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[My Name is Immaterial]

So it is. Update in 6 hours.

[My Name is Immaterial]

Updated.

[My Name is Immaterial]

Updated.

I've also started to poke around with the prediction algorithms again. Doing a field test today: the algorithm suggests that there should be between 1400 and 1746 posts today. The low number of posts on the 29th is weighting the data weirdly, but it's actually not affecting the prediction too much.

I've run the algorithm over the data for about a year and a half, and its margin of error is about +/- 225 posts, and an average of +/- 11% off. That's not really great yet. I'm still working on refining it; I'd really like to see the margin get down to +/- 100 posts.

[chaotic skies]

If you try hard enough and give the algorithm enough data you might be able to get the exact number a time or two

[Dirst]

Updated.

I've also started to poke around with the prediction algorithms again. Doing a field test today: the algorithm suggests that there should be between 1400 and 1746 posts today. The low number of posts on the 29th is weighting the data weirdly, but it's actually not affecting the prediction too much.

I've run the algorithm over the data for about a year and a half, and its margin of error is about +/- 225 posts, and an average of +/- 11% off. That's not really great yet. I'm still working on refining it; I'd really like to see the margin get down to +/- 100 posts.

Right now your algorithm is averaging the past N daily differences to predict today's daily difference.  I suggest adding a couple low-hanging-fruit improvements to see if they help.  Statisticians call these control variables and data scientists call it feature augmentation.

Using the Sheets functions MONTH(date) and WEEKDAY(date), you can put the raw dates into categories.  Work out the average effect for all dates in that category, subtract out those expected effects, do your prediction on the residuals, then add the expected effects back in.  There is some art and some science to this.

I would expect the MONTH category to affect the average posting volume, but the WEEKDAY category might affect the average posting volume or the average difference.

Once you have one or two controls/features working, you'll find it much easier to test-drive others that might occur to you (release dates, FOTF replies, whatever).

[My Name is Immaterial]

Those are really good suggestions. Thank you! I'm going to slowly work towards rebuilding the algorithms to accommodate those.

[MoonyTheHuman]

Well, i might, for laughs, try and use a neural network to predict the contents of posts

[chaotic skies]

Dear god, I don't even want to hear about that thing in action.

[Zanzetkuken The Great]

Well, i might, for laughs, try and use a neural network to predict the contents of posts

Just feed everything in a relevant thread/board into the shitpost simulator and you should get some fairly accurate results, with some proofreading.

[My Name is Immaterial]

Do it.

[Aklyon]

Dear god, I don't even want to hear about that thing in action.

Depends on the source. Mafia posts would be much different from rp posts or emotion thread posts. FotF posts would probably be weird but interesing.

[MoonyTheHuman]

Well, i might, for laughs, try and use a neural network to predict the contents of posts

Just feed everything in a relevant thread/board into the shitpost simulator and you should get some fairly accurate results, with some proofreading.

Sounds even better, and indont have to r program my network!

[Orange Wizard]

Dear god, I don't even want to hear about that thing in action.

Depends on the source. Mafia posts would be much different from rp posts or emotion thread posts. FotF posts would probably be weird but interesing.

Posts from the politics threads, however, will be indistinguishable.

[MoonyTheHuman]

Dear god, I don't even want to hear about that thing in action.

Depends on the source. Mafia posts would be much different from rp posts or emotion thread posts. FotF posts would probably be weird but interesing.

Posts from the politics threads, however, will be indistinguishable.

I bow down to you, master of colors and wizards
Bow down to the orange wizard! Bow!

[Orange Wizard]

Fetch me some tea