Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[sluissa]

Voted... although if I knew the polls now as I did a few months ago, I'd probably have reregistered different and gone anti-trump instead. Bernie is probably going to get stomped in FL... on the other hand, proportional... so hey, every vote (sort of, but not really) counts.

[smjjames]

Using the date that he makes the formal announcement works as that's what we've been doing for the other candidates.

But we've also used the date that they suspended their campaigns for the other candidates.  He is the only candidate where those are different.

Yeah you're right....

Well, he effectively threw in the towel on the 2nd (also the date when a lot of news reports said he dropped out, if unofficially) and did his formal announcement on the 4th. So, go for the middle and use the 3rd?

[RedKing]

Voter #393 at my precinct. #FeltTheBern

Looking forward to seeing what wackiness ensues tonight on the GOP side of the NC ticket. We have:
1) Richard "Special Interest Marionette" Burr getting primary challenges from three assorted nutjobs and perpetual office seekers
2) A popular and successful Agriculture Commissioner (hell, I vote for him) getting a primary challenge from a guy whose entire campaign plank is "we should be able to open-carry firearms at the State Fair".
3) And perpetual lunatic Vernon "Black Jesse Helms" Robinson (also former head of the Draft Ben Carson For President Committee) running in the newly reconfigured (and incumbent-less) 13th House District. Although that last race is meaningless, because the results will be unreported and thrown out when we have a second election in June just for the House races.

[smjjames]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/top-conservatives-gather-to-plot-third-party-run-against-trump-220786

Well, I guess they want to make it easy for Clinton to become president.... Unless Sanders or someone else runs third party as well, but I don't see that happening on the Democrat side.

Seems like a 'damned if you do, damned if you don't ' situation because a Trump nomination could tear the party apart and Clinton would win, and splitting a third party would rip the party apart and give the election to Clinton.

Not sure what the threshold is for a third party to become a major party...

[Reelya]

^ basically, just hanging around while a bigger party implodes.

[sluissa]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/top-conservatives-gather-to-plot-third-party-run-against-trump-220786

Well, I guess they want to make it easy for Clinton to become president.... Unless Sanders or someone else runs third party as well, but I don't see that happening on the Democrat side.

Seems like a 'damned if you do, damned if you don't ' situation because a Trump nomination could tear the party apart and Clinton would win, and splitting a third party would rip the party apart and give the election to Clinton.

Not sure what the threshold is for a third party to become a major party...

I would say a third party in the double digits would be astounding...

Really though, behind all the rhetoric and yelling and hyperbole, republicans and democrats walk into the same buildings and work together every day. They may have oppositing positions when it comes to the votes, but a lot of congress has been walking into those buildings for decades, working alongside political rivals who've also been walking into those buildings for decades. Respect is there, rapport is there, and a lot of them would rather lose an election and a little bit of political capital than see someone like Trump come in and demolish everything they've built up over those decades.

The establishment is strong, within each party, and taken as a whole together. Besides, there are plenty of Republicans who've been shouting "IT"S OBAMA'S FAULT" for so long they wouldn't know what to say if they actually had a President working with them. Easy enough to just transition to "IT"S HILLARY'S FAULT!" or to continue shouting "SOCIALISM!" just this time at someone who actually deserves the title.

[smjjames]

^ basically, just hanging around while a bigger party implodes.

That's what happened in 1860, but the comparison stops there. At the time, the republicans were a new party stepping into a chaotic mess (and a power vacuum I think) and then the democrats split. There isn't really a power vacuum, yet, at least not in the way that another party would wedge itself in.

Whatever happens, it's not going to be overnight.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/top-conservatives-gather-to-plot-third-party-run-against-trump-220786

Well, I guess they want to make it easy for Clinton to become president.... Unless Sanders or someone else runs third party as well, but I don't see that happening on the Democrat side.

Seems like a 'damned if you do, damned if you don't ' situation because a Trump nomination could tear the party apart and Clinton would win, and splitting a third party would rip the party apart and give the election to Clinton.

Not sure what the threshold is for a third party to become a major party...

I would say a third party in the double digits would be astounding...

Really though, behind all the rhetoric and yelling and hyperbole, republicans and democrats walk into the same buildings and work together every day. They may have oppositing positions when it comes to the votes, but a lot of congress has been walking into those buildings for decades, working alongside political rivals who've also been walking into those buildings for decades. Respect is there, rapport is there, and a lot of them would rather lose an election and a little bit of political capital than see someone like Trump come in and demolish everything they've built up over those decades.

