The risk is 1) losing control of the project as a whole, 2) losing donations and 3) being forced to collaborate more than he wants to.
Right, so if we apply those to:
A) Modular GUI:
1) If it is indeed modular, then Toady could go in and make his own module later without breaking anybody else's or being obligated to change his vision for the GUI based on anybody else's, so he isn't losing control.
2) Surely donations would increase with a variety of GUI options that make different groups of people happy and attracted to the game.
3) A modular GUI does require some collaboration, but really only on technical aspects in setting it up. Once a basic syntax and interface is established, he can just add new graphics-relevant things to it without having to collaborate. So yes a risk, but seemingly a small, one-time risk in terms of actual required collaboration.
B) Raws:
1) How do you lose much control by letting players change the freezing point of water to 15 degrees hotter if they want, or add new creatures? There is some minor risk in people getting attached to their raws and then having to redo them and not enjoying the downtime, but raws are generally extremely easy to port over.
2) Again, surely donations would increase if people had more versions they could choose to tailor to their specific preferences.
3) This requires no collaboration, really, outside of spending a little time here and there documenting what some of the more confusing tags do.
C) true gameplay variable access API:
Definitely much higher risk on all 3 counts, but who is asking for this?
DFHack's UI plugins provide a whole bunch of improvements that make one's UI experience enjoyable in every way.
Um, it took YEARS for somebody to figure out how to (or bother to) do something as simple as making a separate icon for every item type... which has since then taken a month or two and still isn't in fully documented stable release. what are you talking about? Something like that would be maybe a half hour project and done more efficiently to boot with a modular GUI.
Nothing dfhack offers (when it isn't down after an update, mind you) remotely approaches the amount of sleek awesomeness we could have with a modular GUI. In a fraction of the time, and with far more stability and no busy work fixing already-implemented features all the time.
No, Toady is saying that if he adds army movements, he then has to support it in the API.
Not if he doesn't have an actual API, which again, nobody seems to be asking for for gameplay stuff like armies.