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Author Topic: Stellaris: Paradox Interactive IN SPACE  (Read 1743448 times)

Radsoc

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Re: Stellaris: Paradox Interactive IN SPACE
« Reply #8115 on: May 19, 2019, 03:56:20 am »

Performance wise you would only need a super computer when training the nets. When that's done, it's probably much more light weight (CPU wise) than any mechanical AI. From that point on each game can be used to train the AI on the go. Poorly defined problems is what make stochastical algos and neural nets shine as compared to standard (tailored or not) algos. The problem is that it's a different branch of science with almost no everyday commercial use. A company is not going to pay a programmer for implementing something in 10x the time with everything but guaranteed results where standard algos perform acceptably. But my point is that we've reached the limits of standard strategy AI and that the toolbox of complexity science is the way forward for AI.

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Re: Stellaris: Paradox Interactive IN SPACE
« Reply #8116 on: May 19, 2019, 10:34:09 am »

Stellaris does this too, to a point, doesn't it?  I've never really noticed much difference though, since I think most of the difference manifests as opinion modifiers, but a few personalities declare war more readily.
It says they do this, but I've never noticed. I think this is because the power discrepancy between Empires is either too close or too far to make a difference

E. Albright

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Re: Stellaris: Paradox Interactive IN SPACE
« Reply #8117 on: May 19, 2019, 11:46:25 am »

The problem is that it's a different branch of science with almost no everyday commercial use.

This is flat-out wrong. Statistical AI is currently and increasingly applicable to everyday commercial use. Machine learning is everywhere. Big data analysis is everywhere. 10 years ago the everyday part might not have been true, but even then the commercial part definitely was not.

It's not "database programming" common, but we're not talking about some obscure field practiced only in the rarefied atmospheres of academia.
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Radsoc

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Re: Stellaris: Paradox Interactive IN SPACE
« Reply #8118 on: May 19, 2019, 11:58:13 am »

The problem is that it's a different branch of science with almost no everyday commercial use.

This is flat-out wrong. Statistical AI is currently and increasingly applicable to everyday commercial use. Machine learning is everywhere. Big data analysis is everywhere. 10 years ago the everyday part might not have been true, but even then the commercial part definitely was not.

It's not "database programming" common, but we're not talking about some obscure field practiced only in the rarefied atmospheres of academia.

That's what I mean, most CS, or other, graduates don't deal with AI. Only a subset works for businesses that do AI, and less are directly involved. I mean e.g. Amazon is a big company, but the people who write recommendation algorithms etc are a tiny part. Most employers want the "database"-part of it, and that's where the main competition is. Then you have the high risk startups and big corps that have their own research departments.
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Re: Stellaris: Paradox Interactive IN SPACE
« Reply #8119 on: May 19, 2019, 12:08:44 pm »

That's true of ANY AI programming though. In fact, given how statistical analysis methods have proliferated through various hard- and soft-science research fields, statistical AI techniques are far more accessible than rationalist techniques ever were - and there are ever more tools making them even more accessible. But that doesn't change that AI gameplay which requires planning with deferred results in the face of unpredictable and random changes is a bad fit for these techniques because of how large the feature space is and more importantly how messy the solution definitions are.

Ipsil brought up the biggest impracticality of this approach, though, and it's one that you'd face even if you could frontload all the computing so at runtime it was just applying decision trees: all that upfront computing would need to be re-applied after every patch. Go has a simple feature selection space and limited available actions, so even though the solution space mushrooms massively, it could be tackled with such an approach. But that's because the rules are static. If Go was getting significant rule changes every few months within a non-trivial feature set and to a broad range of possible actions, it would very emphatically not be an attractive candidate. And that's where 4x games sit.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2019, 12:30:47 pm by E. Albright »
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Radsoc

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Re: Stellaris: Paradox Interactive IN SPACE
« Reply #8120 on: May 19, 2019, 12:46:38 pm »

This is closer to Stellaris than Go:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfb6aEUMC04
And very recent. Stellaris is a bit more complex, but here you have unpredictability, planning, unit placement and randomness introduced by the player(s). It still is extremely robust and beats standard AI (which in essence is made obsolete in this game).

