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[sprinkled chariot]

Starting nuclear WW3 = launching your nukes first

West has no reason to do this because it will win a conventional war.

Ehm, what do you mean by winning conventional war? Stars and stripes over cremlin?

[Loud Whispers]

Yeah, that's why in the sentence after this i stated that i think the Russians are right to not want to negotiate with Ahrar al sham and Jaish Al Islam. it still doesn't mean peace talks without those parties would be effective. these are, after all, the majority of the local players involved in this civil war. so it's not that i think we should send them an invitation in the mail, it's that i think there is no point in wasting time pretending there are peace talks. there aren't.

The obstacle to ISIS's destruction is not military might, because they are severely strained economically, manpower and materiel-wise. The obstacle is all of us trying to decide who else should be destroyed, to that end peace talks can get somewhere. Probably won't, but there's no harm in trying.

How on earth could such redundant peace talks help unfuck the middle east?

In the unlikely event of a grand coalition BRRRTTTTTTTTTTT'ing Jihadists

Because ISIS is a symptom and removing this symptom from Syria would not cure the disease even if it could temporarily ease the pain.

Oh most certainly, but one does not cure a disease whilst ignoring the poison it produces, you must cure the disease and neutralize the poison or else the patient will die irregardless of whether you cure them

[Ukrainian Ranger]

As for Russia winning the ground war in Ukraine... It is not February 2014 when Russia could take whole Ukraine within weeks. Now we have a real army and while one on one war will be lost (mostly because our air-defence and air force are noticeably inferior to Russian. ), Russia will need to ruin its own economy (even with no Western sanctions) to win and have a lot of fun with resistance afterwards.

So Poroshenko's government actually is noticeably less corrupt than all the Ukrainian governments before it? Neat!

By the way, how are the other internal reforms coming?

http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=153622.msg6781417#msg6781417

[Helgoland]

Thanks!

[Loud Whispers]

Syrian army and allies breaks rebel siege of Shi'ite towns

The Syrian army and its allies have broken a three-year rebel siege of two Shi’ite towns in northwest Syria, government and rebel groups said on Wednesday, cutting off a main insurgent route to nearby Turkey.

The two towns of Nubul and Zahraa, with an estimated 60,000 population, are connected to the border by areas under the control of Kurdish militias that provided them some access.

Al Manar, television channel of Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group, joined Syria's army and state media in reporting the breakthrough, which it said came after the army moved in from towns secured in a recent offensive in northern Aleppo province.

A Levant Front rebel said the siege was broken "after three days of legendary resistance by the revolutionaries facing the Russian military machine, an after more than 500 raids by Russian air planes".

Well I was right, all the Syrians needed was air support, not the West trying to bomb them, for them to utterly destroy ISIS.

"Ending the siege means the supply route to terrorists from Turkey to Aleppo has been severed," a Syrian military source said.

Syria's state-run news channel Al-Ikhbariyah quoted Nubul mayor Ali Balawi as saying the siege by mainly Islamist rebels was "cruel and caused much hardship", with severe shortages of humanitarian goods. The only route that brought some food and essential goods came from Afrin to the north of the town.

Remember when I posted the earlier announcement that the US-coalition air strikes had crippled ISIS's ability to fund itself by striking its oil fields? The one with the beautiful video of the Royal Air Force plane blowing up one of its caches full of dollars, leading to an explosive fireball of raining money? In that source:
(here by the way)
ISIS had to halve the pay of their fighters and their one consolation to their fighters was that supplies would be delivered as usual, so to keep morale high. Now due to Western strikes they have half pay and due to Russian strikes no supply deliveries. What wonder it is when the East and the West cooperate, or at the very least, fight against the same side. Now we just need to stop Libyan Islamists and their supply route to central Africa.

