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[FearfulJesuit]

Wait, I'm confused about the delegate math here. According to Google, Alabama has 50 delegates up for grabs. Trump has won 28, and none of the other candidates have any delegates.

So...what happened to the other 22 delegates?

[RedKing]

Rubio seems to be edging closer to Cruz in the delegate haul from tonight. Currently the median is 175-144 Cruz-Rubio. Trump has 248, a terrible number compared to what I expected to see from him. He had a chance to land a knockout blow and instead whiffed, despite his seeming dominance in most states. (It's also possible I overestimated the share of delegates given to the statewide winner vs. the per-district delegates, especially in Texas).

@FJ: They may be waiting for the final tally to award the per-district delegates. The 28 might be the take for being statewide winner.

[smjjames]

Hm, this from CNN's liveblog:
"From CNN's Dana Bash: GOP to push Carson for Senate

I was told by a GOP operative that some will go to Ben Carson tonight and try to get him to drop out and run for Senate in Florida -- a seat Marco Rubio is vacating."

Eeh, are they trying to lose that seat? I don't know how well he is doing in Florida in general.

[origamiscienceguy]

Don't trust news about people dropping out duding a primary.

[RedKing]

Bwahahaha...oh that's awesome. Latest polls have Carson at 4% in Florida.


EDIT: Ok, it's pretty much all over but the crying, and Ben Carson's rallying speech about how he has not yet begun to fight. And hey, Rubio gets to have an honest-to-God victory speech, not just a "2nd place is just one spot behind first place!" speech.

Bottom line for the night:

YUUUGE disappointment for the Donald compared to what could have been (at least according to projected tallies)

Better than expected night for Cruz -- solidly won Texas *and* pushed Rubio down enough there to deny him any delegates. And the somewhat surprising pickup in Oklahoma. And beat Rubio in a number of states he was polling poorly in.

Much better than expected night for Rubio -- won Minnesota, and despite finishing 3rd in a lot of places, he had a 2nd place in Georgia and a near-win in Virginia. AND he finishes not that far behind Cruz in the delegate count, which is important for keeping this godawful monstrosity of a Mexican standoff going.

Kasich...better luck next time, guv'nah. He might stay in till Ohio, but there's no real point.

Carson -- Does he even know where he is anymore? Is he just campaigning because he forgot how to do anything else? Or did his hands become possessed and they're making him stay in the race against his will? He's become Jeb's replacement in the political masochism theater.

[smjjames]

Don't trust news about people dropping out duding a primary.

They didn't say Carson was dropping out, just that some people are going to talk to him about it, and yeah, I just looked at the HuffingtonPollster page for Florida and he's way down at like 3.9%. If he can't be competitive with Rubio (the current senator), I don't see how he'd replace him or win in the first place.

[hector13]

Don't trust news about people dropping out duding a primary.

When did you stop supporting Carson, byraway? (if you don't mind me asking)

[smjjames]

Don't trust news about people dropping out duding a primary.

When did you stop supporting Carson, byraway? (if you don't mind me asking)

I don't think he was ever supporting Carson in the first place? Actually, I don't know who he is or was supporting.

[hector13]

Don't trust news about people dropping out duding a primary.

When did you stop supporting Carson, byraway? (if you don't mind me asking)

I don't think he was ever supporting Carson in the first place? Actually, I don't know who he is or was supporting.

It was months ago, but I'm sure it was him.

[origamiscienceguy]

Don't trust news about people dropping out duding a primary.

When did you stop supporting Carson, byraway? (if you don't mind me asking)

He wasn't going to win, so I went with the next best.

[smirk]

Brokered convention!

[smjjames]

Chaos? *shrug* I don't know honestly.

Anyway, Alaska results coming... soonish...

[smjjames]

Carson got his first district, wat. O.o

[mainiac]

lol https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/01/chris-christies-donald-trump-endorsement-has-new-jersey-newspapers-calling-for-his-resignation/

I'm skeptical because it's the fix.  The fix is a well... fix for people who like the illusion of inside knowledge about politics.  I must confess that I was once an avid follower back in the day.  Dont be like a young, foolish me.

So, if Rubio's support collapses (which it seems to have done so), is there a chance that Cruz can steal enough from Trump to force a brokered convention?

Unlikely in a two sided race.

[smjjames]

Well, Carson got his first district in Alaska, which I guess gives him the tiniest amount of legitimacy. He still might not get any delegates anyway due to the 13% threshold.

Looks like it's going to be a fight between Trump and Cruz for much of the rest of it.