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Author Topic: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American: T+0  (Read 1422963 times)

Reelya

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9120 on: October 31, 2016, 10:49:11 am »

I actually agree with Clinton on a lot of things, up until that revelation last night concerning her immigration policy. Goddamn that is one awful policy under the current system.
What's she specifically proposing that you have a problem with? The pathway to making the undocumented population into citizens? Well, they're already in your country right now.

And considering that the population of USA is a lot more than Mexico and that birth rates are about equal, it's hard to see how you guys could be "flooded" with Mexicans. e.g. I'm sure a lot of people think that 30 million Mexicans coming over would be plausible. But that's literally 25% of the entire Mexican population. D'ya really think they're literally going to depopulate to move to America? Normalizing the legal status of the existing undocumented immigrants creates growth because those people then pay taxes, they invest, they're not underground having to take cash jobs anymore.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-fi-immigration-policy-impact-20161030-story.html

Here it says the difference in GDP between Clinton and Trump's immigration proposal would be > $1.3 trillion in 10 years, or about 10% of current GDP. The population itself is clearly not going to grow by 10% over that time, so that represents a lot more GDP per capita.

One pro-Trump advisor is try to argue that removing immigrants will grow the GDP by creating jobs for Americans. But that's completely illogical: you don't grow an economy by removing labor. It just doesn't work like that. It would be a zero-sum game at best.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2016, 10:55:56 am by Reelya »
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Dozebôm Lolumzalìs

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9121 on: October 31, 2016, 10:50:31 am »

Do jobs by illegal immigrants count as part of GDP?
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Reelya

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9122 on: October 31, 2016, 10:57:38 am »

If it's going to cost that to hand out forms when they want the forms, then imagine what it would cost to track them down, incarcerate and deport them, when they're actively trying not to be caught.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2016, 10:59:15 am by Reelya »
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Criptfeind

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9123 on: October 31, 2016, 10:58:27 am »

I mean, past a certain point things don't get more impossible.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9124 on: October 31, 2016, 11:04:40 am »

If it's going to cost that to hand out forms when they want the forms, then imagine what it would cost to track them down, incarcerate and deport them, when they're actively trying not to be caught.
Legal immigrants. This has nothing to do with illegal immigrants whatsoever.
Ispil, putting illegal immigrants in trains and camps is against every right and freedom guaranteed by American law. Trump isn't saving you from the big bad Mexicans, he's just spreading racism.
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Reelya

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9125 on: October 31, 2016, 11:05:13 am »

Ah, ok that's the fee that's charged to people to become naturalized.

But there's a flaw with the analysis. Say there are 9 million people who are eligible for citizenship, but can't afford the fee you charge. That fee is a source government revenue, and it adds up to $5 billion.

Then, we waive the fee for those people, and critics say "we're losing $5 billion here". Except this makes no sense: we're "losing" the $5 billion that they weren't actually paying in the first place, by not requiring them to pay it now. But this specific $5 billion you're "losing" never actually existed.

Sure, there's going to be some costs involved, but it's probably way less than the processing fee for 9 million people. Also that assumes all 9 million take you up on the offer, which is definitely not a given.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2016, 11:10:34 am by Reelya »
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Reelya

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9126 on: October 31, 2016, 11:17:56 am »

http://immigrationimpact.com/2015/01/09/cost-citizenship-barrier-immigrants/

If you look at some of the research, naturalized legal status can increase earnings by about 10%. And of course, how much income tax they're paying is going to go up faster than the overall rise in income (higher tax brackets etc). So, it would be pretty likely that this pays for itself in a few years time.

There's also the question of how much fix-costs USCIS incur vs marginal costs. Adding additional processing is likely to cost a lot less per unit than the existing amount (which takes all fixed overheads into account).
« Last Edit: October 31, 2016, 11:20:14 am by Reelya »
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Starver

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9127 on: October 31, 2016, 11:19:40 am »

(19 new replies.. *sigh* 20 now.)
That mail server was an hack-job. A fuckup in that area wouldn't surprise me the slightest. Hell, whoever used that laptop may have synced the mailbox without noticing. Very easy to do with outlook, and very easy to overlook.
Email is very new thing (yes, even though it's older than even me) and best practice with not just that but all New Media is still playing catchup to bring it into line with legislation, and legislation (even more slowly) into line with it.

I have a book here, dated 2003, looks a bit of a Vanity Publishing thing (professionally made, but not a mainstream publisher, doesn't have a bar-code) which is called "E-Mail Rules" and subtitled "A Business Guide To Managing Policies, Security,(oxfordcomma!) And Legal Issues For E-Mail And Digital Communications".  Nancy Flynn and Randolph Kahn Esq. ISBN 0-8144-7188-9, in case you fancy looking for it yourself for some obscure reason.  I have read it (248 pages, including all appendices, but not the index) exactly once, but in my business at the time I was given it (probably at a business seminar sponsored by businesses such as the Business Management company that seems most associated with the book) we were forming our own policies and procedures to be used in our company in its handling of very highly confidential data (personal medical information, plus the raw background of high value business data by the various clients, all competitors of each other) that had to be handled under any number of regulations by the FDA in the US, the MHRA (and predecessors) in the UK, EMA in Europe, TGA in Australia and many other bodies...

All the data had to be both secured for future use (backreference should it be required for any readon) and secured from unauthorised access (competing firms, both of us and of any client, third parties with their own axes to grind and internally from alteration or corruption (intentionally or otherwise) by our own staff.  A lot of cash and expertise went into this, and it still could not stop someone causing us problems by doing something silly.