[Loud Whispers]

Saudi Arabia and Turkey coordinating military to destroy ISIS
Whilst committed nonetheless to the removal of the Syrian regime, promising military pressure on Damascus which is not where fucking ISIS is, so no surprises there. Mohammad bin Salman is the defence minister of Saudi Arabia and is the youngest defence minister in the world. He was placed in that position as a result of King Salman's reorganization of the country's bureaucracy... Some call a palace coup, as it strengthened the Sudairis clan. Lacking legitimacy as the crown prince (as the heir apparent should have been from another clan), Mohammad bin Salman was made defence minister, to gain control of the military and gain legitimacy with real leadership credentials. In Mohammad bin Salman's inexperience he has led Saudi Arabia on an aggressive intervention heavy foreign policy, one Saudi Arabia's ground forces are ill-trained and ill-organized to fight, with their recent fun times in Yemen being such an example. Mohammad bin Salman may actually be young and foolish enough to go to war with Syria, being neither experienced or educated in any of the jobs he has been granted. We're one step closer to WWIII, let's hope someone wise is there to avert it.

[TheDarkStar]

What's required to consider a war WWIII? Numbers of: Soldiers? Deaths? Nations? Physical area that is covered? All-out civilization-ending nuclear annihilation?

[Loud Whispers]

I don't think naming it and defining it matters, just as trying to date which overlapping war was the start of WWII matters. If it happens, it's bad for the world over

And even if it's just devastating carnage localized to the ME and its surroundings, I don't think the fact that the Aussies and Americas are unaffected will be much consolation

[Loud Whispers]

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

The Syrian air force is currently dropping leaflets in Homs and other rebel alreas

Translation:
"The war is coming to an end, It will be sad to all of us if it ends with the death of people you love or with the destruction of your home. The Command of Syrian Arab Army offers you to spare blood and to avoid that destiny by expelling the strangers and foreign fighters from your area. There will be secure passages for them. The local fighters who stood in the face of the state will be given pardon, provided that they will give away their weapons and let out the foreign fighters. After that, their situation will be settled immediately and those who left their homes will go back to them. The chance to accept this offer is open till the 4th of march. In case of refusal, the conciliation stops and all the military operations which can lead to huge, but avoidable losses shall be continued. Keep your lives and your homes like the people of Al Hamidia did. Choosing the way of peace and safe life is much better than choosing the way of war. General Command of Syrian Arab Army"

They're trying to play on the rift between foreign and home fighters, the sneaky breeki Syrians

[martinuzz]

They're trying to play on the rift between foreign and home fighters, the sneaky breeki Syrians

They want to be more like EU

[Bauglir]

What's required to consider a war WWIII? Numbers of: Soldiers? Deaths? Nations? Physical area that is covered? All-out civilization-ending nuclear annihilation?

it's like pornography

hard to define, but you'll know it when you see it

[Vilanat]

Russia bombing of the Sunni held towns resulted in driving the rebels out, but also in creating refugees varying in numbers between 20-200K, depends on the source, all moving in stocks to the Turkish border. These people will not stop in Turkey so expect a hot summer in Euroba.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=go_J8dCEC8w
http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/nato-warns-airstrikes-undermining-syria-peace-efforts-thousands-flee-aleppo-799466800

Since around 75K already arrived in 2016, which is an increase compared to January 2015, it is very reasonable to expect an additional 2M refugees pouring into Europe this year.

[Zangi]

Its like... war is still happening, people leave/become refugees and will continue to do so cause war...
But specific events, like increased fighting/contesting/bombing over an area brings up a temporary uptick on the number of people becoming refugees from that area.

Will it end the war any faster?  *Shrug*
Will the war continue to drag on anyways? Yea

[Loud Whispers]

This year's estimate was 3M so 2M is an improvement, plus you're gonna get to a point where there's guards on Turkey, fences on Israel, Lebanon's full, Libya's fucked, Egypt maybe but not for long, Saudi Arabia is Saudi Arabia and no one's going from Syria to Iraq, so what happens then? You gotta end the war before it ends itself then

They're trying to play on the rift between foreign and home fighters, the sneaky breeki Syrians

They want to be more like EU

EU absorption of ME wen?

What's required to consider a war WWIII? Numbers of: Soldiers? Deaths? Nations? Physical area that is covered? All-out civilization-ending nuclear annihilation?

it's like pornography
hard to define, but you'll know it when you see it

It's also a spectacle that brings shame upon all involved

[Strife26]

It requires the mobilization of the world's great powers. Once most of the production in the world is going to the war, it's a world war.