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Author Topic: Mafia Marathon  (Read 230656 times)

Elephant Parade

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 19
« Reply #3165 on: November 13, 2016, 10:47:58 pm »

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Last I checked, I have a one in five chance of being guilty, assuming any of us actually did kill this NPC.
The "nobody is guilty" gimmick already happened, and wouldn't fit with the shown wincons at all. It's technically possible, I suppose, but only with extreme, not-yet-seen bastardry—so we probably shouldn't worry about it.

Just in case: Do any of you Town people have an additional, alternative "survive" wincon?

Also, you've earned extra suspicion points: If your wincon really was to lynch the Evil role, it should have been obvious that this was impossible (wincons never lie outright, even if they often mislead by omission; if your only wincon was to lynch the Evil role and the setup was as you suggested, winning would be impossible). I suppose it could also have been a logical error, but +suspicion for you.

Last I checked, I have a one in five chance of being guilty, assuming any of us actually did kill this NPC.

... One in four if we're hoping Tomasque wouldn't make the kingmaker the Evil role, but there are such things as corrupt judges too.  Or fake roles because secret autos or something.  I mean, those have happened too.
What? No. That isn't how probability works. Stop.

Like, let me break this down: This is basically as far from equal odds as you can get. Why? Because assuming this round's opening post is not blatantly lying to us (which is not guaranteed, but is certainly likely), there are two possible Evil roles: you and Starver. Now, even after we acknowledge the possibility of the opening post being accurate, we still—

Actually, no—this is stupid. There are Mafia situations which can be condensed into probability; this is not one of them.

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Because it's not a trial, it's a game of Mafia, and claiming randomly helps scum, EP.
...The "last I checked, you're on trial" thing was, like, a witticism. Not a very good one, apparently, but it certainly shouldn't have been taken so hyper-literally.

The point is that you can't just say "I'd rather not"—you need to at least explain why you didn't claim. You could have said "I can't claim because revealing some of the information in my role would be anti-town", but you didn't, instead opting to give the most useless, information-less response possible.

Also, I didn't ask you to claim "randomly"; I asked you to claim because your role is a total mystery to me, and I assumed that the "hey, you don't actually need to claim if it'd be super-bad for town" was implied. I didn't make it explicit because I figured you were more likely to be scum and I didn't want to give you ideas, but it's always an option.

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I acted on Hector last night.
No, see, I asked what your night action was. You answered a different question entirely.

I suppose that the question was the slightest bit ambiguous, though I still believe most people would have reached my conclusion. I acknowledge that your response, though not what I wanted, may not have been a deliberate attempt at evasion.

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@Ninja!EP:I seriously was expecting more...Evidence-y evidence than that, though.
Well gosh gee, you should have said that! The only thing your version added was flavour, so I assumed that it was a joke.

...Rereading, I suppose you could argue that "it" is implied to be murder, but still.


okay fine "it" is totally meant to refer to murder; I jumped the gun on that one
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Elephant Parade

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 19
« Reply #3166 on: November 13, 2016, 10:49:05 pm »

To expand on the probability thing: "There's only a X/Y chance I was picked as Mafia!" is literally never a valid defence, unless you're being speedlynched 10 minutes into the game or something equally implausible.
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hector13

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 19
« Reply #3167 on: November 13, 2016, 11:14:56 pm »

Let's not expand on the probability thing, yeah? You claim you want me to lynch someone today, trawling through irrelevant tat won't help me make that decision. Less on the WoT, 'kay?

Also, you're not off the hit-list, bub. A witness by definition was at the scene of the crime.
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Look, we need to raise a psychopath who will murder God, we have no time to be spending on cooking.

the way your fingertips plant meaningless soliloquies makes me think you are the true evil among us.

Elephant Parade

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 19
« Reply #3168 on: November 13, 2016, 11:24:05 pm »

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Also, you're not off the hit-list, bub. A witness by definition was at the scene of the crime.
I don't believe I ever said I was? I mentioned that Starver and TBF were the only two possibilities if the wincons contained in this round's opening post are accurate, but that's it.
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hector13

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 19
« Reply #3169 on: November 13, 2016, 11:41:40 pm »

EP

Do any of you Town people have an additional, alternative "survive" wincon?

