, 09:36:36 pm »

their "jobs and growth for eternity" spiel and pray to Jesus to preserve the Earth.

While "eternity" is a very long time, there is no particular reason to think that energy/carbon intensity cant fall at the same time the economy grows.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically Insane
« Reply #3869 on: September 10, 2016, 09:40:11 pm »

their "jobs and growth for eternity" spiel and pray to Jesus to preserve the Earth.

While "eternity" is a very long time, there is no particular reason to think that energy/carbon intensity cant fall at the same time the economy grows.
I'm not befouling the recognition of that; that's basically the outcome I'm seeking. But that's not how we engage with it, or rather not how any policymaker engages in it.

Some of these people genuinely have the vision of every person having a classical factory to pull levers in as what constitutes "economy". Or so I must assume, since they never clarify beyond "more jobs" and "support the free market and small business". I consider this the more refined version of the window-smasher fallacy.

A sustainable economy is possible but it also is different in essence to the one we've got here; i.e. everything does not orbit the "consumer engine".
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