Patches and game mechanic changes would make it impractical, yes. However, it doesn't necessarily have to mean that the net wouldn't be robust enough to handle it. In a worst case scenario you would have to retrain it overnight or more. Even with patch changes it is the only attractive candidate if someone wants decent AI. ;)

So, basically, if you developed AI for that game, would you continue to improve it, knowing that efforts are bringing diminishing returns, and changes with patches as well, or go with OpenAI? What if it was possible for Stellaris/Clausewitz? I don't think it will be done, but it's the principle. If the strategy game companies of today are to survive, they have to take a risk.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2019, 01:04:30 pm by Radsoc »
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Re: Stellaris: Paradox Interactive IN SPACE
« Reply #8121 on: May 19, 2019, 01:22:07 pm »

In a worst case scenario you would have to retrain it overnight or more. Even with patch changes it is the only attractive candidate if someone wants decent AI. ;)

"or more" is doing heavy lifting here. The techniques you're discussing need good human players to train off of - OpenAI is certainly relying on the availability of them. So every time the game significantly changes (which per the Paradox model is every DLC), you'd need to get a stable of very good players with various playstyles to generate training data and for the nascent AIs to train against. That would likely be weeks if not months. Every time you make major changes. This just doesn't seem viable or fiscally attractive in terms of ROI - the industry push is "good enough" rationalist AI and let MP take care of the people who want a human-level opponent. The time and resource requirements for machine learning-based AIs seem like they'd need to drop significantly before they became attractive to devs.
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EnigmaticHat

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Re: Stellaris: Paradox Interactive IN SPACE
« Reply #8122 on: May 19, 2019, 01:25:40 pm »

Yeah but that AI isn't sufficient as an enemy AI in a video game:

1.  It is actually looking at the screen the same way a player does
2.  It doesn't act convincing (see: places sentry wards under towers)
3.  Its way too good/ruthless (because its been trained to the standard of winning, which isn't necessarily a good goal for a video game AI)
4.  DOTA 2 had to be altered for the AI to be able to play it, in particular both teams were given 5 invincible couriers, because the AI could never learn how to use them.  Additionally the hero pool was limited to nukey heroes that didn't scale well off agility*.
5.  Stellaris is far less friendly towards this kind of AI.  DOTA 2 has a static map, static scenario, and much like chess the game state consists of a series of values that can be measured on a good/bad scale.  This isn't true in Stellaris because in Stellaris most assets a player can have are both good and bad, because the game state involves variables that can vary in number instead of just value, and because the game state cannot be interpreted without understanding the intents of the players involved**.

*both the courier and "hard carry" heroes are inherently hard for the AI to handle because they require it to make value judgments between which of its 5 heroes are most valuable.  The courier would be especially difficult because it provides only a positional advantage (something the AI would be weighted not to care too much about) but risks feeding a massive bounty to the enemy team (something a DOTA 2 AI would definitely be weighted to hate).

**hence why Stellaris is somewhat like a board game.  Its the same reason "OpenAI Catan" would be an exercise in madness.
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Radsoc

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Re: Stellaris: Paradox Interactive IN SPACE
« Reply #8123 on: May 19, 2019, 01:52:03 pm »

I think it trains against itself, and then goes a match against real players. But they say the paper isn't out yet.


This one doesn't seem to look at the screen the same way a player does. (No need for image recognition - and then you would probably have to strip graphics down a lot). I think it has direct access to the game. If it acts convincing or not is difficult to say and hard to measure. In the video they mention that it seemed to act suboptimally/make mistakes (but which eventually made sense). It will probably exploit mechanics if there's an opportunity, but that's the fault of the mechanics and the incentives supplied there really. If it's too good, you just grab it at a smaller generation number. They mentioned that in the vid. Early on it would only beat casual players. The thing is that you can handicap it, while you today have to handicap yourself. Victory goals and personalities could be accounted for in the same way, by adjusting goals.

