Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[flabort]

If the dark magus can do culty things N1, then we can't take Toaster for granted as safe.  HOWEVER, the dark magus will be one of the four people who have yet to be revealed.

I find it likely that the Dark Magus does have some sort of apprentice or assistant. It may be that they started the game with it, though, and do not have a convert. It may be that they do, though.

Wait the dark Magus is only 1 person. Hmm

Yes, my power mentioned one person. But it didn't mention whether that one person was likely to be working with anyone else or not. Let's give it a 65% chance, to ballpark it.

I'm not sure whether to believe Wolf's claim just yet (I find Toaster and Toony very suspicious), can anyone corroborate this?

I'm not completely convinced either, but I'm willing to. I felt them suspicious before, too, but if 4mask is right it makes the puzzle pieces all fit mostly right.

I'm building a list of reads right now, but from the information in it, I'm going to vote Hapah. And Ottofar is still absent.

[Mephansteras]

Would it be possible to have a scumteam made up of entirely of disparate third-party killers, meph?

Yes. However, they would still flip as all being part of a team as opposed to showing up as serial killers.

[Jim Groovester]

Bah.

[ToonyMan]

Would it be possible to have a scumteam made up of entirely of disparate third-party killers, meph?

Yes. However, they would still flip as all being part of a team as opposed to showing up as serial killers.

So what you're saying is that the SK Werebear wouldn't have a team, but the Necromancer may have allies?

[Mephansteras]

Would it be possible to have a scumteam made up of entirely of disparate third-party killers, meph?

Yes. However, they would still flip as all being part of a team as opposed to showing up as serial killers.

So what you're saying is that the SK Werebear wouldn't have a team, but the Necromancer may have allies?

No, they were both serial killers. I'd put SK next to the werebear to show it wasn't a town or scum role. I can stick SK next to the Necromancer as well, though, for clarity.

[flabort]

My reads as they are now:

Toony Claimed Priest. Declared town by 4mask. Was right about MOWG being Necro, as was Jim.
Earlier attacks towards 4mask and ZU, IG day 3. Contradicted by IG, but IG was SK.
Almost garunteed town.

Flabort Claimed Sage. Is super nice and super town.

Persus Pointed out there can be evil Mages. Hardly damning, but relevant to my power's most recent information. Doesn't think me capable of good flavor (won me my first ever game, though).
Seems to be well reasoned during Day 3. I can't count the number of times someone has replied "that's true" to him.
Seems pretty town to me.

NQT Declared town by 4mask. Suspects Toony and Toaster. Except defended toaster day 3 due to Toaster not voting IG?
Prevented Persus from lynching ZU a second time. Paranoid about a cult, justified from past experience. Defended MOWG to a degree.
Probably town? Seems suspicious now. Huh.

Tiruin/Hapah Hapah is usually at work. Never understood IG's fakeclaim.
Seemed to know that MOWE would never actually cooperate with town, and that she's a threat to scum. OK, obvious points, but they feel odd. Seems a bit lazy, but not very.
Probably scum.

Toaster Declared town by 4mask. I previously suspected him of being scum, but my gut was thrown off him for reasons I do not understand when MOWE claimed. Less gut suspision when 4mask claimed, too.
Brought up possibility of cross kill. Didn't want to trust a SK. Maybe converted.
Seems town right now, unless he was converted.

ZU Claimed Sexton. Resurected by Toony. Said she needs to rethink everything, reviving her was a bad idea. Says its because she's been useless.
Maybe a little vague but nowhere near IG's level of useless. Posts are short but to the point. Makes sense, instead of confusing matters.
Believable town.

4mask/TWS/4mask Claimed Seer. Staking life on claim. As WetSheep, seemed lazy, but tried not bo be. Voted IG for purposes of a flip being better than nothing.
I used to be confident in their townyness and still am.

Ottofar Completely dissapeared.
So probably scum.

[flabort]

Ottofar If you happen to show up  , please claim.

Persus13 As one of the people who doesn't have a claim or is not protected by 4mask's claim, you are apparently one of the suspects. If you had a kill right now, who would you kill next? If you had a protect, who would you protect next? What are your current reads?

Hapah If you were to control the lynch today, where would you direct it?

NQT What does your collection of reads tell you right now? What are your own reads at this time?

[ToonyMan]

First role-claims, then reads.

ToonyMan - Town Priest
flabort - Town Sage
Persus13 - ???
notquitethere - ???
Hapah - ???
Toaster - ???
zombie urist - Town Sexton
4maskwolf - Town Seer
Ottofar - ???

I don't believe there's more than 3 scum at most left, and they should all be part of this scum team. I think everybody who's claimed so far can be believed with the most suspicious being Flabort.

Scum

Ottofar - Zero commitment. Talk.
Persus13 - Weird behavior and questions, would like them to talk.
Hapah - Posts seem okay enough, if they're scum they're the most competent player they have. Mainly labeling them scum from process of elimination.

Middle Ground

Flabort - Giving us useful information, pretty sure they're town.
Toaster - Town inspected by 4mask N1, could have changed by now.

