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Author Topic: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée  (Read 1548368 times)

GreatJustice

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Re: Bay12 2016 Election Megathread- It Is Terrifying
« Reply #1200 on: April 04, 2015, 12:45:26 pm »

With regards to cultural issues, I think that the death of religious conservatism as it stands is unfortunately exaggerated in the long run, but when it comes back it'll be a bit different from the way it looks now. The power of religion has generally been cyclical across the world, as opposed to simply being a parade of "people overcome the chains of ignorance". During the peak of the Enlightenment, it wouldn't have been completely unreasonable to argue that, at least for the somewhat educated peoples of Europe, religion was becoming irrelevant. Yet by the Victorian era, at least in Britain and the United States, religious sentiments were stronger than ever (albeit in a much different form from modern Evangelical Christianity common in the US these days). Islamic Fundamentalism of the ISIS/Al-Qaeda/Taliban variety only arose in the 19th century and only gained political relevance in the late 20th century, after decades of relative secularism. "Social conservatism" only really became a powerful political force in the 1980s, and at one point it was argued that the Reagan coalition was strong enough to basically hold power forever, which really goes to show how hard it is to predict what trends will hold past twenty years or so into the future.

Anyhow, America's "glory days" are mostly built on it having a combination of a lean government, an educated populace, lots of very hard working immigrants, and the alternatives generally having some sort of "fatal flaw" that made the US competitive towards other industrialized or semi-industrialized countries that would otherwise have outstripped it. It had no massive overseas empire to maintain like Britain, no large population of illiterate peasants in need of education like Germany or Russia, and it wasn't in a state of constant political turmoil like France. The US had many problems, massive corruption in government being one of them, but it was generally able to overcome these issues simply by being the best option for people. Your average lower class railroad worker making pennies wasn't well off by any means, but he was better than if he stayed to starve to death in Ireland or get shot at in Central Europe, and the capital accumulated by increases in productivity and savings allowed for the creation of a large middle class. Further, after two World Wars, the US benefited greatly from having an intact industrial base after most other countries had been devastated and/or been taken over by Communists. Thus, even as the US began to lose the advantages it started out with, it was still a competitive option simply because other countries made the same mistakes and then some. The seeds of American decline were laid decades ago, they were just cloaked by the leading "alternative" to the American model being Soviet Communism.

These days, America doesn't have the advantages it once held. The US maintains a gigantic world-spanning empire that far outstrips the former British Empire, and judging by the range of views held to be acceptable by the American media, that empire isn't going anywhere until America becomes incapable of maintaining it economically or militarily. At the same time, it also maintains a gigantic welfare system that somehow becomes less and less efficient as more and more money is put into it. It has a convoluted tax code and regulatory system that is only beneficial to the sort of massive corporations that see the costs of a phalanx of lawyers as a drop in the bucket. Where most Americans were once self employed, now starting a business is so unrealistic for most that there isn't an alternative to working for a small subset of corporations for most of your life. In turn, this binds people to their jobs, letting businesses get away with quite a bit more than they would otherwise since the threat of being replaced is over the heads of the workers. All of this creates a sort of stagnation in American industry that causes it to become less and less competitive on the world stage. Why should my pharmaceutical company produce cheap, effective medicine when doctors are basically required to recommend it under fear of tort lawsuits, the FDA prevents competition from anything short of a multi-billion dollar company, and patent law grants me a monopoly of several years that lets me charge a thousand dollars for something that costs a few dollars to manufacture? Why should my energy company invest in improving efficiency or alternative sources of power when  I can use eminent domain to seize valuable land for my benefit in America and the CIA/US Armed Forces to seize it abroad? Why should my bank operate carefully when I can take massive risks, have my assets artificially inflated through careful intervention of my friends at the Federal Reserve, and then be compensated by Congress if things go badly anyway?