The establishment is strong, within each party, and taken as a whole together. Besides, there are plenty of Republicans who've been shouting "IT"S OBAMA'S FAULT" for so long they wouldn't know what to say if they actually had a President working with them. Easy enough to just transition to "IT"S HILLARY'S FAULT!" or to continue shouting "SOCIALISM!" just this time at someone who actually deserves the title.

I don't know about the establishment being strong within the Republicans.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/03/marco-rubio-stay-in-race-after-florida-220787

Rubio is really fooling himself here if he doesn't think he is 20 points behind, unless their internal polling is telling them something else.

Then again, there have been plenty of surprises already in this primary.

[Bauglir]

What if we had some sort of oversight organization that would watch to make sure everyone was following these rules?  They could be an elite group that would carefully monitor the activity of lawmakers and be appointed to these positions for life so they would be free from outside influence.  We could call them Hashashin.

Y'know, dropping all the sarcasm for a moment, I really want to see what kind of world it'd be if the Supreme Court implemented judicial review with bullets. Probably one of Tarantino's movies.

[RedKing]

What if we had some sort of oversight organization that would watch to make sure everyone was following these rules?  They could be an elite group that would carefully monitor the activity of lawmakers and be appointed to these positions for life so they would be free from outside influence.  We could call them Hashashin.

Y'know, dropping all the sarcasm for a moment, I really want to see what kind of world it'd be if the Supreme Court implemented judicial review with bullets. Probably one of Tarantino's movies.

Judge Dredd.

And more videos like this.

[mainiac]

I would say a third party in the double digits would be astounding...

I expect a double digit showing myself.

The candidate would be a protest candidate but a protest candidate with a lot of support.  The republicans in Congress want to be able to distance themselves from Trump.  The way to do that is to publicly endorse the alternative.  So that means a candidate with what appears to be a spontaneous wellspring of support.  Not really but I expect the news to use that narrative.  So that means people will hear about Mr. Third and all the republicans who are voting for Rubio and Kaisich or just sitting out will follow Mr. Third and be sure thing protest votes for him.  Then there will be some swing voters who just like to vote for third party candidates in general regardless of their policies.  It should add up to maybe 15%-20%, maybe more if Mr. Third succeeds in making Trump look like a marginal candidate.

Of course the million dollar question is who do the republicans actually draft as Mr. Third?  The problem that got this into this mess is they deluded themselves into thinking that Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker and John Kasich equaled a deep bench.  They need someone high profile to serve as this sacrificial lamb.  They can't take Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush and put them up as a candidate after they flopped in the republican primaries.  Bloomberg has declined.  Paul Ryan would be good but you can't have the speaker of the house running a protest campaign.  Ted Cruz has the stature to not look like damaged goods but the republicans hate him and his favorables are low.  Best guess I have at this point is just a rerun of Mitt Romney or John McCain.

[smjjames]

Using Kasich sounds like a (relatively) safe bet for a third party split off, but the establishment is going to have to make an agonizing choice here, either try to preserve the party (whether by backing Trump or some other means besides a third party split) or throw the election to the democrats. I don't see a way out of that predicament by doing a third party split.

I get they're desperate as hell to get back the white house, but in this kind of situation, it seems smarter to try and save themselves because they can always fight another day, even if it takes four more years.

Of course though, an attempt to save themselves might split the party anyway.

I'm being a bit rambly in this post aren't I....

[RedKing]

Calling it now -- Sanders has a late surge to win the Democratic nomination, and the GOP drafts Hillary Clinton as their third-Party candidate. Which would be hella interesting, because it could potentially shatter BOTH major parties.

[sluissa]

I'm thinking they may not actually name an established republican to run independent, that's too blatant and would just throw even more support behind trump as they're viewed as openly manipulating the process. What I think they may do though is see who the Liberatarian or maybe the Constitution party are running, if they're not absolutely nuts, throw some resources behind them. Extra money, more time in the media, an astroturf roots campaign. Not enough to really make them win, or more notable than maybe Nader was back in the early 2000s with the Greens, but definitely a spoiler vote for the political Right.

[FearfulJesuit]

Too bad I'm in Europe, so the results won't come in until the wee small hours. Personally hoping Kasich squeaks a win out in Ohio, Rubio calls it quits, Trump and Cruz split everything else, and the drama rolls on.

[smjjames]

In order for the GOP to draft Clinton, they'd have to effectively drink poisonous lava.

The Democrats would probably go more WTF!?! O.o if anything.