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[mainiac]

I said that her negatives were already mostly priced in.  That doesn't mean that her post-negatives appeal is necessarily lower then Sanders or O'Malley's post negatives appeal.  That would require information on the size of their negatives.  It would strongly suggest that her relative post-negative appeal fundementals are higher then the snapshot.

It's also pretty irrelevant to the issue of diehard partyline voters.

[Wolfhunter107]

I didn't know Sanders polled well in mental wards.  Hm... if that gives him a shot in Texas that could really shake things up.

It's less the full-on crazies and more the disaffected types tired of pro-Wall Street establishment candidates.

[RedKing]

And my argument is that the "pricing" doesn't matter. It'd be like having a 90% off sale on Detroit Red Wings' jerseys in Chicago, because FUCK THE RED WINGS. Granted, some people in that situation might buy the jerseys just so they can piss on them, and it's plausible some Republican pundits could secretly vote for Clinton so they have a job bitching about the government for the next four years.


And while it's true that those same Republicans are unlikely to vote for ANY Democrat, it's marginally more plausible for a relative unknown than it is for a target they're already well-accustomed to hating (since 1992 and still going strong!)



Found it...my birthplace went for Huckabee and Edwards in 2008. Sounds about right, it's basically a giant stereotype of Iowa, being 98% corn and trailer parks.

[smjjames]

CNN is saying that caucas places are seeing record (or unusually high) registration rates. So, yeah, Trump and Sanders at the top maybe?

[mainiac]

And while it's true that those same Republicans are unlikely to vote for ANY Democrat, it's marginally more plausible for a relative unknown than it is for a target they're already well-accustomed to hating (since 1992 and still going strong!)

Okay...?  And it's perfectly plausible that a bunch of democrats will cross over to vote against a self-proclaimed socialist.  I dont see any reason to assume the marginal electoral impact of what you are talking about is very large in absolute terms nor larger then other effects in what will probably be a very mold breaking election thanks to Trump/Cruz.

CNN is saying that caucas places are seeing record (or unusually high) registration rates. So, yeah, Trump and Sanders at the top maybe?

I'd feel more confident labeling it good for Sanders then Trump but it's what they both were hoping for.

[smjjames]

Apparently the Carson campaign said that he'd be taking a break after Iowa. Uh, if I were a candidate, I'd go straight to NH.

Almost sounds like he wants to drop out.

[RedKing]

Iowa is a one-hog province: Ethanol. And corn.

[mainiac]

Almost sounds like he wants to drop out.

Man that is going to devastate my predictions.  I had him sticking around as the third to last.

[smjjames]

Almost sounds like he wants to drop out.

Man that is going to devastate my predictions.  I had him sticking around as the third to last.

I need to find mine (though I'm sure you have them on a text document or something). Also, I saw this yesterday: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/campaign-cash-federal-election-commission-218502 Look at Santorum and his debt. We could see a dropout from him soon.

edit: I had Carson sticking around fourth to last.

[RedKing]

Pretty sure I had Santorum and Carson high on the list, had Kasich and Paul hanging around a while (I think)

[smjjames]

Post with quote of all of them: http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=147340.msg6680339#msg6680339

We all had him pretty late in there, from halfway at number 6 to 9, so, it's going to screw everybodys predictions. Going to try and find 538's prediction thing.

[RedKing]

Wait.....is Pataki still in this thing?? Or has mainiac just not updated?

[mainiac]

Wait.....is Pataki still in this thing?? Or has mainiac just not updated?

TBH I dont even know.

[smjjames]

I think that's just an older post I quoted, Pataki dropped out some time after the last december debate.

[mainiac]

On December 29, 2015, Pataki ended his campaign,[86] endorsing Florida Senator Marco Rubio on January 26, 2016.[87]