The US government, despite always being decried as far-left or far-right, has been extremely centrist for a very long time. A politician can argue how the US should intervene in a conflict halfway across the world, not whether it has any right to do so. Arguing against corn subsidies or any other form of subsidy (direct or indirect) is more or less political suicide. The scope of the healthcare debate for most is between the Republicans advocating the present, very broken system that they claim constitutes a "free market" and the Democrats advocating a mandatory wealth transfer from young, healthy Americans to insurance companies cunningly disguised as "universal healthcare". If you try to argue that the ACA isn't universal healthcare you'll be quietly moved to the peripheries of influence, and if you argue that the current system doesn't even remotely approximate a free market you'll be outright ignored. You can argue about taxes, but again in limited terms. You can "tax the rich", but you'll be raising them on the middle-upper management types and the few remaining entrepreneurs since the sorts of people that actually matter in the US don't have an "income" to tax and make their money on diversified investments and government debt besides. So the biggest range of debate is on topics that are basically irrelevant to such people, like whether gay people should be allowed to marry legally in a country where the concept of marriage is becoming less and less relevant, or whether abortion should be legal in a country where birth control is easily accessible.

Really, the only thing holding up American supremacy these days, besides straight up military might, is the standard of backing currencies (and oil purchases) with the US Dollar, and that only lasts so long as US debt is worth something, which might not be so long as the American government thinks.
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Wolfhunter107

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Re: Bay12 2016 Election Megathread- It Is Terrifying
« Reply #1201 on: April 04, 2015, 01:14:06 pm »

People have been saying that the US is going to fall apart for a loooooong time. To my knowledge, not a one of them has been right, which leaves me rather skeptical as to why I should believe this doomsayer.
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Re: Bay12 2016 Election Megathread- It Is Terrifying
« Reply #1202 on: April 04, 2015, 05:38:43 pm »

Falling apart doesn't have to be everything incinerated at the atomic level. There are grades to this.

Quote
People have been saying that the US is going to fall apart for a loooooong time. To my knowledge, not a one of them has been right, which leaves me rather skeptical as to why I should believe this doomsayer.

I guess the people who were saying there was going to be a huge economic crisis in the mid 2000's were talking out their asses.

Right now federal debt as a percentage is almost at WWII levels, but there' no hope in hell of a post-war boom to bring in revenue to pay for that. You have the governments commitments to medicare outstripping the entire budget within a decade, standards of living eroding. The USA is turning into a plantation. The median wealth is less than 1 years salary, the middle class is constantly shrinking, replaced with a small pool of super-rich and a growing mass of poor people. Sure, the state as an institution will hobble along, but USA is seeing a massive erosion of spending power and assets for the average person.

Look, I'm unemployed in Australia, 100% subsisting on welfare while studying. I personally have saved 10% of the life savings of the average US adult in 3 years. Entirely from welfare payments. While often eating takeout and buying computers, tablets, video games. Sure, people can say, "but Australia is so expensive", but I can point to unemployed people like myself who have saved 10% of the median wealth of a working American in 3 years of welfare payments here. And I live on meat,veg and fish and eat low carb, do weights and drink protein shakes, while avoiding bread or cheap carbs. So I eat meat, fresh fruit and veg, everyday and don't eat cheap crap. And am on welfare benefits. Yet I'm still able to save more money than the typical American adult with a job. If I'd really been stingy, I would have probably been able to saves $10,000 in the 3 years, which is 1/4 of the total net assets of the average American who has a job.

The net median wealth in USA is $44000. Here, it is $219000. Yeah, so other countries are a good benchmark for "how well are we actually doing". That's my personal experience, but here's an article about it:

http://money.cnn.com/2014/06/11/news/economy/middle-class-wealth/
« Last Edit: April 04, 2015, 06:14:14 pm by Reelya »
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smjjames

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Re: Bay12 2016 Election Megathread- It Is Terrifying
« Reply #1203 on: April 04, 2015, 06:10:04 pm »

Not to mention the fact that the politicians keep flirting with a default every time that they have to deal with the debt ceiling.
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Reelya

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Re: Bay12 2016 Election Megathread- It Is Terrifying
« Reply #1204 on: April 04, 2015, 06:16:21 pm »

Going over the article I linked:

Quote
Middle class Americans were also hurt greatly by the housing collapse at the end of the last decade. The median wealth of families was $77,300 in 2010, a nearly 40% drop from 2007, according to Federal Reserve statistics.

