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Author Topic: Operation Overlord, Day Five: Game Over! Town, Town-Ally, and Survivor Victory!  (Read 112217 times)

Teneb

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Re: Operation Overlord, Day Five: Day Five: 6/13 Remain
« Reply #705 on: January 23, 2015, 09:20:02 am »

That's a good question. I'd like to think that the kills have been exhausted from non-scum sources, But I don't know.
In the event that there is another kill, then that changes things.

6 people, hopefully one scum left.
If mislynch, and 1 kill, then 4 people, with 1 scum.
If mislynch, and 2 kills, then 3 people, and 1 scum. (actually, that gives even better odds of getting the last scum)

If there are 2 scum left, and 2 kills, then we could very well be screwed.
While we could do that and just try to off people based on odds, I'd rather we go through the usual scumhunting methods. Because if we mislynch and there are two kills, we have a 33% chance of winning... and 66% of losing.

There is also the possibility that we got all the scum and have to deal with anti-town third party (or parties) now.

OSG: do you plan on doing anything with that incrimination ability of yours?
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origamiscienceguy

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Re: Operation Overlord, Day Five: Day Five: 6/13 Remain
« Reply #706 on: January 23, 2015, 09:24:02 am »

I suppose I could incriminate TDS and if Deus wants to investigate him, he can. Or he could just investigate someone else.
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Comrade Shamrock

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Re: Operation Overlord, Day Five: Day Five: 6/13 Remain
« Reply #707 on: January 23, 2015, 10:04:29 am »

Alright, plan time.

There's 2 people that we're unsure of. (assuming that people believe me on being a townie. DA has enough proof he's a cop for me, Origami's claim of being a survivor isn't really too much to argue over at this point, and TDS's status as town from DA's inspection is as reliable as DA is.)

Which leaves Comrade Shamrock and DeathSword.
We have 6 people total, and 2 suspects. So if we lynch one, and it's wrong, we'll be down to 4 people and 1 suspect.
Then we lynch the other, and if we're somehow still wrong, it'll be down to...
2 people. Hmm.

This 1) assumes people are willing to trust me, 2) assumes that the above mentioned people aren't actually scum who have been playing us hard and 3) assumes there is only going to be 1 kill per night, with no blocks or other shenanigans.

So, really, we have leeway to be wrong once. Unless there's actually two scum, and not one left, and then we have no leeway at all.

While I agree with the plan here I suggest one slight amendment we replace my own name with cheese's.  :D

I suspect Deathsword would probably suggest his own variation.

My Role with the flavour:
I am LT George Bowes and I am in command of this unit. My job is to help root out the traitors in my unit. I also have a large say in what goes around here as I am a commissioned officer. Soldiers under my command may not like it, but they have no choice in the matter.

Role: Lieutenant
Wincon: (See all anti-town factions dead)
Abilities:
(Auto) Commissioned Officer: Your vote counts triple when determining who to lynch.  This will not appear in the votecount.

I didn't quote the flavour but it's close enough.

If you want proof I got three votes then what I suggest of a wagon on me of three votes. Then me and someone else vote for either cheese, Deathsword or origami. Then the sixth person will either abstain or for some obscure reason place a one vote wagon on someone else.

Also TDS is quiet. I'm not sure I trust the inno result. GF in play is my thought.

TDS:
I'm a vanilla townie, basically.
As origami already stated "basically" implies a little more. Please do share.

Is anyone aware of this fact of probability:
The greater the number of trials the closer you get to the desired result.

N1: 3 actions (2 Cop invests, believed frame), 1 seen                          (Lookout: mastahcheese)
N2: 4 actions (2 Cop invests, 1 OSG invests Persus, Kill) 1 seen           (Lookout: TDS)
N3: 2 actions (Cop invest, Kill) 1 seen                                                (Lookout: origami)
N4: 2 actions (Cop invest, Kill) 0 seen                                                (Lookout: TDS)

This is the minimum number of actions that could have happened based on what has been claimed. Flabort's have been disregarded due to being scum. So no doc's, rb'ers and assuming could only choose to kill or frame. N3 I have assumed the scum did nothing while origami claims he shot him.

Out of a grand total of 11 actions and possibly more we have spotted 3. Close to a quarter of results. While it is a small sample and highly prone to inaccuracy I still find it beyond belief that we saw so little.

Closer examination of the facts:
1st action reveal
Mastahcheese reveals Flabort was targeted. He states that Tolyk is positively giddy about it. Reveals Tolyk targeted Flabort. Could have guessed.

2nd action reveal
Deus jumped the gun and revealed. TDS claims Deus did. Could have been a been a lie that he saw anything.

3rd action reveal
Origami claims he saw Deus visit TDS. No clues were given to suggest this.
Is unlikely to be a guess.

4th night nothing revealed
Nothing more.

So I think this points to TDS lying considering he had the most chances to see something. Of course, numbers could hate him.

Other points:
He has not posted a list of reads this late into the game. If I'm wrong someone please find it and show me. Seems like he's not worried about dying. His suspicions aren't going to help town if they're not shared.
He has not made a case.

Points I have brought up before:
He has done nothing, absolutely nothing in terms of scumhunting. The only serious questions he asked were set up spec and questions to make me back off when I threw suspicion his way.
He has many posts but they mainly seem to be fluff posts. A lot of them were one or two liners.

Now does anyone agree with me? Because I find TDS scummier than any of the non-confirmeds.