Town

4maskwolf - I believe their claim, the "you can lynch me to prove it" line being quite genuine.
Notquitethere - Town inspected by 4mask N3.
Zombie Urist - I'm confident my revive worked.

[notquitethere]

It's quite late where I am and I want to sleep before making any stupid decisions while not at my full capacity. I'm pleased there's so many claims we can work off of. I really want to hear what Hapah, Persus and Ottofar have to say.

Wolf

In order for your theory to be correct, then the cult would have to be me, Flabort, and quite probably the two people you find suspicious.  However, this implies that Flabort just came up with information for us every day on the fly and used it to connect back into the game.  I highly doubt this, and as such am inclined to save Flabort for last if we lynch everyone else and they are not scum.

I didn't say anything about Flabort. I think they're probably relaying legitimate information. There obviously is a magic themed foe in our midst. That doesn't mean it doesn't have a one-shot conversion.

If the dark magus can do culty things N1, then we can't take Toaster for granted as safe.  HOWEVER, the dark magus will be one of the four people who have yet to be revealed.

If I trust you, sure. I'm just worried that we are at LYLO and this is a clever scum ruse to force a final mislynch and bring the game on home. It would be exactly the kind of gambit a Toony-Wolf-Toaster team would come up with. There's so much I need to look back over, and so little time.

Flabort

I wanted to find out why Jack was burnt to a crisp, according to my ability. I "swam through a sea" of information, myriad books and texts. As I made connections between various journals and scraps, my heart apparently sank.
The only explanation is a Dark Magus (This was bolded in my PM), a person of "considerable power", who presumably doesn't have town's best interests at heart.
I then don't sleep very well, because while I know my enemy, I may not be able to face someone of that great power.

So this leads me to believe that our scum team is one really strong person, or one strong person and their weak lackey. This is probably not a cult, no. This is, however, a new team for Supernatural, I believe, true to the guesses from the charred corpse.

We were informed that there would be a new element and this is compatible. Scum teams often have a leader figure and several lackeys. I believe your info is probably legit.

Toaster, assuming 4mask is telling the truth, you are safe. Sorry for suspecting you.
4mask I don't count as confirmed? OK, I guess not, but I guess this means I have to work harder to maintain your trust.

This toadying makes me nervous.

NQT What does your collection of reads tell you right now? What are your own reads at this time?

I need to take time to go over things. I already said how I felt about everyone yesterday, I want to believe Wolf's claim: it'd make our job like shooting fish in a barrel. But my trust doesn't so readily pour forth. It feels too easy.

Except defended toaster day 3 due to Toaster not voting IG?

That's a misreading of what I was saying. I was saying IG was very unlikely to be scum given that only one person (Toaster) had never voted for him. And I was right. That doesn't say anything about Toaster.


ZU

NQT if you believe this to be lylo why aren't you pushing for a massclam?

I believe it might be. I'm still working things out. I want to sleep on this, but some kind of co-ordinated claiming is probably what we want to do.

Toony

I've mentioned this a lot, but it's possible that Jack AT blocked the N1 kill.

Do you think Jack would have discerned a player N1 and protected them?

A one-shot conversion is also possible, but then that means we'd only have to watch out for Toaster. We can force him to claim if we have to.

Your utter conviction in this makes me suspicious.

I don't believe there's more than 3 scum at most left, and they should all be part of this scum team. I think everybody who's claimed so far can be believed with the most suspicious being Flabort.

Roles might be believed but not alignments. It all hinges on whether Wolf is scum and there's only one way of finding that out.

[Hapah]

I have no information regarding any of the claims.

Persus13, Hapah, and Ottofar as our scum team. Anybody have any problems with this? Specifically, the people I'm accusing.

Are you asking if the accused have any problems with it, or if anyone else has problems with who you are accusing? Assuming the latter but wanted to check, since the former is rather obvious, lol.

There was no kill on N1, so some form of Charismatic Cult seems dangerously possible.

I've mentioned this a lot, but it's possible that Jack AT blocked the N1 kill.

Both are definitely possible; but I feel that the difference is mostly academic at this point (unless we get some sort of smoking gun, like a player being tracked visiting someone N1 who ends up flipping cult and the visitor doesn't have an alibi). I very much doubt a full blown cult (2 SK's + another killer + full Cult doesn't seem very plausible), but a 1-shot could definitely be in the cards.

That means we need to lynch scum today or lose.

I don't think there's any way the game ends today/tonight. That'd require the setup to be something like 7 (or 8-1, converted) town/4 (or 3+1, convert) scum/2 SK's, right? That doesn't seem balanced to me.

Notquitethere:
In order for your theory to be correct, then the cult would have to be me, Flabort, and quite probably the two people you find suspicious.  However, this implies that Flabort just came up with information for us every day on the fly and used it to connect back into the game.  I highly doubt this, and as such am inclined to save Flabort for last if we lynch everyone else and they are not scum.

I don't think people lose their roles when they get converted, though, which would make flabort a very interesting conversion choice since he claimed D1. Not a very powerful role for a cult but he'd be hard to get lynched.

Hapah If you were to control the lynch today, where would you direct it?