I'd say a 40% drop in the wealth of the average household in 3 years is slightly catastrophic. Medians are a very good indicator of how "everyone" is doing. Because if only a few people gamble on the markets and lose everything, then the arithmetic average drops, but the median won't budge much. When you have a huge slump in the median, then basically that's a huge widespread economic failure.

I don't really think things have to get "Mad-Max bad" (although I'd posit things are actually "Mad-Max bad" in some places) before we say, maybe the doomsayers were right about some of this economic stuff.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2015, 06:24:01 pm by Reelya »
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Bay12 2016 Election Megathread- It Is Terrifying
« Reply #1206 on: April 04, 2015, 08:26:53 pm »

*clip*
Fuck, I just saw the avatar and wondered why I suddenly agreed with MSH that enthusiastically...
Heheheheh.

Though for what it's worth, I am also mostly divergent from modern liberalism and not too hot with identity politics (doubly for outdated radicalism repeated piecemeal by disaffected youngesters who are learning things but not filtering the adoption of them). I just call myself a liberal leftist because it fits the base principles well enough that randoms don't get utterly confused and then immediately accuse me of being a communist.

For example, most US liberals don't consider boosting transhumanism to be a core policy, nor are they likely to support the elimination/total transformation of corporations via mass decentralization with the goal of making the jump to resource economics, they aren't going to know what "liquid democracy" is and probably have a flawed conception of cyberdemocracy, support welfare but won't consider basic income policies, are against automation which directly clashes with me, nobody really talks about making Skunkworks projects mainstream (or as I prefer to phrase it: "destigmatizing mad science"), etc.

Let's not even get into what I would do with NASA if I had things my way, suffice it to say that people do not understand the untapped power that lies there nor the true extent of the psychological impact on all human society via the Apollo Program.

In short, I'm so much of a sci-fi nerd that I actually believe it should be used as a basis for directing our civilization, and being that honest about it scares me a little bit.
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SalmonGod

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Re: Bay12 2016 Election Megathread- It Is Terrifying
« Reply #1207 on: April 04, 2015, 09:15:04 pm »

A pretty good amount of the positive stuff we have today is a near-direct product of sci-fi.  In fact, I'd almost say that modern life would be unbearable without the influence it's had. 

80% of U.S. population lives in urban areas, where outdoors activities are quite limited.  You either go to a park and do uninteresting park things, pay a lot to do anything more interesting, or risk getting in trouble for trespassing.  I have to drive almost 2 hours to find a body of water that isn't strictly controlled.  Without our gadgets (the design of which have all been largely directed by the imaginations of sci-fi writers) giving us stuff to do, we would probably be revolting by now out of frustration and boredom with everything being so crowded, monetized, and over-regulated.

And the decline in family structures isn't a complicated issue.  It's because of both parents having to work.  Not being able to or choosing to.  Being required to.  And work being more and more intense and soul-crushing.  Families don't have the time or energy to spend with each other.
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Descan

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Re: Bay12 2016 Election Megathread- It Is Terrifying
« Reply #1208 on: April 04, 2015, 09:29:51 pm »

* Descan is apparently MetalSlimeHunt.

Erm... Hum. Well then.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Bay12 2016 Election Megathread- It Is Terrifying
« Reply #1209 on: April 04, 2015, 09:53:36 pm »

* Descan is apparently MetalSlimeHunt.

Erm... Hum. Well then.
Historically I have been many people, so this is not unreasonable. But I also think we have realized before that we are convergent regarding futurism.
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Descan

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Re: Bay12 2016 Election Megathread- It Is Terrifying
« Reply #1210 on: April 04, 2015, 10:02:34 pm »

Well, anything that you wrote there that I was able to understand, I agree with. So there's that.
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SalmonGod

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Re: Bay12 2016 Election Megathread- It Is Terrifying
« Reply #1211 on: April 04, 2015, 10:09:37 pm »

* Descan is apparently MetalSlimeHunt.

