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[Erkki]

F-15 vs. F-15 ending up 300 to 0 for USAF would be amusing.

[Zangi]

Ok I am going to ask a dumb question here...

Why is it taking so long to deal with ISIS?

Is it the same reason as most? lots of land to cover, underground, bad terrain?

I'd wager it's cause there are many sides with conflicting goals. 
The US won't work with Syria/Iran and their fighters are not only fighting ISIS, but also Syria/Iran.  Plus, they were a huge mess early on.
There be the Kurds who are fighting ISIS, but also taking hits from Turkish backed fighters.
So yea, probably some others. 
And Iran/Syria favoured curbstomping the US backed rebels early on, for obvious reasons.

[smjjames]

They haven't actually declared war yet, not sure they actually want to go to war with Quatar. It's closer to an alliance member saying something really dumb and needing to be diplomatically smacked upside the head.

Though from the sound of it, it's a bit loose of an alliance and tensions have been going for some time.

[Sheb]

It's more than diplomatic smack: it's a complete sea/air/land cutting of ties. That cuts Qatar's only land border. I dunno how much of Qatar's import flow through SA/UAE, but it's going to hurt.

[smjjames]

Here we go, Trump disses another ally without knowing the full facts. Is it me or my liberal bias or does it almost sound like he is itching for things to come to blows?

And of course, he likely has absolutely no understanding of Quatars geopolitical role in the region, which complicates things further.

[Erkki]

Of course he knows what Qatar is and where. He has a thousand smart heads helping him and he probably doesnt even think about middle East daily. For now I dont think we have full idea about what exactly the intents are. But one can probably guess some of the whys just looking at geographic and economic stats regardless of whats Qatar has been or hasnt been doing.

Maybe he fed an ally to a bigger ally(to annex or to bully) to buy loyalty from the bigger one, Saudis.

[smjjames]

Of course he knows what Qatar is and where. He has a thousand smart heads helping him and he probably doesnt even think about middle East daily. For now I dont think we have full idea about what exactly the intents are. But one can probably guess some of the whys just looking at geographic and economic stats regardless of whats Qatar has been or hasnt been doing.

Maybe he fed an ally to a bigger ally(to annex or to bully) to buy loyalty from the bigger one, Saudis.

I think you're giving him and his staff too much credit. Not to mention seeming to undermine Tillersons attempts to get things to calm down when Trump is using escalatory rhetoric.

Also, does feeding a smaller ally to a bigger ally just to gain loyalty from the bigger ally, sound like something you'd like your ally to do? I can totally see him cheering Saudi Arabia on as it annexes Quatar, if that's what it comes to. Though SA and friends are playing the 'siege and isolate into submission' game atm.

[Erkki]

Saudis want to become the king of the hill in middle East. Oil prices wont be coming up any more and their import-export balance is significantly defit and they never improved their economy, health nor education much. Basically they're a stupidly big and rich banana state.

What they've done in the past 5 or so years is turn capital into weapons at quicker rate than anyone else in the world. They're going to use those shiny new toys and not just in Yemen(where they fight the shiite Iran) or Syria, sooner or later.

[Sheb]

Yeah, it makes no sense to spend 10% on GDP on defense if you don't plan to fight a war.

[Vilanat]

In our little neighborhood, it also makes sense to do so in order to deter others from starting a war against you.

I still hope this little escalation would miraculously lead to the cancellation of Qatar 2022.

[Erkki]

In our little neighborhood, it also makes sense to do so in order to deter others from starting a war against you.

I still hope this little escalation would miraculously lead to the cancellation of Qatar 2022.

I almost forgot about Qatar 2022.

Comon Saudis.

[Descan]

I mean they *are* trying to improve their non-oil economy. No idea if they're *succeeding* mind you, but one of the close royal family (by their definition, considering they switch the crown through brothers before going to the next generation, a cousin actually matters, but I'm not sure of his relation to the current King) made expanding the non-oil economy and making an actual base of knowledge and infrastructure one of his pet concerns.

Again, no idea how well that's *working* but someone of influence and in ministerial position of power is actually trying.

[Erkki]

I mean they *are* trying to improve their non-oil economy. No idea if they're *succeeding* mind you, but one of the close royal family (by their definition, considering they switch the crown through brothers before going to the next generation, a cousin actually matters, but I'm not sure of his relation to the current King) made expanding the non-oil economy and making an actual base of knowledge and infrastructure one of his pet concerns.

Again, no idea how well that's *working* but someone of influence and in ministerial position of power is actually trying.

Yeah I exaggerated a little, but their attempts are not working very well. Similar to their military adventures so far.

[Sheb]

What's that? GDP?

But yeah, the modernization agenda largely stalled at the same time as their Yemeni war. There are still some little things going forward. The Economist recently ran a piece about the first concert in 30 years in Riyadh being organized as part of an intiitative to create an entertainment industry.

[Erkki]

Sorry, its the Saudi exports.