Stellaris is a slower game though, but if time is measured as interactions/events per minute Dota could be in the lead. The strength of nets is robustness to peculiarities of games. I believe this is doable in principle, but yes, I agree there are too many practical problems, but I believe that if Paradox took a small chunk of the money they get, they would get their investment back in a decade.

I stopped playing lots of strategy games in SP due to AI. In civ 5, in 2/3 campaigns I never lost a unit (except cruise missiles). In Shogun 2 I lost 2 battles out of 100, and they were auto. Dominions 4/5 is almost unplayable in SP, apart form a trainer for MP. If Stellaris didn't have story driven events or mods I would only play it for the challenge of learning the game and then leave it. Right now the Star Trek mod is excellent.





« Last Edit: May 19, 2019, 01:54:04 pm by Radsoc »
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"To punish the oppressors of humanity is clemency; to forgive them is cruelty. The severity of tyrants has barbarity for its principle; that of a republican government is founded on beneficence."

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Re: Stellaris: Paradox Interactive IN SPACE
« Reply #8124 on: May 19, 2019, 06:11:22 pm »

They said they trained it both against itself and players. It experienced a serious bump-up in quality when it got to train against players.

I don't know enough about MOBA games to make any comments on the complexity involved, but what EnigmaticHat says points towards this being a pretty bad parallel even if we ignore the rules being crippled to handicap the players' advantages. There may be a lot of moving parts, but not as much complexity in how those interact with each other or the environment - and the specific sort of necessary handicaps (i.e., involving non-straightforward play) points towards this not being good evidence of parallels to a PITA complexity like Stellaris.
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Telgin

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Re: Stellaris: Paradox Interactive IN SPACE
« Reply #8125 on: May 23, 2019, 08:30:47 am »

New dev diary focuses on performance: Dev Diary.

Of note, Stellaris will be 64-bit (only) in 2.3, and performance is expected to be 10-30% better.  The devs also took some AI weighting from Glavius's mod to improve the AI.
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Telgin

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Re: Stellaris: Paradox Interactive IN SPACE
« Reply #8126 on: May 30, 2019, 12:54:08 pm »

Patch notes for 2.3: link.  Next patch + DLC will be released on June 4th.

Copied for quick access:

Spoiler: Patch Notes (click to show/hide)

I really like most of these changes.  Making habitability have more teeth is a good thing, although it means I probably won't try any more Life-Seeded games for a while.  The changes to habitats and ring worlds were also long overdue.

One thing that kind of confuses me is how much of a buff the Dyson sphere got.  I'm not sure what the point of generating so much energy is, but I guess it means I'll have to invest less alloys in them now and just upgrade them one or two stages.
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Cruxador

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Re: Stellaris: Paradox Interactive IN SPACE
« Reply #8127 on: May 30, 2019, 05:23:36 pm »

Gotta say, I don't much like that the whole system of archeology (rather than just the content that currently uses it) is locked behind DLC. Hopefully they change that after adding more relevant content in future releases, rather than just leaving it as an isolated system and not iterating on it.

Regarding the Dyson sphere, they may have found it not worth investing in on their own office games, but it has been a complaint since the inception of the megastructure system that the Dyson sphere is not a big enough deal. Since this should allow it to actually serve your empire's entire energy needs on a non-small map, this seems about right to me.
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Telgin

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Re: Stellaris: Paradox Interactive IN SPACE
« Reply #8128 on: May 30, 2019, 07:45:00 pm »

If I understand right, the archaeology system is actually part of the free patch and will even be available to modders for free with 2.3.  I think it's just the DLC content that will really use it at first.

And that may be right about the Dyson sphere, and to a lesser extent the matter decompressor.  I always end up building both and they're never enough on their own.  I found myself still building energy districts in the end game in my last game even with Capacity Overload, and actually got to the point of having no net mineral production because of alloy and consumer goods consumption.
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Broseph Stalin

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Re: Stellaris: Paradox Interactive IN SPACE
« Reply #8129 on: May 30, 2019, 09:47:25 pm »

I've always used mods for multiple dyson spheres, allowing them to actually sate the energy thirst of a mature empire seems like a good call.
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