If you feel I'm raving like a lunatic please tell me and we can proceed with whatever course of action the commune finds acceptable.

origamiscienceguy

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Re: Operation Overlord, Day Five: Day Five: 6/13 Remain
« Reply #708 on: January 23, 2015, 10:09:53 am »

So the only person who has not claimed is Comeade Shamrock
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origamiscienceguy

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Re: Operation Overlord, Day Five: Day Five: 6/13 Remain
« Reply #709 on: January 23, 2015, 10:10:12 am »

ooo, you ninja'd me.
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Comrade Shamrock

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Re: Operation Overlord, Day Five: Day Five: 6/13 Remain
« Reply #710 on: January 23, 2015, 10:18:51 am »

Origami:
I love the way you keep misspelling the names.

First it was mustahcheese, then Darksword, I've also seen Comerade and Comeade.

origamiscienceguy

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Re: Operation Overlord, Day Five: Day Five: 6/13 Remain
« Reply #711 on: January 23, 2015, 10:22:24 am »

Now that everybody has claimed
Deus Asmoth: Cop
TheDarkStar: "basically" VT
Mastahcheese: VT
DeathSwords: VT
Comerade Shamrok: triplevote
Origamiscienceguy: JOAT

In regards to you lookout scince, remember that silthuri investigated night 1, and protected on night 2.

Also, I find i strange that the mafia has not gone after Deus this whole time. I have a few theories.

1. The mafia do not have a NK, or they have a limited NK. This does not explain the deaths on night 2 and 3 though.

2. DA is a mafia who has been playing us hard the whole time, trying to get us to lynch town, such as Caz, and protect mafia, such as TDS :o. If DA and TDS are both mafia, then that brings the total up to 4 which is almost one third of the total players.

3. Maybe both!! The mafia get lots of people, but to balance the game, they get a limited number of shots.
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4maskwolf

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Re: Operation Overlord, Day Five: Day Five: 6/13 Remain
« Reply #712 on: January 23, 2015, 10:24:29 am »

A few comments:

I think I forgot to say something earlier, when mastahcheese noted that Comrade Shamrock was near the back of the voting list on some despite voting them early.  For personal bookeeping purposes, I order people by when they entered the game, so your order on the votecount has no relation to when you actually voted.

origamiscienceguy, please make an effort to spell people's names correctly, I'm trying to read the posts in my email half the time and it's hard enough without people's names being mispelled.

Alright, that's all I have to say, please return to your regularly scheduled game of mafia.

origamiscienceguy

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Re: Operation Overlord, Day Five: Day Five: 6/13 Remain
« Reply #713 on: January 23, 2015, 10:28:21 am »

Origami:
I love the way you keep misspelling the names.

First it was mustahcheese, then Darksword, I've also seen Comerade and Comeade.
for the longest time, I though his name was mustache+cheese=mustacheese
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origamiscienceguy

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Re: Operation Overlord, Day Five: Day Five: 6/13 Remain
« Reply #714 on: January 23, 2015, 10:45:00 am »

anyways, I'll try to spell their names correctly.

Pracice:
Comrade Shamrock
Deus Asmoth
Mastahcheese
TheDarkStar
Dethsword

did I misspell any?
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origamiscienceguy

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Re: Operation Overlord, Day Five: Day Five: 6/13 Remain
« Reply #715 on: January 23, 2015, 10:45:21 am »

*Deathsword*

oops.
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Deus Asmoth

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Re: Operation Overlord, Day Five: Day Five: 6/13 Remain
« Reply #716 on: January 23, 2015, 12:06:12 pm »

Huh. I really thought Shamrock was a doctor. Hrm.

TDS, I'd like to know what 'basically' means in that context as well.

(Also, I like how people seem to think I'm Keyser Soze or something.)
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Teneb

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Re: Operation Overlord, Day Five: Day Five: 6/13 Remain
« Reply #717 on: January 23, 2015, 01:06:21 pm »

What Comrade Shamrock said does make sense.

TDS, you are by far the least active here and it was indeed curious that you said "basically" vanilla instead of just vanilla outright. Sure, Deus got a town result on you, but if there were players that could incriminate someone, then there might be a godfather as well.

Furthermore, I'd like to suggest origamiscienceguy for lookout. If whomever we lynch isn't the last anti-town player, and OSG is a survivor, I'd rather if he was not in a position where he could end up using his last remaining one-shot, possibly affecting Deus' results.
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4maskwolf

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Re: Operation Overlord, Day Five: Day Five: 6/13 Remain
« Reply #718 on: January 23, 2015, 01:46:07 pm »

Holy shit I finally got on a computer and checked my game document and the fricking thing is 17 pages long.

Unfortunate Accident Voting:
mastahcheese(0):
TheDarkStar(1): Deathsword
Deathsword(0):
origamiscienceguy(0):
Comrade Shamrock(0):
Deus Asmoth(0):
No Lynch(0):
Not Voting: mastahcheese, TheDarkStar, origamiscienceguy, Comrade Shamrock, Deus Asmoth

Lookout Voting:
mastahcheese(0):
TheDarkStar(0):
Deathsword(0):
origamiscienceguy(1): Deathsword
Comrade Shamrock(0):
Deus Asmoth(0):
Not Voting: mastahcheese, TheDarkStar, origamiscienceguy, Comrade Shamrock, Deus Asmoth

origamiscienceguy

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Re: Operation Overlord, Day Five: Day Five: 6/13 Remain
« Reply #719 on: January 23, 2015, 03:04:28 pm »

Deathsword, I was going to use my last ability on TDS to prove that I had it, but I understand if you want me on watch. Can you please post your flavor text?

TheDarkStar, are you a doctor? A roleblocker? a VT? please say what you are and give your flavor text?

Deus Asmoth, can you please post your flavor text?

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