Data restoration was doable, perhaps with loss of a day's work if it wasn't more insidious damage. Dearchival was ok but gone was the time when a dozen years of past data on (as I calculated at one time) 0.75TB of DAT and DLT tapes, later also CDRs, in one fireproof safe1 that could contain all our backups. But what we could do to 'undo' a leak?  Rewind time?

Never had one of those latter situations (severe enough for me to get to know about) whilst I was working there, but there was no practical way of stopping it, even with the multinational firm's rather condiderable IT budget behind the effort.

Enough of that, thougj. What about Hillary?

Sounds to me like she was the effective CEO of a relatively small 'business'. The might of the US government, aside, her own staff numbered pretty low, and with all the traditional campaigns against Federal expansion (and proven problems with infrastructure projects of a Federal scale, even if they could Pork-Barrel it), I'm confident that it was never going to be any other option other than Hillary asking her PA if she knew anybody who could set up an email system, and it ended up being delegated to the nephew of a friend of one of the junior staffers, who got a quick and dirty system in place.  There are regulations that should have probably been followed more carefully (also 'good governance' principles), but it seems it didn't bother anyone in the Dubya Bush administration, either.

And now what are the complaints? The keeping of the emails from the authorities...  Probably breaking some statutary disclosure rules (that were written long prior to anything could be disclosed that was not handwritten or typewritten on dead tree stuff), but not any more maliciously than anybody else who has been mentioned.  Seemingly breaking some confidentiality rules, which is a fault of the individual person who opened it out to the wider world unwisely and not all to be laid at Hillary's door (given that it is third-, and maybe fourth-party readers/storers of the emails that have revealed this information, likely beyond the imaginable expectations ofnthe core Hillary camp). And it was most definitely not Hillary who orchesteated the hacking of the unconsidered trifles out of the half/fully forgotten duplicate stores of data. Blame for having left security holes unplugged is hard to be harsh about, given that holes would have been sought until some were found.

As to the contents, I've seen worse (also, above, there's reported worse. I also expect worse, from within a small group trying to do what is necessary to bend the world to their collective vision of what needs doing.

Naivety is the worst charge I would place at her camp's door. Fairly bad, but not "Lock Her Up"-worthy. And I bet her systems (internal or external to government) are pretty sharply closed right now, and getting even more so in the future.

(Plus there's the total contrariness of those who complain that the information involved was both too private and too unsecure. Depending only upon which lever they find easier to pull to get the AntiHillary machine to lumber forward a few more inches, temporarily.)

The worst thing is that I'm wasting time talking about it, and details of my old job, rather than getting on with work that is both relevant to myself and my own future...  Darn you, Trump! You're potentially ruining my life! And I don't deserve any of the blame for that myself, no siree!


1 Yes, there was an off-site backup, not quite so duplicated as the "Full backup once a week, diffetential backups every weekday night, one-off backups of data about to be 'final copy archived' and the whole lot refreshed on a five year cycle to ensure tape-rot never irrecoverably set in".
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sluissa

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9128 on: October 31, 2016, 11:21:34 am »

Actually read Ispil' posts. They by law get no government funding. Their budgets are paid through fees charged to users of the system. You can't just waive the fees because then theres no money to do tge job.
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Reelya

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9129 on: October 31, 2016, 11:21:44 am »

But none of that is going to the USCIS.

Well maybe you should have a "non insane" funding system like every other country has.

D'ya think Trump is going to get USCIS to self-fund deportation of 11 million people? Or is that a "special case" where it's ok to pull in additional funding?

Reelya

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9130 on: October 31, 2016, 11:26:22 am »

I'm looking up figures. UCSIS already processes 7.6 million applications for this stuff per year. I'm kinda guessing the bulk of current costs is that, and not the smaller number who pass and get naturalized.

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/About%20Us/Budget%2C%20Planning%20and%20Performance/FY2017.pdf

I'm also willing to bet that the 9 million people who we're talking about are probably already in the system and have had above the processing done on their cases, since ~7 million people a year are processed who are never naturalized.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2016, 11:28:51 am by Reelya »
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9131 on: October 31, 2016, 11:26:52 am »

And now we're back onto a topic completely irrelevant to my earlier points. Seriously, when did I ever say Trump's policies were anything other than shit? Find me the quote. Instead you'll find dozens where I say he's fucking insane and an idiot. How the hell am I of all people being framed as a Trump supporter? Seriously?

As to your point, no, because USCIS doesn't handle deportations. That's ICE. ICE has federal funding though the department of homeland security.
What makes you so certain Trump is going to be the boon to legal immigrants he says he is? Even if you're completely immoral and want to watch all the illegals get gone by force, that doesn't mean he'll actually support legal immigration like he says he does.
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sluissa

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9132 on: October 31, 2016, 11:28:38 am »

I love how criticism of Clinton = Trump supporter. It's amazing really how that leap of logic works.
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Criptfeind

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9133 on: October 31, 2016, 11:29:27 am »

Christ, what sort of twisted logic can you take a quote where someone is calling trump insane and an idiot and try to frame that as the person being a trump supporter in anyway?

I'm actually unsure if this is a joke now, because it seems too insane to be real.

I love how criticism of Clinton = Trump supporter. It's amazing really how that leap of logic works.

It's not even hard Criticism of her! It's just "oh her policy proposal fails to take X into account."

What sort of level of blindness does one need to turn that into trump love, seriously.
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Reelya

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Re: Doc Helgoland's Asylum for the Politically American (\{mainiac})
« Reply #9134 on: October 31, 2016, 11:36:18 am »

If USCIS is doing all these other things as well, it doesn't seem to make sense to extrapolate from their entire budget and total number of naturalized people then, does it?

Clearly, if the applications for naturalization are such a small percentage of their workload then they should also represent a small percentage of the $4 billion in costs they incur each year.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2016, 11:38:42 am by Reelya »
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