I want to make sure that I've got the big picture right before I answer that. Ottofar would be easy but I don't think he'd be a good choice, and flabort has provided good Sage info. So I guess Persus? But the team has to be at least two, and if it's any 3 or any 2-man team other than Persus/Ottofar then something fishy is going on (flabort convert or sneaky play, Toaster convert, 4mask being scum, something like that). But the little bit of digging I did makes 4mask's claims seem genuine enough (he didn't look at Ottofar N1 even though he was voting him at day end, but since Otto was lurking I could understand that and probably would have done a similar play myself. He was voting Toony at end of D2 and claims he investigated him that night, which is exactly what you'd expect).

Anyone: So Sages essentially return town/not-town?  A Town Vig would return benign but a Scum Vig would return non-benign? Am I interpreting that correctly? Can scum inspect as benign?

So if 4mask is on the up-and-up, then NQT/Toony (+ZU by extension of revive) are town, and Toaster is probably town unless you put stock in a convert (and even if you do, there are better targets). That'd leave flabort/Persus/me/Ottofar as possible scummies, with an outside chance of Toaster.

[4maskwolf]

Okay, here's my view on this whole scenario:

As I've said, I'm willing to hand myself over to whatever fate you would wish on me in order to prove my claims.  I do not believe we are at LYLO today, so lynching me would not be the worst thing that has happened in a game.

NQT: you know the reason why I inspected you?  Because I was sure you were scum.  You were arguing to keep a necromancer alive with a scumteam of unknown size and abilities in play.  I was going to announce two confirmed town and one confirmed scum this morning.

And then you came back town.

The game is late enough that the town cannot be fighting amongst itself.  If you need proof of my claims, lynch me: I won't resist.  But we can't have a divided town this late in the game.

I believe that Persus13 should be the first player to go because, other than Ottofar the lurker, he reads the most scummy to me.  As such, he should be the one we off first.

This is likely my last day regardless, but I hope that the information I have provided will lead to a town victory after my demise.

That's about all I have to say for today.  If anyone has any specific questions they want to ask me, I will of course answer them.

[Tiruin]

This is likely my last day regardless, but I hope that the information I have provided will lead to a town victory after my demise.

*hugs*
...Hopefully this isn't out-of-mafia o-o

[4maskwolf]

This is likely my last day regardless, but I hope that the information I have provided will lead to a town victory after my demise.

*hugs*
...Hopefully this isn't out-of-mafia o-o

LOLZ no I wouldn't be posting that if it actually was, I would be posting a replacement request.  I meant in game.

[ToonyMan]

@NQT:

If the dark magus can do culty things N1, then we can't take Toaster for granted as safe.  HOWEVER, the dark magus will be one of the four people who have yet to be revealed.

If I trust you, sure. I'm just worried that we are at LYLO and this is a clever scum ruse to force a final mislynch and bring the game on home. It would be exactly the kind of gambit a Toony-Wolf-Toaster team would come up with. There's so much I need to look back over, and so little time.

It would be a clever gambit, but from my perspective it's impossible.

Toony

I've mentioned this a lot, but it's possible that Jack AT blocked the N1 kill.

Do you think Jack would have discerned a player N1 and protected them?

Yes.

A one-shot conversion is also possible, but then that means we'd only have to watch out for Toaster. We can force him to claim if we have to.

Your utter conviction in this makes me suspicious.

I'll concede that our scum team could have a one-shot convert at most, if they used it signs all point to it being N1. This would mean that Toaster is the only possible candidate, not you or me. Your suspicion of me has been wasted since the game started.

Also, I am not suspecting a 4mask-NQT-Toaster scum team at all, wouldn't that be a similar situation?

I don't believe there's more than 3 scum at most left, and they should all be part of this scum team. I think everybody who's claimed so far can be believed with the most suspicious being Flabort.

Roles might be believed but not alignments. It all hinges on whether Wolf is scum and there's only one way of finding that out.

Wolf is probably town. I'm not against lynching him to confirm his alignment, but I'm not going to push that lynch.


@Hapah:

Persus13, Hapah, and Ottofar as our scum team. Anybody have any problems with this? Specifically, the people I'm accusing.

Are you asking if the accused have any problems with it, or if anyone else has problems with who you are accusing? Assuming the latter but wanted to check, since the former is rather obvious, lol.

@Persus13: Are you okay with being lynched via process of elimination? Have any analysis to give?
@Hapah: Are you okay with being lynched via process of elimination? Have any analysis to give?
@Ottofar: Are you okay with being lynched via process of elimination? Have any analysis to give?


@4maskwolf:

NQT: you know the reason why I inspected you?  Because I was sure you were scum.  You were arguing to keep a necromancer alive with a scumteam of unknown size and abilities in play.  I was going to announce two confirmed town and one confirmed scum this morning.
And then you came back town.

Yeah, I have to admit that's pretty surprising. I think NQT is being too paranoid. But I'll believe your inspect. All of your inspect choices seem legit (there could be an Illusionist but arrugh).


Persus13 does seem like a good lynch since he's been around to answer questions, what say you?

[ToonyMan]

I think you're informed if you're redirected anyway?