Interesting word choice. I take it you are not Town, then?

Also, you've earned extra suspicion points: If your wincon really was to lynch the Evil role, it should have been obvious that this was impossible (wincons never lie outright, even if they often mislead by omission; if your only wincon was to lynch the Evil role and the setup was as you suggested, winning would be impossible). I suppose it could also have been a logical error, but +suspicion for you.

What do you mean by the bolded part?

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Also, you're not off the hit-list, bub. A witness by definition was at the scene of the crime.
I don't believe I ever said I was? I mentioned that Starver and TBF were the only two possibilities if the wincons contained in this round's opening post are accurate, but that's it.

What's the difference? By the spoilers, you're not clear either. Evil role generally has to survive 'til the end.

Precisely clarify the information you received last night, and how you received it. Where you told Starver was the only visitor to the NPC? Did you have to use a night action to get these results? If so, what was the action?

TBF

What action did you perform on me last night?
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Look, we need to raise a psychopath who will murder God, we have no time to be spending on cooking.

the way your fingertips plant meaningless soliloquies makes me think you are the true evil among us.

TheBiggerFish

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 19
« Reply #3170 on: November 13, 2016, 11:54:22 pm »

Everyone:While I was working, I had a thought.  Well, I had sort of already had it, but it was expressed weirdly the first time I said it.

Does scum's wincon have anything to do with this trial at all?
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It has been determined that Trump is an average unladen swallow travelling northbound at his maximum sustainable speed of -3 Obama-cubits per second in the middle of a class 3 hurricane.

hector13

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 19
« Reply #3171 on: November 13, 2016, 11:58:19 pm »

You tell us, you're the one being stupendously evasive.
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Look, we need to raise a psychopath who will murder God, we have no time to be spending on cooking.

the way your fingertips plant meaningless soliloquies makes me think you are the true evil among us.

TheBiggerFish

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 19
« Reply #3172 on: November 14, 2016, 12:03:31 am »

How would I know, hector?

@earlier post:I tried to watch you, but got no result.
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hector13

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 19
« Reply #3173 on: November 14, 2016, 12:09:45 am »

Presently it looks like that question is to get us considering something we can't investigate or prove until after the game, and since you don't seem to have considered it beyond "OMG maybe!" I think you'd best keep the conjecture to a minimum.

What does your watch ability tell you?
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Look, we need to raise a psychopath who will murder God, we have no time to be spending on cooking.

the way your fingertips plant meaningless soliloquies makes me think you are the true evil among us.

Elephant Parade

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 19
« Reply #3174 on: November 14, 2016, 12:13:24 am »

(Note: It is 9 PM where I am. I sorta wanted to respond before I went to bed, but that might not have been the best idea; if parts of this post are confusing/incomprehensible, I apologize.)

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Interesting word choice. I take it you are not Town, then?
Ah, no—I'm Neutral; I need to survive until the end of the round. I want to get the Evil Role lynched so they can't kill me, though, so I'm Town-ish. (Assuming they have a kill, that is; if they don't, I need to merely ensure that I'm not lynched before them, which seems a bit easy.)

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What do you mean by the bolded part?
That he should have known his theory—"there isn't a killer"—is impossible, if he really had "lynch Evil" as his wincon.

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What's the difference? By the spoilers, you're not clear either. Evil role generally has to survive 'til the end.
Oh, right, I'm not actually listed as Neutral in the round's original post. I overlooked that, actually, since the wincons match the typical alignments fairly well.

(the following text block is based on faulty 9 PM logic and should be ignored)

Okay: If the wincons in the OP are accurate, either Starver or TBF wants a mislynch: if TBF is innocent, Starver is Evil; if Starver isn't evil, TBF is presumably the Evil role. (It's possible that TBF is innocent and Starver somehow counts as Neutral despite having a blatantly anti-Town role, I suppose, but I consider it unlikely for balance reasons.) If I was the Evil role and my only goal was to survive (which I don't think has been the case yet?), I'd just want you to hammer No Lynch endlessly, barring role/bastard shenanigans; there'd be no reason for me to want anyone dead. Also, since I don't have a killing power, you could just lynch everyone and win.