Erm... Hum. Well then.
Historically I have been many people, so this is not unreasonable. But I also think we have realized before that we are convergent regarding futurism.

I mostly agree with your self-summary as well. 

I appreciate gender politics, but they're not of primary importance to me.  Though I understand that this likely wouldn't be the case if I was anything other than a straight cis-gendered white male.

Transhumanism - check
Eliminating corporations / mass decentralization / resource economics - check
More egalitarian forms of democracy - check
Basic income - check
Embrace automation (and whatever else makes labor obsolete) - check
More funding for science - check
Mad science... I don't actually have a problem with, so long as everything is informed and consensual... though I could see my attitude changing case by case
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In the land of twilight, under the moon
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As the end will come so soon
In the land of twilight

Maybe people should love for the sake of loving, and not with all of these optimization conditions.

MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Bay12 2016 Election Megathread- It Is Terrifying
« Reply #1212 on: April 04, 2015, 10:50:25 pm »

I appreciate gender politics, but they're not of primary importance to me.  Though I understand that this likely wouldn't be the case if I was anything other than a straight cis-gendered white male.
I'm not against identity politics per se, but I think that their present form is not particularly useful even to the people whom it focuses on. If the political world has fallen to a toxic singularity of soul-crushing realpolitik then a lot of people whom reject that have fallen into a toxic singularity of idealism and replacing reality with academic social theory. The world's bland neoliberal stasis drives together groups of rejectors who start looking for answers, they then get a sophomore conception of things like intersectionality, radical feminism, critical race theory and at that point they basically go crazy bouncing off each other and we eventually end up with otherkin advocates and people who broke no dissent of their new sacred truth and distrust the entire rest of the world as irredeemably biased.

Meanwhile actual problems in the actual world go unsolved and people outside these singularities look in and see these things, so they vote for Ted Cruz because the left is pretty clearly insane, told you Obama got elected because he was black. And then the realpolitik singularity keeps chipping away at all democracy and liberty because our consumer needs and national security have to come first, the media keeps pressing our amygdalas into overdrive so we'll accept it, people start to not have any hopes or goals beyond instant pleasure, and it goes on and on. Nobody bothers to try to help because the corporations own the government anyway, cynicism rules every aspect of life and we all ascend as edgelords, eternally shitting on all these subhuman jocks who don't know about Metallica because they're obsessed with Eminem West Khalifa from our thrones of angstonium.

God, I need more sleep. Anyway, people should aim for a healthy synthesis of pragmatism and idealism or they both go spinning off into psychosis.
Quote
Mad science... I don't actually have a problem with, so long as everything is informed and consensual... though I could see my attitude changing case by case
I should clarify: "mad science" is my shorthand for shifting some of our resource focus towards extreme innovation projects, the big example for this is Kevin Warwick's Project Cyborg. I understand the need for peer-review and results checking but it seems like we spend the vast majority of our scientific might on that or only very tiny improvements for the sake of a good hypothesis. That should stay because it's important, but we also need more people building particle accelerators and plasma cannons in their basements.
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Angle

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Re: Bay12 2016 Election Megathread- It Is Terrifying
« Reply #1213 on: April 04, 2015, 10:54:42 pm »

Transhumanism - check
Eliminating corporations / mass decentralization / resource economics - check
More egalitarian forms of democracy - check
Basic income - check
Embrace automation (and whatever else makes labor obsolete) - check
More funding for science - check
Mad science... I don't actually have a problem with, so long as everything is informed and consensual... though I could see my attitude changing case by case

Yes, eeeeeexcellent...
« Last Edit: April 04, 2015, 10:58:28 pm by Angle »
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SalmonGod

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Re: Bay12 2016 Election Megathread- It Is Terrifying
« Reply #1214 on: April 04, 2015, 11:07:52 pm »

God, I need more sleep.

But... that post was really fun to read :P
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In the land of twilight, under the moon
We dance for the idiots
As the end will come so soon
In the land of twilight

Maybe people should love for the sake of loving, and not with all of these optimization conditions.
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