Okay, I don't think I can prove that I'm not the Evil role based on visible wincons, though I might be wrong about that. In the morning, when I'm a bit more coherent, I should be able to explain why I'm probably not the evil role, but I'm too sleepy for logic stuff right now.

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Precisely clarify the information you received last night, and how you received it. Where you told Starver was the only visitor to the NPC? Did you have to use a night action to get these results? If so, what was the action?

Well, first of all, I got this PM sometime during Night 0 (?):
You are loitering around, when suddenly you see Starver visiting Darryl Cricket. Soon, you are called into a court case!
(I'm pretty sure it's redundant, but I'm including it for completion's sake, just in case.)

Just before Day 1 started, I got the following PM:

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You have gained the following ability:


(a/d) Things Seen: You know who visited Darryl Cricket on Night 0. You may True Reveal (reveal with mod confirmation) this information anytime you may speak.

Starver visited Darryl Cricket on Night 0.
(Prior to this point, I had no abilities; see my Role PM:)

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Witness
It seemed to be a night like any other. You had no idea what you'd end up seeing
Archetype: Neutral role
Wincon: You win if you survive until the end of the round.

Also, I got a clarification at one point:

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True Reveals happen anytime the Revealer can speak, and the Revealer must say it (i.e. the Witness), and then the person in control of the True Reveal decides to conform it.


Does scum's wincon have anything to do with this trial at all?
How could it not? The trial is the lynch, after all.
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TheBiggerFish

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 19
« Reply #3175 on: November 14, 2016, 12:21:16 am »

@EP:No, the trial is flavor that gives hector instant hammering abilities.  I'm rather suspicious of that, honestly.  The lynch and the trial aren't really much linked...

@EP:Again I ask: What do you think scum's wincon is?
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Elephant Parade

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 19
« Reply #3176 on: November 14, 2016, 12:24:47 am »

@EP:No, the trial is flavor that gives hector instant hammering abilities.  I'm rather suspicious of that, honestly.  The lynch and the trial aren't really much linked...

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@EP:Again I ask: What do you think scum's wincon is?
Either to kill everyone else (if they have a kill) or to cause n mislynches (if they don't). I'm leaning heavily towards "they have a kill", since A) hector13's role talks about what happens if he dies, and B) my wincon is to survive until the end of the game. Neither of these things prove they have a kill, per se, but it'd make a lot more sense that way.
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Elephant Parade

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 19
« Reply #3177 on: November 14, 2016, 12:25:52 am »

I don't understand the first question. The flavour is flavour; the mechanics are mechanics. This is probably not an answer; I'll take another look in the morning.
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Starver

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 19
« Reply #3178 on: November 14, 2016, 12:56:16 am »

My wincon is that I win if the Evil role is eliminated.

Geez.

Starver:What did you do to Darryl?
I did nothing.

You visit Darryl Cricket, but before you can complete your action, you are called to a court case!

Yes, that is the full, uncut response to my pre-Plaintiff action (not making me less suspicious) and there was even a leading space in that quote.

That aside...
Tomasque: If I need to, like, explicitly acknowledge that I'm going for True Reveal or whatever, consider this sentence the acknowledgement.

Starver: Do your part of the confirmation process, please.
Tomsque: However it works, work the True Reveal


Personally (meta) I think Darryl (or Daryl or Daryll, there has been confusion about this ;) ) was not killed by anyone. Our Mr (or Ms?) Cricket was always intended to die, part of the reason I decided to visit them before they did. That didn't work out.

In-game, my public Wincon seems to require me to indite Fish, regardless, but I'm not even sure that's in best interest of Town.  (I am Town, but I don't have a Town wincon. I should be (benign?) Neutral, by most counts.)  I don't know how I'm going to work this, because I don't yet really know what game is being played. I'd probably lynch me if I weren't me, @Hector, but being me I know I shouldn't.

Let's see where this leads.
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TheBiggerFish

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Re: Mafia Marathon (Semi-bastard) Round 19
« Reply #3179 on: November 14, 2016, 12:57:57 am »

What did you try to do, Starver?
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